Michael Penix Jr. is in line for a breakout year in 2025, according to Bucky Brooks.
Writing on NFL.com, Brooks picked Penix Jr. as one of his 11 offensive breakout players this season.
Zac Robinson, the Atlanta Falcons’ offensive coordinator, has a diverse range of offensive weapons at his disposal. Penix Jr. only started three games last season, but his talent was evident even in a small sample. With a powerful arm and plenty of athleticism in his receiving corps, Penix Jr.’s upside is high.
Brooks wrote, “As offensive coordinator Zac Robinson tweaks the scheme to build around Penix Jr.’s big arm and gunslinger mentality, the Falcons could become a scoring machine, with a spectacular sophomore dropping bombs in a vertical-based passing game designed to produce more explosive plays.”
Twelve months ago, Brooks successfully picked out Jaxson Smith-Njiba, Matthew Bergeron, Bryce Young, and Khalil Shakir as potential breakout players.
Atlanta could be one of the most entertaining offenses in the NFL with Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Darnell Mooney forming an exhilarating quartet around Penix Jr..
Lack Of Penix Jr. Interest
Twenty-one quarterbacks are getting drafted ahead of Penix Jr., according to Fantasy Pros. He’s tied with Matthew Stafford as QB22.
Atlanta projects to have a top-10 offensive line. Their run blocking was elite last season, but their subpar pass blocking is a concern for anyone looking to draft Penix Jr. Even with his impressive arm and the pass-catching weapons at his disposal, the 2024 first-round pick needs time in the pocket.
Brooks is very high on this Falcons offense and he’s not alone. Penix Jr. was aggressive throwing the ball downfield last season, ranking sixth in deep throw rate, but he offered nothing as a runner, which means all of his fantasy value will come from his arm.
Fantasy Outlook
If Penix Jr.’s fantasy production in the final four weeks of last season was extrapolated to the full campaign, he would have been QB23. That feels like his floor in 2025 with a ceiling of QB7 or QB8 if the Falcons offense lives up to Brooks’ lofty expectations.
Ranking 43rd out of 47 quarterbacks in highly accurate throw rate and 21st in catchable target rate, Penix Jr.’s aggression throwing the ball deep could be costly from a fantasy perspective. There are bound to be some disappointing performances, either from a lack of completions or multiple interceptions.
In two-quarterback leagues, Penix Jr. could be a league-winning QB2. He’s going to be a popular sleeper pick in one-quarterback leagues, and if he goes undrafted, there’s likely to be a rush to pick him up on the waiver wire with a favorable early-season schedule.
