The mood in Mexico is downbeat as El Tri seek to escape the mire, but spirits could be lifted by Friday’s 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage draw.
A disastrous run of form since the summer’s Gold Cup triumph has supporters fearing the worst as Mexico prepare to co-host an expanded World Cup alongside the United States and Canada. To boost morale, fans will be desperate to avoid the competition’s heavy-hitters in the upcoming draw.
There are 27 confirmed nations and 16 potential playoff winners that Mexico could face in the group stage, but they will lock horns with just three other sides in Group A next June.
Here are the teams Mexico could face in the group stage.
How Will the 2026 World Cup Draw Work for Mexico?
Due to their status as a host nation, Mexico have been placed in Pot 1 for next summer’s tournament. That means they will avoid all other sides in their pot, including an array of European giants and South American behemoths.
Mexico will be drawn against a nation from each of Pot 2, 3 and 4 during Friday’s draw, but will be unable to face any other team from CONCACAF. No matchups with the USMNT, Canada, Panama, Haiti, Curaçao or playoff hopefuls Suriname and Jamaica will ensue.
Due to the possibility of a CONCACAF side qualifying via the inter-confederation playoff, Mexico cannot be drawn against any team competing in them. That means not only are Suriname and Jamaica out of the question, Bolivia, Iraq, DR Congo and New Caledonia are also off the table.
Potential World Cup Group Stage Opponents for Mexico
Pot 2
| Nation | Federation | FIFA World Ranking |
|---|---|---|
| Croatia | UEFA | 10th |
| Morocco | CAF | 11th |
| Colombia | CONMEBOL | 13th |
| Uruguay | CONMEBOL | 16th |
| Switzerland | UEFA | 17th |
| Japan | AFC | 18th |
| Senegal | CAF | 19th |
| Iran | AFC | 20th |
| South Korea | AFC | 22nd |
| Ecuador | CONMEBOL | 23rd |
| Austria | UEFA | 24th |
| Australia | AFC | 26th |
Pot 3
| Nation | Federation | FIFA World Ranking |
|---|---|---|
| Norway | UEFA | 29th |
| Egypt | CAF | 34th |
| Algeria | CAF | 35th |
| Scotland | UEFA | 36th |
| Paraguay | CONMEBOL | 39th |
| Tunisia | CAF | 40th |
| Ivory Coast | CAF | 42nd |
| Uzbekistan | AFC | 50th |
| Qatar | AFC | 51st |
| Saudi Arabia | AFC | 60th |
| South Africa | CAF | 61st |
Pot 4
| Nation | Federation | FIFA World Ranking |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan | AFC | 66th |
| Cabo Verde | CAF | 68th |
| Ghana | CAF | 72nd |
| New Zealand | OFC | 86th |
| Wales/Bosnia & Herzegovina or Italy/Northern Ireland* | UEFA | 32nd/71st or 12th/69th |
| Ukraine/Sweden or Poland/Albania* | UEFA | 28th/43rd or 31st/63rd |
| Slovakia/Kosovo or Türkiye/Romania* | UEFA | 45th/80th or 25th/47th |
| Czechia/Ireland or Denmark/North Macedonia* | UEFA | 44th/59th or 21st/65th |
*Successful playoff teams will only be confirmed in March 2026
Easiest World Cup Draw for Mexico
Every group at the World Cup must have at least one UEFA nation in it and that means Mexico simply can’t avoid a European foe. As a result, Austria might be their best from Pot 2, despite being slightly higher in the rankings than Australia.
Former World Cup hosts South Africa are the lowest-ranked side from Pot 3, just behind 2034 hosts Saudi Arabia. Mexico faced the CAF outfit in the opening match of the tournament in 2010, drawing 1–1 in that encounter.
With 149th-ranked playoff side New Caledonia not an option for Mexico, their OFC rivals New Zealand are El Tri’s easiest Pot 4 opponents.
| Nation | Pot | FIFA World Ranking |
|---|---|---|
| Austria | 2 | 24th |
| South Africa | 3 | 61st |
| New Zealand | 4 | 86th |
Hardest World Cup Draw for Mexico
Mexico’s toughest group would consist of two UEFA sides, including 2018 finalists and 2022 semifinalists Croatia from Pot 2. Zlatko Dalić’s men are well-versed in deep World Cup runs and have an abundance of quality across the pitch.
Norway are technically the toughest Pot 3 side, but no more than two UEFA sides can feature in the same group—and Mexico could face an even higher-ranked team from the federation from Pot 4. That means Egypt, who are only five places below the Norwegians, could prove the sternest test.
Italy are 12th in the rankings but will need to make the cut via the playoffs having been burnt by Norway in qualification. Still, the Azzurri would technically be tougher opposition than Erling Haaland and co.
| Nation | Federation | FIFA World Ranking |
|---|---|---|
| Croatia | UEFA | 10th |
| Egypt | CAF | 34th |
| Italy* | UEFA | 12th |
*Playoff team
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Mexico’s Potential Opponents in 2026 World Cup Draw.
