I just spoke to Grace Legge, a forecaster at the Bureau’s extreme weather desk.
Responding to comments that the apocalyptic weather predicted by the Bureau was not eventuating, she made the point;
While people in Queensland laugh at idea of 40mm of rain mattering, it does matter down here in Melbourne. Roads just aren’t as prepared. Heavy rainfall is dangerous to drive in and the commute will be much worse.
And that’s about where we’re going to leave our coverage of the weather. We’ll resume the blog again if the flooding and storms predicted throughout the state later today hit. The next severe weather warning update will be issued by the Bureau at 5pm.
The latest advice from the Bureau states that a low pressure system will develop on the trough over northwestern Victoria later today, then move slowly south-eastwards. Milder, less humid southerly winds will develop behind the low, as a new high pressure system forms in the Bight. The severe weather warning remains current for those in the Central, East Gippsland, Mallee, Northern Country, North Central, North East, West and South Gippsland, Wimmera and South West districts.
Updated Severe Weather Warning for #Victoria available here: https://t.co/JrHe5r6hFC pic.twitter.com/5BHNJG5d3B
— Bureau of Meteorology, Victoria (@BOM_Vic) December 1, 2017
Updated
During the Bureau of Meteorology press conference, meteorologist James Taylor was asked: It was suggested this was a 10 out of 10 weather event; is it playing out that way?
His response:
Look, to me, a 10 out of 10 is a rainfall record. We have looked at the current rainfall guidance, and there are locations that we are forecasting in the north-east ranges that could hit records by 20-30 millimetres. A rainfall record to me is a 10, and it is likely we will see them broken. The most likely area is the north-east ranges. That is not to say other areas of the state are not at risk, that is why we have a severe weather warning across a broad area.
Updated
For those sceptical that the weather event will be as extreme as predicted, the Bureau of Meteorology has said the worst of the weather is due to hit in the next five-to-six hours and into Saturday.
The Bureau is holding a press conference in Melbourne right now. Meteorologist James Taylor has just given this update:
The risk [in Melbourne] is going to be up until at least this afternoon and and overnight. People really do need to be aware and watch the radar and stay tuned to the warnings and emergency services in the region.
Elsewhere around the state, it is a very different story. For the north-east ranges, for instance, it is likely we will have extreme rainfall in the next 24-to-48 hours. If you are in low-lying areas, be concerned and prepare. In terms of towns, anywhere on the north-east slopes of the divide, be careful.
If you go back and look at events like this, it is always quite scattered in terms of where the high and low totals are. I think it would be incorrect for me to say specific towns are at risk at this stage. I would say, though, that it is likely the north-east rivers are at the greatest risk for riverine flooding. But we have very strong upper dynamics occurring at the same time as the low pressure system develops. We have got the moisture, tropical moisture, converging.
The thing about the north-east ranges is the ranges, the northerly flow gets lifted and that is what creates the heavy rainfall to be the highest rainfall totals will be along the ridge line of the north-east ranges. Anywhere along the western slopes of the north-east ranges will be at risk especially.
Some high totals to 9am this morning include 44mm at Navarre, 36mm at Seymour and 29mm at Stawell... Lots more rain forecast. Check https://t.co/Ildo3KSAXK for all current warnings for #Victoria. Follow @vicsesnews for warnings and advice
— Bureau of Meteorology, Victoria (@BOM_Vic) November 30, 2017
Updated
Ever wondered how to make the perfect sandbag? As we prepare for the storm to hit, now might be a good time to learn, thanks to this handy guide from Wodonga SES.
With the forecast floods predicted to impact communities across the state, there are a number of things that you can do to make sure you and your property stay safe during flooding, including reading our sandbagging guide & video. https://t.co/GC0fidRLxY
— Wodonga SES (@WodongaSES) November 30, 2017
. #vicstorms #vicfloods pic.twitter.com/Mks8rQbGTz
Don’t think yours are quite up to scratch, Elwood wellness centre.
Elwood #putoutyoursandbags #melbournestorm pic.twitter.com/V6oy5Zsozo
— Alysia Bennett (@Alysia_Bennett) November 30, 2017
Not everyone is convinced about the “most significant rain event in 20 years” claim.
Sorry if this is a stupid question, but is that it for today? Seems... underwhelming? #melbournestorm pic.twitter.com/f5SjuXtDcz
— Matt Walsh (@MattWalshMedia) November 30, 2017
To be fair, we have been burned in Melbourne before. Remember the Great Tornado Threat of 2015 which turned out to be, well, completely underwhelming?
The Great Melbourne Storm of 2015 has passed. Way to stay strong, Melbourne. pic.twitter.com/bUaztkD6pp
— Paul Mackay (@plmcky) November 5, 2015
The BOM would want to be right with this Armageddon forecast for Melbourne - otherwise might overtake the ABS/Census Fail of 2016 #Melbournestorm
— Michael (@LostSneakers) November 30, 2017
This does not bode well for our live-blog, Tom. #vicStorms #melbournestorm https://t.co/iE1Ln5Pzko
— Melissa Davey (@MelissaLDavey) November 30, 2017
Updated
From BOM meteorologist Amanda Peace;
Saturday is likely to be the wettest day. We’ll see the low drift further south and this trough extend up through New South Wales and into Queensland, with a band of heavy showers and thunderstorms.By Sunday, the low is forecast to move out into the Tasman Sea and into Bass Strait … we’ll see southerly winds wrapping in around that low, and on the western flank we’re likely to see another burst of rain for central Victoria, including Melbourne. And further north, the trough will move towards north-eastern New South Wales and into eastern Queensland. And these areas are likely to experience some significant rainfall on Sunday and Monday.
This will be a significant rain and flooding event for eastern Australia.
Updated
Classic Melbourne.
From heatwave to this ... don't ya love Melbourne #melbournestorm pic.twitter.com/0fUIZ2G2ge
— Jake Bozinovski 🐝⚫️⚪️ (@k1ngb0y14) November 30, 2017
Is this hashtag for the weather or the rugby team?! 🤓🤔 #melbournestorm
— Sonia (@Sonia3044) November 30, 2017
This is why we live-blog:
I, too, am a weather geek. And in saying this, I am ready for this... even amid a double-shift with a three-and-a-half-hour break and inner-city travel in between. #Stormageddon2017
— William Olson (@DeadSexyWaiter) November 30, 2017
Some horrific injuries have occurred as a result of people climbing ladders to clear out their gutters and mend their roofs in preparation for the storms.
Ambulance Victoria has just issued a statement saying 12 people were hospitalised in 12 hours due to ladder falls. The most seriously hurt was a man aged in his 80s who suffered head and spinal injuries when he fell from a ladder at a property south of Bendigo. He was flown by air ambulance helicopter to The Alfred hospital in a critical condition.
Ambulance Victoria director of emergency management Paul Holman says he fears more people will be injured in ladder falls as the storms move through;
Unfortunately a fall from a ladder or the roof can easily cause death or result in life-changing injuries. It’s just not worth the risk climbing a ladder if you can avoid it. Consider getting a professional in to do the work. If your house has flood or storm damage, call the SES on 132 500.
Paramedics have also urged people not to drive through floodwaters.
This post about Melbourne's great flood of 1891 feels pretty relevant right now. https://t.co/OVjtz5ta7Y #melbournestorm pic.twitter.com/oGXtQzsyzX
— State Library Vic (@Library_Vic) November 30, 2017
Melbourne city will be hit pretty hard. Work from home, if possible. The after-work commute looks to be a nightmare.
As the rain starts to hit, the parts of the city most likely to be hit by flooding https://t.co/FdQSjWkIuh #melbweather #vicstorms pic.twitter.com/YhiO6sjnNX
— Tom Cowie (@tom_cowie) November 30, 2017
South Australia is also being affected by damaging winds and flash flooding. According to AAP, around 1,500 homes in the state are without power as a result of heavy rains.
The Bureau of Meteorology says more heavy rain and damaging winds are forecast across much of South Australia’s north, and possible flash flooding in some parts. Earlier on Friday, the storms moved across the south-east of the state, dumping heavy rain on some centres, including 19mm at Mount Gambier and similar falls at Naracoorte.
The State Emergency Service said it had taken around 60 calls for help, mainly for fallen trees.
Not great news ahead of the first day of the first pink ball Ashes test at Adelaide Oval.
A road weather alert is current for #Adelaide #FIVEaaNews pic.twitter.com/NRFPTEJ2Sp
— Matthew Pantelis (@MatthewPantelis) November 30, 2017
Updated
Good morning and welcome to our coverage of the extreme rain and flooding across Victoria. Following days of 30C-plus temperatures, Victorians have been warned to prepare for possible loss of life and severe flash-flooding on Friday in what could be the state’s most significant rain event in more than 20 years.
But don’t take my word for it. Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Scott Williams described the situation rather succinctly to Fairfax Media, saying;
If you wake up [on Friday] and think it isn’t going to happen you’ll just have to wait a while. They didn’t think the Titanic would sink either but it did.”
According to the Bureau, the worst of the weather is expected to hit in the state’s central and western districts this morning, extending across remaining parts of the state throughout the day. Three-day rain totals of 100-200mm are expected across most northern and central regions of the state. Elsewhere, totals are likely to be between 30 and 100mm.
Severe Weather Warning for #Victoria has been renewed: https://t.co/JrHe5r6hFC pic.twitter.com/lDtWFAJYlo
— Bureau of Meteorology, Victoria (@BOM_Vic) November 30, 2017
In other words, stay inside if possible. Your umbrella will be useless to you.
The premier, Daniel Andrews, has warned people to not to drive or cycle through floodwaters, and to be prepared for fires resulting from lightning strikes.
This is a serious event. We're not mucking around here. My family – both in Melbourne and in Wangaratta – are taking every precaution. And so should yours. Stay safe.
— Daniel Andrews (@DanielAndrewsMP) November 30, 2017
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