Finally, could this be the year for the Melbourne Rebels to come good? It’s far too early in the season to be talking them up – we’ve done that before only to be disappointed – but they have been quite impressive in the opening two rounds in beating the Crusaders away, and holding tight with a determined Wallabies-laden Waratahs side until the final minutes last week. There’s a starch to the Rebels noticeably absent in previous years. Alas, as these things go in Super Rugby, their prospects, like all the other sides, will come down to squad depth when injuries inevitably kick in. For now though, with a pugnacious forward pack superbly led by Scott Higginbotham and Sean McMahon, the Rebels would fancy their chances against the supposed best of the Australian sides, the Brumbies, in Melbourne on Saturday night.
The Rebels present an interesting case to national observers of the code. On the face of it, the narrative has been focused on their lack of success in Super Rugby and financial woes. However, scratch below the surface and you’ll find a very strong group of juniors – mostly second and third generation Tongan and Samoan Australians – who are attracting the interest of shrewd player agents looking to make long-term investments in player relationships. The Rebels’ Under-15 side won last year’s inaugural national juniors competition, the Junior Gold Cup, knocking off the best juniors from traditional Qld/NSW/ACT state (and Territory) super powers. Keep an eye out for flanker Liam Stone to make his way into the professional ranks after the 2019 World Cup in Japan, if not sooner. He’s the best of a very good bunch. In fact, the overall quality of players coming through the Rebels pipeline is frighteningly good. Hence, one senses, the Australian Rugby Union’s strategic commitment to the Rebels – a financially viable and competitive Super franchise in Melbourne is in the national interest.
The Brumbies are well-spoken of as title favourites, but the statistics coming into this weekend’s away game against the Rebels paint a less than flattering picture. The Brumbies have lost their past six games away from Canberra, including last week’s self-induced loss against the Chiefs. And, of course, the Rebels beat them 32-24 in Melbourne in round seven last year. It will be interesting to see how Brumbies coach Stephen Larkham prepares his side for the Rebels. Tipped to join the Wallabies as attack coach, Larkham was comprehensively outcoached last week by the Chiefs’ coaching triumvirate of Dave Rennie, Wayne Smith and Tom Coventry. (As an aside, is there a causal link between receiving teacher training and being a reasonably successful rugby coach? Dave Rennie, Wayne Smith, Graham Henry, Eddie Jones, Alan Jones, Jake White, Tony McGahan and many others were all school teachers in former lives. On the other hand, some might say there’s Richard Graham at the Reds who completed a Batchelor of Education. Although, to be fair he did have a successful time of it in the UK before returning home and coming unstuck with the Force and Reds. Maybe rugby administrators should take a closer look to see if pedagogy should be included in professional coaching courses.)
Larkham’s failure to adapt to Rennie and co’s back three positioning off Brumbies’ long kicks was where the game was lost, not withstanding the Chiefs leaving it to the very end to snatch the win. It would have been a good experience, nonetheless, for Larkham as he transitions into a Wallabies role, one that perhaps came with the realisation that when it comes to analysis and interpreting performance data to devise effective game plans and tactics (cue Wayne Smith here), the Kiwis are reaping the benefits of substantial and sustained investment in that space. Wales and England too. Big data in sports is, in fact, the game changer. Certainly, real-time data capture in rugby makes a difference. Rugby viewers might see what appear to be random substitutions around the 50-60-minute mark. There’s nothing random about it. It’s all in the numbers. Richard Graham, for all his woes, has been an early adopter. One senses it’s only a matter of time before the tide turns for him and he enjoys success again. Shrewd rugby nations are onto it, the cost-cutting Wallabies not so much. They’re missing out. Bournemouth University academic Bryce Dyer has written an excellent piece on the subject.
The smaller and more recent data sample coupled with the Rebels’ good form suggests another loss for the Brumbies this weekend. However, if the Brumbies do win, it may well be by the skinniest of margins. In the other Australian matches this weekend, the Force host the Hurricanes, and the Reds travel to Dunedin to take on the Highlanders. The match of the round is in Hamilton where the Chiefs duel with the Crusaders. It should be a gem.
Super 15 round three fixtures
Friday
Highlanders v Reds, AEDT 5.35pm
Force v Hurricanes, AEDT 10.00pm
Saturday
Cheetahs v Blues, AEDT 4.10am
Chiefs v Crusaders, AEDT 5.35pm
Rebels v Brumbies, AEDT 7.40pm
Sunday
Bulls v Sharks, AEDT 2.05am
Lions v Stormers, AEDT 4.10am
