ANALYSIS — In the face of all the news about Donald Trump, Gavin Newsom, riots in Los Angeles, budgets, military parades and potential Medicaid cuts, it might be easy to forget that the biggest looming political battle of the cycle is the fight for the House majority.
And while some people consider 2025 to be an “off year,” many key House races have already begun, and each party could have a handful of hopefuls who don’t fit neatly into the congressional candidate box.
Without knowing what the national political environment will be like a year from now, there’s been little movement in the overall battleground. Sixty-three seats are currently rated as competitive by Inside Elections, including 34 held by Democrats and 29 held by Republicans. (Ohio’s 15 seats aren’t rated yet, pending a new map.) House Democrats need to gain three seats for a majority next year.
Both parties are in recruitment mode at this stage of the cycle, and a few candidates, or potential ones, with interesting backgrounds have already emerged and may be able to speak to voters who are skeptical of traditional politicians.
A couple of familiar names, however, have already been ruled out. Army veteran Jimmy McCain, the Democratic son of the late Republican Sen. John McCain, had been mentioned as a candidate for Arizona’s 1st District. And former St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright was recruited to run against GOP Rep. Ann Wagner in Missouri’s 2nd, as reported by Jacob Rubashkin of Inside Elections, but he doesn’t appear likely to go for it.
Republicans
On the GOP side, former NFL kicker Jay Feely played 14 seasons for six teams, including the Arizona Cardinals from 2010 to 2013. Now he’s running for the 5th District in the Phoenix area, where the Republican incumbent, Andy Biggs, is running for governor. Feely faces a competitive primary with former state Rep. Travis Grantham and potentially former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb.
Music composer Marty O’Donnell is running again for Nevada’s 3rd District against Democratic Rep. Susie Lee. O’Donnell, who wrote the soundtrack for the popular Halo video games, finished fourth in the 2024 GOP primary. It looks like there will be fewer Republicans this time around, but the general election will still be tough, even though Trump finished narrowly ahead of Kamala Harris in the Las Vegas-area district.
On the surface, Matt Windschitl is one of 67 Republicans in the Iowa state House. But he’s also a Marine Corps veteran who served in Iraq and works for a beer distribution company; his family owns a gun shop, and he has had one of the best beards in politics. Windschitl is a potential candidate for the rural 4th District, where GOP Rep. Randy Feenstra is exploring a bid for governor. A competitive primary is likely.
In Massachusetts, Tyler Macallister, a member of the Mattapoisett Select Board in the Greater Boston area, is considering a run for the 9th District against Democratic Rep. Bill Keating. Macallister is a harpoon fisher and charter boat captain who currently stars on the Discovery Channel reality show “Harpoon Hunters.” If he runs, though, he’d have a hard time reeling in the incumbent in a district where Harris received 55 percent of the vote, according to calculations by The Downballot.
Tano Tijerina, the chief executive of Webb County in South Texas, gained some attention in December when the elected Democrat announced his switch to the Republican Party during a “Fox & Friends” interview. But he was also an eighth-round pick for the Milwaukee Brewers in the 1993 Major League Baseball draft and pitched for five years in minor and independent leagues, never higher than Single A. If he runs, wins the GOP nomination and knocks off indicted Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar in the 28th District, the 50-year-old would certainly get an invitation to join the GOP baseball team.
Democrats
Former Arizona state Rep. Daniel Hernandez is running in the special election to succeed the late Democratic Rep. Raúl M. Grijalva in the Tucson-anchored 7th District. Hernandez is the former Gabrielle Giffords intern who helped save the congresswoman’s life after she was shot during a constituent event at a grocery store parking lot in 2011. Hernandez, who lost a 2022 Democratic primary for the neighboring 6th District, however, is an underdog in the July 15 primary against the late congressman’s daughter, Adelita Grijalva.
Former OneRepublic bassist Tim Myers is challenging GOP Rep. Ken Calvert in California’s 41st District in Riverside County. The 40-year old musician has written or produced 16 gold or platinum records and had his songs featured in shows, including “Grey’s Anatomy” and “Castle,” and in many commercials. He’ll have to finish ahead of a bunch of other Democrats in the top-two primary to take on the congressman in the general election.
Tony Veland, a two-time national champion on the Nebraska Cornhuskers football team and a Super Bowl XXXII winner with John Elway and the Denver Broncos, could run in Nebraska’s 2nd District. But the 52-year-old former defensive back would have to tackle a competitive Democratic primary for the Omaha-area seat, whether or not GOP Rep. Don Bacon runs for a sixth term.
New York Democrat John Avlon is a familiar face from his time as a CNN anchor and commentator. He lost by 10 points last year to GOP Rep. Nick LaLota in the 1st District on Long Island but could run again.
Democrats are excited about Tejano music star Bobby Pulido potentially challenging GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz in Texas’ 15th District, which stretches from the San Antonio exurbs to the Mexican border. But there won’t be anything official until sometime after Pulido finishes his tour on Nov. 29. Pulido wouldn’t be the first singer elected to Congress. Sonny Bono was elected as a Republican in 1994 from a Southern California seat. And Democrat John Hall, founder and singer of the band Orleans, was elected to a suburban New York City district in 2006, although there was a larger gap between the band’s peak popularity and his win.
Independent
Former Seattle City Councilwoman Kshama Sawant is challenging Democratic Rep. Adam Smith in Washington’s 9th District. The Indian immigrant is a prominent socialist politician but, unlike members of the Democratic Socialists of America, she doesn’t affiliate with the Democratic Party. She won her council races on the Socialist Alternative party line but left to form the Revolutionary Workers party last year. The race could be one to watch with Washington’s top-two primary system in a liberal Seattle-area district, where Harris received 69 percent.
Rating changes
Inside Elections has made ratings changes in two House races.
New York’s 21st District. The upstate seat could open up again if GOP Rep. Elise Stefanik runs for governor. But there won’t be a special election after Trump rescinded her nomination to be U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Even in a potentially difficult midterm cycle for Republicans, Democrats would be hard-pressed to flip a district where Trump received 60 percent in 2024. We’re shifting the rating toward the GOP, from Likely Republican to Solid Republican.
Oregon’s 5th District. Harris received only 53 percent of the vote in this competitive seat now held by Democratic freshman Janelle Bynum. But Republicans have shown no interest in putting up a fight and aren’t even talking about potential challengers. If Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley doesn’t seek reelection and Bynum runs to succeed him, then Republicans could take a fresh look at the open seat, which stretches from Portland to Bend. But for now, Inside Elections is shifting the rating in favor of Democrats, from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic.
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