Vinit Bolinjkar, Head of Equity Research at Ventura Securities, has issued a strong sell call on IT stocks and flagged a broader market slowdown driven by the Hormuz Strait crisis, persistent FII outflows, and the global AI infrastructure shift.
Indian equity markets are facing a confluence of headwinds that could keep pressure on indices in the near term, according to Vinit Bolinjkar, Head of Equity Research at Ventura Securities. Speaking to ET Now, Bolinjkar outlined three key risks — an ongoing oil supply disruption, a structural shift in the technology sector driven by artificial intelligence, and continued selling by foreign institutional investors — that are reshaping India's investment landscape.
IT sector: A strong sell after eight quarters of warnings
Bolinjkar has maintained a sell stance on the broader IT sector for the past eight quarters, and says recent developments are now validating that call.
"The sell-off will continue, margins will compress, there will be pressure on revenues and we will have to let go of talent," he said, adding that all three factors make IT stocks unattractive from a long-term perspective.
The trigger, he notes, is the accelerating rollout of AI-led initiatives by global technology companies, which is beginning to structurally reduce demand for traditional IT services. Bolinjkar advised investors to book profits and avoid IT counters at current levels.
Oil crisis: Damage to Hormuz deeper than markets expected
The sharp two-day correction in Indian markets, Bolinjkar argued, is directly linked to the worsening situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which has disrupted oil supply and rattled global energy markets.
"The damage that has been done in the Hormuz is responsible for everything that is happening," he said. "Even if the war closes, we are not going to see a good recovery because the damage has been done to the oil fields and it will take some time for them to come back to peak capacity."
He warned that oil prices are likely to stay above the ₹100-per-barrel mark, and that the actual price India pays for crude is significantly higher than Brent or WTI benchmarks suggest. The consequence, he said, is mounting pressure on India's fiscal deficit through under-recoveries, and the possibility of a retail fuel price hike. If prices are not raised, the rupee could come under further stress.
With markets already forming lower lows on weekly charts, Bolinjkar said a retest of previous monthly lows cannot be ruled out if the Hormuz situation deteriorates further.
Telecom: Vodafone Idea preferred over Bharti and Jio
In telecom, Bolinjkar flagged a notable switch opportunity. Despite Bharti Airtel holding steady after a recent correction, he sees limited incremental upside in the stock at current levels without a strong earnings catalyst.
Instead, he sees Vodafone Idea as the more attractive play, citing its recent rating upgrade and the potential resolution of issues around bank guarantees. The company's planned capital expenditure of around ₹45,000 crore, once deployed, could help reverse its declining market share and drive subscriber growth.
"Among the telecom stocks, Vodafone Idea would be a very good switch in place of Bharti and Jio," he said.
One bright spot: Consumer sector surprises on the upside
Amid the caution, Bolinjkar pointed to the consumer sector as a positive outlier this earnings season. Strong growth numbers from consumer companies have come as a positive surprise, and he believes the sector has the potential to outperform the broader market even in a slowdown environment.
