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Mark Story

Mark Story: How No. 5 Kentucky and Alabama match up — with a game prediction

How the No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats (18-4, 7-2 SEC) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (14-8, 4-5 SEC) match up at each position — with a game prediction:

Small forward

— Kentucky's Kellan Grady (12 ppg, 44.2% three-pointers) was scalding hot in the first half of UK's 77-70 win over Vanderbilt on Wednesday night, making four of five three-point shots. The 6-foot-5, 205-pound super-senior cooled off in half two, however, missing all three of his trey attempts. Over the past six contests, the Davidson graduate transfer has been dialed in from deep, having made four treys each in five of those six games.

— Alabama's Keon Eliis (12 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 35.3% three-pointers) is having a remarkably consistent senior season. The 6-6, 175-pound product of Eustis, Fla., has scored at least nine points in 13 straight games. In Bama's 100-81 road loss vs. No. 1 Auburn on Tuesday night, Ellis had nine points, eight rebounds, two assists, two blocks and a steal. A former junior-college star at Florida Southwestern, Ellis was not a big factor in last season's Alabama two-game sweep of UK, scoring a combined two points.

Advantage: Alabama.

Power forward

— UK junior Keion Brooks (11.5 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 49% FGs) is coming off the best two-game stretch of his college career. In UK's 80-62 beat down of then-No. 5 Kansas last Saturday, Brooks had 27 points and eight rebounds. A 6-7, 210-pound product of Fort Wayne, Ind., Brooks followed that up with 20 points — 13 in a tight second half — and four boards in Wednesday's victory over Vanderbilt. Brooks did not fare especially well against Alabama last season, averaging 7.0 ppg and 3.5 rpg and making only six of 19 shots in the Cats' two losses to the Crimson Tide.

— Alabama's Juwan Gary (8.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 56.2% FGs) made seven of eight shots and scored 15 points in the Tide's 87-78 upset of defending NCAA champion and then-No. 4 Baylor last Saturday in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge. A 6-6, 218-pound sophomore from Columbia, S.C., Gary did not play as well in Tuesday's loss at Auburn, finishing with three points and six rebounds in 19 minutes. Gary contributed in both Bama wins over UK last season, going for four points and five rebounds in Lexington and six points and three boards in Tuscaloosa.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Center

— Kentucky's Oscar Tshiebwe (16.1 ppg, 15.2 rpg, 61% FGs) had 11 points, 17 rebounds, three assists, four steals and a block in the win over Vandy. For the 6-9, 255-pound junior from the Democratic Republic of Congo it was his 16th points/rebounds double-double of the season. It was also the West Virginia transfer's 12th double-digit-rebounding game in the past 13. The nation's leading rebounder, Tshiebwe has a 1.6 rebounds per game advantage over the NCAA's No. 2 rebounder, Utah Valley's Fardaws Aimaq (13.6 rpg).

— Alabama's Charles Bediako (6.1 ppg, 4.2 rpg, team-high 35 blocked shots) had three points, seven rebounds and three blocks in the loss Tuesday night to Auburn. A 7-foot, 225-pound freshman from Brampton, Ontario, Canada, Bediako was the No. 40-rated prospect in the 2021 Rivals 150 out of IMG Academy in Bradenton, Fla. A limited threat offensively, Bediako has scored in double figures in only four games.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Shooting guard

— Kentucky's TyTy Washington (12.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 4.2 apg) has struggled with his shot in the two games since returning from the ankle injury he suffered early in UK's 80-71 loss at Auburn on Jan. 22. The 6-3, 197-pound product of Phoenix is a combined 4-of-16, 0-of-6 on three-point tries, since returning. Overall, Washington has gone four straight games without scoring in double figures.

— Alabama's Jaden Shackelford (team-high 17.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 37.3% treys) had 26 points in the loss at Auburn. He has scored more than 20 in five of the past six games — and had 19 points in the other. The 6-3, 200-pound junior from Hesperia, Calif., averaged 19.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg and 3.5 assists in Bama's two wins over UK last season, though he did not shoot the ball all that well vs. the Cats — 11-of-24, 3-of-11 treys

Advantage: Alabama.

Point guard

— Kentucky's Sahvir Wheeler (10.5 ppg, 7.1 apg, 46.2% FGs, 27.3% treys) entered the Vanderbilt game having made 28 of his previous 47 field-goal attempts, but went 0-of-8 against the Commodores. The 5-9, 180-pound Houston product did dole out nine assists vs. Vandy and stands third in the NCAA in assists per game. While playing for Georgia last season, Wheeler faced Alabama twice and averaged 17 ppg and 6.5 apg and made 13 of 28 shots.

— Alabama's Jahvon Quinerly (14.8 ppg, 3.4 rpg, team-high 4.3 assists) had 20 points, four rebounds and four assists in the loss at Auburn. The 6-1, 175-pound junior from Hackensack, N.J., did not shoot well at Auburn (7-of-21, 2-of-8 treys) and that continued a trend. In Bama's past seven games, the Villanova transfer has made 31 of 94 shots, 10 of 43 three-pointers. Last season, Quinerly only played in the second Alabama win over UK and finished with five points, two rebounds and an assist in 17 minutes.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Bench

— Kentucky's Davion Mintz (8.8 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 35% treys) played his best game of the season in the win over Vanderbilt, going for a team-high 21 points with three rebounds, two assists and two steals. The 6-3, 195-pound super-senior pulled out of a shooting slump by making six of 11 shots, four of seven treys and five of five free throws vs. Vandy. ... After scoring 11 points in 11 minutes in the win at Kansas, junior forward Jacob Toppin (5.8 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 54.8% FGs) went scoreless in six minutes vs. Vanderbilt. ... Over UK's past three games, sophomore big man Lance Ware (1.9 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 78.6% FGs) has nine rebounds in 24 minutes. ... Meanwhile, the Shaedon Sharpe watch continues.

— Homegrown Alabama freshman point guard JD Davison (8.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 4.1 apg) was ranked No. 14 in the 2021 Rivals 150, one spot ahead of UK's TyTy Washington. The 6-3, 195-pound product of Letohatchee, Ala., went scoreless in the loss at Auburn but had 20 points when the Crimson Tide upset then-No. 2 Gonzaga earlier this season. ... A grad transfer from Furman, 6-8, 215-pound Noah Gurley (7.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 52.5% FGs) had 11 points in 14 minutes at Auburn. ... A 6-6, 185-pound sophomore, Darius Miles (6.7 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 40.7% FGs) has made only one of eight shots over the past two games. ... A 6-8, 220-pound senior, James Rojas (4.7 ppg, 2.8 rpg) is averaging 6.0 ppg and 3.5 rpg over the past four contests.

Advantage: Alabama.

Intangibles and history

— Kentucky leads the all-time series with Alabama 114-40 but the Crimson Tide have won three of the past five.

— This is a "payback game" for Kentucky, which lost to Alabama twice last season, 85-65 in Rupp Arena and 70-59 in Coleman Coliseum.

— Those two Crimson Tide victories made Nate Oats the first SEC head coach to beat Kentucky twice in the same regular season since Florida's Mike White and Tennessee's Rick Barnes each did it in 2017-18 (Barnes beat UK twice in 2018-19, too, but the second one came in the semifinals of the SEC Tournament).

— Overall, Nate Oats is 2-2 vs. Kentucky as a head coach, 2-1 at Alabama. As UK head man, John Calipari is 16-5 vs. the Crimson Tide.

— Alabama is 10-1 this season at Coleman Coliseum with the only loss to now-No. 1 Auburn, 81-77, on Jan. 11. UK is 3-3 in 2021-22 in true road games.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Prediction

Kentucky 94, Alabama 91.

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