Women’s college basketball fans had a handful of complaints targeted toward the Selection Committee on Sunday — like North Carolina getting a No. 6 seed instead of a No. 4 — but, for the most part, oddsmakers don’t have a big problem with how the matchups shook out.
Aside from five games, the higher seed is favored over the lower one in the opening round of games.
But there are those five. And while upsets don’t happen in the women’s NCAA tournament as often as the men’s, they do happen. You remember Harvard over Stanford, right? And Creighton’s run to the Elite Eight last year?
Let’s dive into the five first-round upsets oddsmakers think will happen. All odds are courtesy of DraftKings, and most of the stats referenced here can be found on HerHoopStats.
No. 8 USC vs. No. 9 South Dakota State
The Jackrabbits opened as 6.5-point favorites over the Trojans in Blacksburg, Va.
While picking a team from the Summit League to beat one from the Pac-12 seems crazy, this one isn’t that wild. Oddsmakers might be valuing experience here, and this is the first time USC has been to the NCAA tournament since 2014. Meanwhile, South Dakota State is making its sixth NCAA Tournament appearance since then, including a Sweet 16 run in 2019.
USC is 53rd in HerHoopStats Rating, but South Dakota State is 14th. And if the Jackrabbits do indeed pull off an upset, the Trojans won’t be the first Power 5 team they’ve beaten this year. South Dakota State also has regular season wins over Louisville and Mississippi State – two tournament-bound teams.
No. 8 Ole Miss vs. No. 9 Gonzaga
Despite not winning the West Coast Conference championship, Gonzaga got into the tournament with an at-large berth and opens as a one-point favorite over an SEC team.
Gonzaga comes into this matchup as the best 3-point shooting team in the nation, knocking down 41.5 percent of its deep looks. Meanwhile, Ole Miss is armed with a unit that ranks ninth in the nation in 3-point defense, allowing opponents to make just 25.5 percent of their shots from behind the arc. This is a true clash of styles.
No. 5 Washington State vs. No. 12 Florida Gulf Coast
This one is sort of puzzling. On paper, Washington State seems to have all the momentum as it powered its way to a Pac-12 tournament title, blasting Shania Twain the whole way. But the Cougars open as 2.5-point underdogs against feisty Florida Gulf Coast.
Oddsmakers might be thinking that FGCU has even more momentum than the Cougars do, considering it’s riding a 14-game winning streak. What’s more, FGCU is no stranger to pulling off upsets in March. A season ago, FGCU beat higher-seeded Virginia Tech despite Elizabeth Kitley scoring 42 points.
Under coach Karl Smesko, the Eagles also pulled off upsets to advance to the second round in 2018 and 2015.
No. 7 Baylor vs. No. 10 Alabama
This a battle between two slumping teams, but oddsmakers are giving the Crimson Tide a slight 1.5-point edge over the Bears.
Baylor has lost two straight games and six of its last nine. Alabama has lost four straight games. Neither of these teams are playing particularly well right now and will likely be blown out in the second round by No. 2 UConn.
Alabama is 26th in HerHoopStats Rating, while Baylor is 37th. But Baylor will likely have the best player on the floor in guard Sarah Andrews who averages 15.1 points, 4.3 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 1.3 steals per game. She also makes 2.4 3-pointers per contest.
No. 6 Colorado vs. No. 11 Middle Tennessee State
Oddsmakers are making the MTSU Blue Raiders a two-point favorite here, and for good reason. MTSU ranks in the top 20 in offensive and defensive rating according to HerHoopStats, and they also rank 14th nationally in free throw percentage (78.4), and the 14th best turnover rate in the country at 15.3 percent. Making your free throws and not turning the ball over will help you win games in March.
Meanwhile, Colorado has lost three of its last five games, is a mediocre 56th in offensive rating, and turns the ball over quite often – 15.1 times per game, which is 131st in the country.
MTSU will be a trendy upset pick this week.
