One last time before the summer break, you sent me your questions and I’ll give you my answers. Here we go …
From Brandon Loree (@Brandoniswrite): Based on the moves around the league this offseason, which team would you stamp right now as being your pick to go “worst to first?”
Brandon, I think the easy answer here is the San Francisco 49ers. Before last year’s last-place finish, they’d made four NFC title games and two Super Bowls over a five-year period, they have a top five-ish head coach, they should get a boost with Robert Saleh returning as defensive coordinator and their core, even after a cap cleanse, is still impressive and battle-tested.
Since picking them almost feels like cheating, I’ll try to look at the other seven last-place finishers. That’s where things get hard. The Patriots, Raiders and Giants should be better, but they’re looking up at the Bills, Chiefs and Eagles in their divisions. The Saints and Titans could be starting rookie quarterbacks, and are in divisions with repeat champions. So the Bears might be the surprise.
How would it happen? If everything comes together on the offensive line, Caleb Williams makes a Year 2 leap like Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes once did, and Dennis Allen brings a talented defense together. J.J. McCarthy doesn’t live up to expectations in Minnesota, and the coaching staff drain hits Detroit harder than expected. Likely? No. Possible? I guess.
From Chase Snyder (@ChasingSnyder): If Josh Simmons is recovered and is the starting LT on day 1 of training camp, is there any chance he loses that job to Moore unless he’s a total disaster or is it a real competition?
Well, Chase, it seems to me like Josh Simmons would have to win the job from Jaylon Moore, since Simmons is coming off a significant injury, is a rookie and still hasn’t strapped on a pair of shoulder pads for an NFL practice. Moore, to be clear, was signed at $45 million over three years to be the Chiefs’ left tackle. They had no idea whether Simmons would even be available at No. 32, let alone whether they would take him if they had the chance. So, in April, Moore and Jawaan Taylor were the team’s presumptive tackles.
That said, given the issues the Chiefs had at the position last year, which necessitated Joe Thuney moving outside from guard, Kansas City is going to have a real competition at camp. Moore and Taylor might get the first snaps at those spots. But if Simmons proves to be one of the two best answers at the position, Andy Reid, Matt Nagy and Andy Heck won’t hesitate to put him out there.
There’s too much on the line this year, and every year they have Patrick Mahomes under center, not to approach it that way. So, again, Taylor, Moore and Simmons will go into camp as the team’s top options, and two of the three will come out as starters.
From Old Purchase (@old_purchase): Hey, Albert, do you think all of the Achilles injuries occurring across the NBA/NFL is related to the type of footwear players are wearing off the field/during training/during the game? I feel as if “the games are played faster now” doesn’t tell the whole story.
Old Purchase, at this point, you can call me a multisport evangelist. I think this stuff ties to how athletes are brought up now. I wrote a story over a decade ago at NFL Media on the development of quarterbacks, where Tom House shared some pretty interesting research he’d done into the science of multisport vs. single-sport athletes. From the story …
Just as the high schoolers in Texas are quarterbacking year-round, preteens are being drilled on the position at younger and younger ages, a sign that specialization is hitting football full bore, the way it already has baseball and basketball and hockey.
House, like many others, thinks it’s a little much. His research shows kids should be playing all sports before they turn 12 and continuing with a few after that while putting muscle and nerve together, only beginning to specialize at 17 or so. He points out that [Tom] Brady was a baseball star, and that [Drew] Brees was both that and an exceptional tennis player.
The idea, House told me, went well beyond being a well-rounded athlete. There was an injury prevention element to it, too. The science shows what’s logical, that focusing on one sport at too early an age leads to overtraining of some muscles, and undertraining of others, which puts wear and tear on certain parts of the body without the necessary strength to support it in other parts.
That explains the explosion of UCL injuries, and resulting Tommy John surgeries, with young pitchers in baseball, the uptick in Achilles injuries in basketball players and the rise in ACL injuries in soccer players.
Now, does that mean footwear or the speed of the game isn’t an issue? No. I’m sure there are plenty of factors. But I would say that because fewer football players in general specialize (Mahomes was a baseball star, Joe Burrow was All-State in hoops and Josh Allen was a three-sport athlete), the same issues with single types of injuries that you see in other sports don’t exist quite as much (though the injury rate in football is higher for other, much more obvious reasons).
From 𝐃𝐈𝐄-𝐇𝐀𝐑𝐃 𝐑𝐄𝐀𝐋 𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐓𝐄 (@Eaglesfans9): How is Nick Sirianni viewed by coaches and owners around the league? Does he get more respect inside NFL circles than he does from fans and the media?
Die-Hard, yes, I would say he does. He’s generally seen as a fundamentally good guy who wears his heart on his sleeve, to a fault at times, that’s done a good job leading and adapting as things have changed around him. Is he the best offensive mind in the game? Probably not. But the mistake a lot of people make is thinking that’s a pre-req to being a top-shelf head coach.
He’s made the playoffs all four years he’s been head coach, won two division titles, been to two Super Bowls, won one and is 48–20 in the regular season, good for a .706 winning percentage that ranks fifth all-time. The argument to combat all that is that he’s been handed an All-Star team. Maybe that’s true, but the record is the record, and it’s impressive. (The Eagles, by the way, were 4-11-1 the year before he got there.)
From knick _knack_ (@knick_knack__): The Lions got noticeably worse this off season right? First time in the Holmes/Campbell era?
Eh … I don’t know about that, Knick Knack. The brain drain, of course, is real. Losing OC Ben Johnson and DC Aaron Glenn—and also guys such as passing-game coordinator Tanner Engstrand and defensive run-game coordinator Terrell Williams—chips away at the foundation that Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes have built. Frank Ragnow’s retirement won’t help new OC John Morton, either.
Still, the roster is loaded with ascending, young talent, and Detroit had a full year to prepare for the potential that they’d lose both coordinators. Guys such as Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jack Campbell, Terrion Arnold and Brian Branch are already good and have plenty of room to grow. Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeill are coming back from injury. The defense that rolled out there in the playoffs was a shell of its Week 1 self.
So better health will certainly mean a better defense, and natural growth could make the team more talented on both sides of the ball. Plus, they have until December and January to get all this to a point where a real run at it all is possible. And I still think it is.
From Riley Maleitzke (@MLS_AfterDark): Who’s got an untalked about problem at the offensive line?
Riley, there aren’t very many “untalked about” problems in the NFL these days.
I’ve heard people point to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but I actually think that could wind up being a team strength, with all the young talent they’ve brought in. Last year’s rookies, center Zach Frazier and guard Mason McCormick (Frazier, especially) were really good shoring up the interior alongside veteran Isaac Seumalo. Broderick Jones is coming along, with the switch to left tackle coming this year. And another 2024 rookie we haven’t seen yet, first-round pick Troy Fautanu, will be at right tackle. I think the group, as a whole, will make a leap.
The Texans are another contender with offensive line questions, but those have been talked about plenty.
So maybe I’ll go back to the 49ers, who, again, I think will be really good. They’re losing Jaylon Moore to the Chiefs and guard Aaron Banks (who got a big payday in Green Bay). Trent Williams is still great, but he’s going into his 16th season, turns 37 next month, and has been nicked up the past few years. There is some promising young talent there (Dominick Puni is one to watch), but the depth is fair to question. Their NFC West rivals, the Los Angeles Rams, could have some issues up front, too, with left tackle Alaric Jackson out indefinitely with blood clots.
From Andrew (@AggyAllDaY): Is Daniel Jones running away with the Colts QB competition while Richardson is hurt? Is there any way Richardson has a chance to win the job back if/when he comes back from injury?
Andrew, my understanding is Daniel Jones had a really solid spring. And since Anthony Richardson was sidelined with the injury to his throwing shoulder, it’s hard to see how there wouldn’t be a gap between the two—based on where Richardson was at the end of the season, which necessitated the team signing Jones in the first place.
That said, sure, Richardson can win the job back. The team spent the No. 4 pick on him in 2023. The GM and coach who took him are still in-house. Logically, if the pick is one that could get Chris Ballard and Shane Steichen fired, both would have a vested interest in winding up being right about it, in the end. So there’s no reason for anyone there not to want the light to come on for Richardson.
Of course, this is Steichen’s third year, which means the time to show promise is over, and the time to perform is now. So winning is the ultimate priority.
From Jamara Hudson (@jamara23732): Do you believe the Detroit Lions will extend Aidan Hutchinson before the season begins?
Jamara, I bet they’ll try, and that’s because I think he’s going to continue to look really good, and that’s a smart organization that knows how to get ahead of these things. Last year, they were aggressive in getting 2021 rookies Penei Sewell and Amon-Ra St. Brown extended as they were eligible for new deals, and the team saved money, and made the players happy, in doing it that way.
I’d imagine the approach will be similar with Hutchinson. Where the team lands will be interesting—it may behoove the Lions’ star to wait and see what Micah Parsons gets in Dallas before doing his own deal in Detroit. Either way, my guess is a new deal will get done.
From Karsen (@Broncos4six): What is the most likely outcome of the Bengals’ Hendrickson and Stewart messes?
Karsen, Shemar Stewart will be signed at some point. I don’t think it needs to be as messy as it has been, but I’m not negotiating the deal. This divide, in my opinion, is over something too insignificant to put the season in any sort or peril over it—so you’d think they’ll settle it between now and the start of camp (though you could say they should have already).
The Trey Hendrickson mess is considerably more complicated. The raw number, because of the delay, has grown to where it feels like it’d need to be in the mid-30s, which is where Danielle Hunter and Maxx Crosby now are, at least. How the deal is structured is also muddied by the fact that the Bengals went outside their normal rules to do Ja’Marr Chase’s deal, but didn’t really do that for Tee Higgins. Then, there’s all the water under the bridge.
This, of course, is the third summer the Bengals have been here with Hendrickson, who signed initially in the COVID-19-affected offseason of 2021, who has 35 sacks the past two years, and who has only the one-year, Band-Aid extension of ’22 to show for the past two offseasons of negotiating. I don’t know what it’ll take to get something done. But I know it hasn’t been easy, and won’t be easy, to find middle ground.
From N.R. (@Bears_Dubz):Will the Bears look to add to the RB or edge position before the season starts or are they happy with what they have?
N.R., I think that’s all relative to what’s out there. So they’ll get a look at D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson at running back, and Montez Sweat and Dayo Odeyingbo (who plays some inside on passing downs) on the edges when the pads go on, and then maybe consider guys such as Jamaal Williams at running back or Za’Darius Smith or Matthew Judon as edge rushers.
From brandon (@JayDanielsMVP): Any word on the Terry McLaurin extension?
Brandon, they have a lot of work to do. I’d expect that work will pick up again when the league comes back from break in a few weeks. But it’s still not in a great place. So we’ll see what happens—there’s plenty of time to get something done.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Mailbag: Teams Most Likely to Go Worst-to-First in 2025.
