When Logan Webb faces Aaron Judge on Wednesday night in the 2026 MLB season opener, he better not leave a pitch in the center lane of the strike zone. The Giants righthander knows too well what his WBC teammate and Yankees slugger does with those pitches.
Judge is 3-for-7 against Webb. All three hits are extra-base hits—a double and two home runs. All three hits resulted from center-lane strikes by Webb, two on sinkers and one on a changeup. You could throw a coffee can over the location of those pitches:
You might think those pitches appear to be good pitches for Webb, a groundball pitcher who throws 57% sinkers and changeups. They are not.
Firstly, Webb is at his best working just below the strike zone, not just above its bottom rail. Batters last year hit .299 and slugged .441 against his low strikes (bottom third of the zone). Both rates ranked 58th among starting pitchers.
Secondly, any in-zone fastball thrown to Judge is asking for trouble. Judge destroys fastballs over the plate. Last year, Judge recorded the highest slugging percentage against in-zone heaters by any player in any year over the past 16 seasons with a minimum of 2,000 pitches faced. He also has the second highest such slug (2022) and the third highest (’17) over that span.
| Highest SLG vs. In-Zone Fastballs, 2010–25 | Year | SLG |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Aaron Judge | 2025 | .964 |
| 2. Aaron Judge | 2022 | .896 |
| 3. Aaron Judge | 2017 | .886 |
| 4. Josh Hamilton | 2010 | .885 |
That slug last year for Judge against fastballs in the zone is absurd. The average MLB hitter slugs .467 on those pitches. Judge’s slug was more than double the MLB average.
So how should Webb approach Judge? Play keep-away; changeups and sweepers in the bottom far corner of the strike zone. Here are the pitch locations of the four times Webb retired Judge—three times on strikeouts.
I highlighted the tiny box in that bottom far corner of the strike zone that pitchers must pierce to keep Judge in the park. Anywhere else? Well, just look at the risk in trying any other spot in the strike zone against Judge:
| Judge vs. In-Zone Pitches, 2025 | SLG |
|---|---|
| Down and away box | .471 |
| Everywhere else | .964 |
More MLB from Sports Illustrated
- Paul Skenes Gives the Most Paul Skenes Response to Facing Mets on Opening Day
- Shohei Ohtani Squeezes In One Last Amazing Feat Before Opening Day
- SI:AM | Can Anyone Dethrone the Dodgers?
- Ranking the Most Intriguing MLB Opening Day Pitching Matchups
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Logan Webb’s Best Shot to Conquer Aaron Judge on MLB’s Opening Night.
