Sir Keir Starmer could avoid the worst elections catastrophe facing Labour by doing better than expected in London, according to one of Britain’s leading pollsters.
Some surveys have suggested that the Greens could win control of a string of councils in the capital on May 7, possibly even nine if they do particularly well.
One poll put Labour and Zack Polanski’s Green Party neck-and-neck in Sir Keir’s north London borough of Camden.
National polling also shows Labour’s support down around 20 percentage points compared to just before the London borough elections in 2022.
But Sir John Curtice, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, cast doubt on whether the Greens will achieve a “big breakthrough” in the city by winning several councils.
“Of course, London is full of the kind of young middle class professionals amongst whom the Greens seem to be doing particularly well,” he told the BusinessLDN local elections podcast.
“The Greens are way ahead amongst the 18 to 24 age groups.
“That said, however, because London is Labour's strongest area, and even though the Greens have demonstrated an ability to do better in previous London local elections than you would expect given their current national poll standing, the gap between the two parties is a very substantial one.”
In many of the places in the city where the Greens have built up support, he explained, they are still “a long way” behind Labour.
He stressed that this was because where the Greens are strong in the capital, Labour is “particularly strong as well”.
He added: “Therefore, it's whether or not the Greens could actually do well to move from yes, gaining votes from Labour, picking up the odd seat in wards here or there, to actually making a significant breakthrough.
“It's not clear to me at present that that's where we're at.”
Some polls, though, do overstate Labour’s support.
Many voters also only choose who to vote for in the last few days before an election so polling so far, while it may be accurate, would not have picked up this late decision-making.
Sir John also highlighted a recent poll by JL Partners which showed the Greens are on slightly more than 40% of the vote in Hackney, with Labour just under 33%, and the parties on 30.4% and 28.2% in Haringey respectively.
Overall, Labour was down around 15 percentage points across the capital.
In some boroughs, such as Greenwich, Labour’s support has nosedived by 20 percentage points, he added, but it was still gaining more than 30% of the vote.
The Greens were up on average by around five percentage points across the city.
“Looking across the piece, that piece of polling doesn't suggest that the Greens are going to advance on the scale that’s required to make a big breakthrough, and it does require a very, very substantial movement from Labour to Greens,” said Sir John.
Another poll by More in Common showed the Greens making progress in London, he explained, but not doing “dramatically better”.
Labour is also facing losing power in Wales and a hammering in Scotland on May 7 which could trigger leadership moves against Sir Keir.
But Sir John stressed: “At the moment, I would say it could well be that London might provide the cover that enables Keir Starmer to say ‘it's not quite so bad as you think’, not because Labour won't have lost a lot of votes...but because, again, the opposition will be fragmented, the Greens won't be necessarily advancing sufficiently strongly.
“Reform, of course, apart from some of the Outer London boroughs, are less of a threat.”
So, while Labour may lose seats in the capital, with some of its councils going to no overall control, it still looks like remaining the “dominant party” in the city.
Sir John emphasised that for the Greens to actually get ahead of Labour in London in terms of seats, there would have to be a huge swing of 25% between the two parties.
“You look at the impact of even a 15% swing, you actually discover that the number of wards that that might deliver the Greens, it's actually quite minimal,” he added.
He also explained that elections for some councils, such as Wandsworth and Westminster, had now fragmented from being a two-way battle between Labour and the Conservatives, into a more multi-party contest.
