UK deaths from the coronavirus could be much lower than originally feared according to research.
If Britain follows the same trajectory as China, 5,700 people, not 20,000, are expected to die.
Researchers also believe the peak of the outbreak could be as soon as a week from Sunday.
Prof Tom Pike, of Imperial College London, said: “Social distancing is working against Covid-19 as an
effective parachute across multiple countries.
“That’s no reason for us to cut away our parachutes when we’re still way above the ground.”
The lower figure would mean the UK losing fewer people to coronavirus than seasonal flu.
Experts insist their strategy is working , but warned it will take time to see the effects of the social distancing.
Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr Jenny Harries: “There’s some early indication the public are really now heeding that advice and we thank them for that.
“It’s really important that we continue to do that. We do not expect to see a significant change in our numbers for two or three weeks and so we really need people to stick with us.”
Today saw the biggest leap in the number of people tested – up 8,911, from 104,866 tested to 113,777 tested.
Prof Pike estimates at its peak, the UK will experience more than 250 deaths a day, significantly fewer than the 1,300 a day expected in Italy.
At the moment, the scientists’ best guess for the total number of deaths is 5,700, compared with under 4,000 in China.
Lockdown measures could be lifted by the summer rather than waiting for a vaccine.
Evidence in China shows despite people being allowed to travel again, infection rates have not surged.
Prof Neil Ferguson, of Imperial, said: “This provides hope for countries currently in various levels of lockdown.”
Giving a glimmer of hope, yesterday, Ewart Lockton, 87, left North Manchester General Hospital, after a two-week battle with Covid-19 and pneumonia.
Granddaughter Sophie Edwards said: “He’s now finishing his recovery where he belongs – at home with my grandma.”
