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Liverpool Echo
Liverpool Echo
Sport
Dave Powell

Liverpool and FSG might have to look elsewhere in transfer market after £106m price-tag changes everything

When it comes to getting value for money in the transfer market there are few clubs who have been able to do it as well as Liverpool in recent years.

From Mohamed Salah to Andrew Robertson, from Sadio Mane to Philippe Coutinho, the Reds' more focused and analytical approach to recruitment has paid dividends financially, with players having either achieved their higher ceiling with Liverpool or been sold, in the case of Coutinho's £142m move to Barcelona in January 2018, for a remarkable profit.

It is becoming harder to find those wins, though, and that is one of the reasons for owners Fenway Sports Group considering their longer term strategy with the club, one that will either see them find investment via a new minority partner who may eventually take on the whole club, or selling their majority shareholding to a major bidder of more than $4bn.

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Liverpool's signing of Cody Gakpo seemed to come out of leftfield given his relentless links to Manchester United in recent months. One of European football's hottest properties, the arrival of the 23-year-old Dutchman from PSV Eindhoven came with a price tag of around £40m, a bargain in the current market if he is able to deliver on the hype that surrounds him.

During the summer the Reds committed to smashing their transfer record to land Uruguayan striker Darwin Nunez from Benfica for a deal that could rise to as much as £85m. While it has been an up and down start for the 23 year old there have been enough glimpses of sheer quality among the chaos to suggest that, in time, he will become a major asset to Liverpool's bid to continue to fight on all fronts for trophies. It was, though, a hefty fee to be paid for a striker with just two seasons worth of experience in a league outside of the big five of England, Spain, Germany, France and Italy.

In a situation similar to what happened with Gakpo, where the selling club's requirement for some immediate capital to ease cash flow issues on the horizon, Liverpool managed to negotiate a good deal for Luis Diaz from Porto almost 12 months ago. Indeed, the agreement with Porto for the 25-year-old Colombian for £37m already looks to have been a steal.

But those were opportunistic deals, and the value that had existed in Portugal previously looks set to be diminishing with the likes of Benfica able to leverage their position as being a strong European force that can offer Champions League football to players year in, year out as a tool to make sure they get what is fair market value for players. If anything, they are setting the new market value.

Chelsea were in talks over 21-year-old Enzo Fernandez last week, with Benfica wanting £106m for the Argentinian, a World Cup winner last month. Those talks have gone quiet over the rumoured Liverpool target in recent days, with Chelsea reported to be baulking at the idea of paying more than £100m for a talented if somewhat unproven player, certainly over a period of time. Fernandez has just half a season under his belt with the Portuguese side, signed in July 2022 for just €10m (£8.9m) from River Plate. His price tag has risen almost 1,100 per cent in just seven months.

It is a transfer market that has become something of an arms race, where valuations continue to rise and the demand for spend by fans to ensure their teams compete ensuring that these prices are paid.

"Fees have shot up but there is a degree of rationality to it," Omar Chauduri, chief intelligence officer at Twenty First Group, a sports intelligence company that has worked with a number of top clubs and leagues, told the ECHO.

"It is less about the quality of the league. The weakest teams at the top level in Portugal are probably around League One level, some maybe even League Two. But the likes of Benfica, they would be a top six Premier League team, they are incredibly strong and have proven that with how they consistently fare in the Champions League.

"That regular exposure to the Champions League and how strong they are gives enough confidence to buying clubs that they will be buying a player that can deliver. There is value to be found but there are only so many players who are operating at a level where the biggest clubs feel they could make an impact, and that drives the value, so I do understand it."

Another reason for the interest in Portugal is that the introduction of the Governing Body Endorsement (GBE) post Brexit, where the ability of clubs to obtain work permits for players hinges on them acquiring enough points, has made recruitment more difficult. Portuguese football carries a strong points tally, as does competing in the Champions League and Europa League, making it easier for players to reach the magic 15 to get a GBE.

"A lot of Premier League clubs are keen to have elements of the GBE reviewed," said Chauduri.

"There is a list of leagues where you can get work permits for players fairly easily, Portugal among them, and there is only so much value that you can find given that so many of these teams are shopping in the same market."

The Todd Boehly/Clearlake Capital led Chelsea revolution has seen them spend some £250m on new recruits. They went to Brighton & Hove Albion to sign Marc Cucurella and also took Graham Potter from the Seagulls after Thomas Tuchel was sacked. Paul Winstanley, a key cog in Brighton's recruitment, left the AMEX for Stamford Bridge as director of global talent and transfers.

Brighton's record of delivering value in the transfer market is something that others would like to replicate. Moises Caicedo is a player that has been linked for some time with Liverpool and Chelsea, with the 21-year-old Ecuadorian having joined in 2021 for a small fee straight from the domestic league in his native Ecuador. Now he is a player with a value of £70m or more and, like his teammate Alexis Mac Allister, it is the success in finding the value that has prompted the biggest clubs to open their wallets.

"Everyone has a very wide net now, said Chauduri.

"Brighton have been able to understand the quality of players from outside the big leagues and they have an excellent grasp of the level of competition those players have been playing at and the kind of attributes they would need to be a success in the Premier League.

"For clubs like Liverpool and Chelsea, finding the kind of value that they have been able to previously in Portugal might mean that they have to become more focused on cutting out the middle man and identifying these players at the same stage that the likes of Benfica and Brighton have been able to."

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