Whisper it, but this series between British and Irish Lions and Australia is crying out for the Wallabies to win one of the first two Test matches to add some welcome spice into a tour that is still to find its edge.
Ideally that win will come in the first Test in Brisbane on Saturday, leaving the Lions with a two-win mountain to climb to capture a first series triumph since 2013 and giving Andy Farrell and his squad a meaty challenge to sink their teeth into. Going into a Test at the MCG in Melbourne 1-0 down? That will sound familiar to anyone who has ever watched England in the Ashes.
Alternatively, the Lions could win in Brisbane and then lose in Melbourne to set up a winner-takes-all decider in Sydney. Either scenario generates some much-needed jeopardy given that the quality of the opposition so far in Australia has not been high enough to truly trouble the Lions so far.
Then again, what else did you expect to happen playing against a bunch of Super Rugby franchises missing the bulk of their top players due to Wallaby call-ups? The Brumbies and Waratahs gave the Lions some small frights but no nightmares. At full strength, who knows?
The top contender to give the Lions a bloody nose going into the Test series seemed to be the combined AUNZ Invitational side given the collection of talent assembled, inviting over a number of quality New Zealand players.
Except they appeared to pitch up in Adelaide without a defensive system and the Lions duly won 48-0. Yes, the Lions’ attack looked sharper and the breakdown work was more efficient, but the AUNZ side, still in the “sticking on name tags after arriving at a conference” stage of getting to know each other, were not exactly much of a challenge.
And in that sense, Farrell may have felt slightly ticked off heading to Brisbane. Routs do not help prepare you for Test matches. You want your systems to be stressed, for flaws in your process to become apparent so you can fix them in advance.
The Lions did not get that in Adelaide, whereas the Wallabies needed a buzzer-beater try to get past Fiji in their only warm-up game. Even if Joe Schmidt was holding back a few tactical wrinkles — and given Schmidt’s history, that is a safe bet — that tight win was also the exact kind of hard-fought victory he would have been hoping for.
As for the Lions, aside from a few stray passes into touch and lackadaisical breakdown clearouts allowing teams to turn over possession, they have not really been pushed to the limit since their warm-up defeat to Argentina in Dublin, which after five games on tour feels like it happened a million years ago.
Farrell’s selection decisions
The 48-0 win on Saturday looked impressive on the surface but also felt a little hollow when factoring in the quality of the opposition. So while a number of players in Adelaide performed well enough to make you reevaluate their Test chances — Mack Hansen, Ben White, Ben Earl — those efforts came with an asterisk.
Hugo Keenan and Huw Jones, who did start last Saturday, emerged as frontrunners to play in the first Test at full-back and outside centre due to injuries to Blair Kinghorn and Garry Ringrose.
Outside of those two alterations there were few mysteries. Tommy Freeman is the Lions’ best finisher, James Lowe’s left boot is invaluable. Sione Tuipulotu being paired with Jones and Finn Russell, the Lions’ best player on tour, gives you familiarity, with Jamison Gibson-Park and Russell blending nicely.
The Lions’ scrum has been strong all tour but the unit of Ellis Genge, Dan Sheehan and Tadhg Furlong has been particularly good. Genge gives you carrying power, Sheehan the athleticism of a centre. Maro Itoje, the captain, was always a certainty along with Jack Conan at No8, despite Earl’s best efforts.
The main dilemma has been how the Lions will use Ollie Chessum, either as a blindside flanker to give the Lions an extra lock to strengthen the lineout, or in the second-row alongside Itoje. In the end he makes the bench, tasked along with Earl and Bundee Aki to bring a seismic impact when Australia begin to tire.
As for openside flanker, that position has felt wide open throughout the tour with Jac Morgan, the only Welshman in the squad, up against Tom Curry and Josh van der Flier for a starting berth at openside flanker.
Morgan arguably has played the best of the three, while Curry and Van der Flier can go up several levels. But you always had a sense that Curry, whose work-rate defies belief for a player who has overcome a major hip injury, would be Farrell’s starter in Brisbane.
“That was the hotly-contested part of the side and has been for quite some time, because of the quality we have there,” Farrell admitted. “We feel that combination of [Tadhg Beirne, Curry and Jack Conan] has the right balance, with Tom being the engine that we all know you need for Test rugby.”
The tactical battle
Fun as the warm-up games have been, with the Lions trying to gel in attack and run up the score, the reality is that in the Test series they will play more conservatively.
Freeman is a sharp finisher but he is also excellent in the air at 6ft 4in, regularly winning 50-50s and using his speed to chase after box-kicks. Gibson-Park will certainly enjoy sending up bombs for Freeman to win back, and once you win that kicking battle, you win the field position battle and in theory the Test. Which is also why Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, the 6ft 5in former rugby league star, is so vital for the Wallabies given that Schmidt, famously, is also a huge fan of the box-kick.
A word here on Russell, who has built a reputation as a flair player flinging spectacular passes and carving defences open. One quality of Russell’s often overlooked is that he has developed into a superb tactical kicker, controlling the field particularly well against the Brumbies. Combine that with Gibson-Park’s game management and the Lions can take control.
Schmidt tends to operate with only one fetcher, a flanker tasked with winning turnovers at the breakdown, but the temptation must be there to try to outfox the Lions by playing two athletic flankers even though Wallabies are already missing a ton of of their heftier ball-carriers.
Plus, disrupting the Lions at the breakdown worked for the Waratahs and Brumbies, and Australia have an excellent operator in that field with Fraser McReight when it comes to winning turnovers.
Hosts on the ropes
Back to an earlier point, a Test win for Australia would also be welcome given it would wreck the 3-0 predictions of a Lions whitewash.
Stock in the Wallabies is low on the field and financially off it, and while Schmidt has added some welcome infrastructure and signs of improvement since last year, following their first-ever pool stage exit from a Rugby World Cup back in 2023, he is also about to depart, with Les Kiss replacing him as head coach.
No Lions player would come out ahead of the first Test and suggest that “3-0 is definitely on the table” for the touring side, as Henry Pollock did on Sunday, if the Lions were touring New Zealand or South Africa, because that would be lunacy. The Lions have not achieved a whitewash in Australia since 1904, and yet Pollock’s claim does not feel that silly.
There are talented players in this Wallabies squad — McReight, Will Skelton, Rob Valetini, Len Ikitau, Tom Wright plus Suaalii — but they are not as strong as the group who fell 2-1 to the Lions in 2013, and in a different sporting galaxy from the Australia side of 2001 featuring George Gregan, Stephen Larkham et al who defeated the Lions 2-1 and had recently won the Rugby World Cup.
Schmidt will miss the power of Skelton, Valentini and Taniela Tupou, while his first-choice No 10 in Noah Lolesio is unavailable, hence the recall last week for 34-year-old James O’Connor. Step in Tom Lynagh, son of the famous Michael, to start at fly-half.
“I’m really excited for Tom. He’s a great kid. He’s got a quiet confidence about him. You wouldn’t think that he’s necessarily designed to run a game and dictate what’s happening, but he does have a quiet confidence that gives us a quiet confidence as well,” Schmidt said. “His kicking game is strong. He’s got good acceleration and he’s incredibly brave to a fault.”
A weak Australia is bad for the sport, with a Test win over the Lions giving the game a welcome jolt. In the autumn the Wallabies stunned England at Twickenham, thrashed Wales — to be fair, who hasn’t — were disappointing against Scotland and pushed Ireland close. There are promising ingredients for Schmidt to work with but toppling a Test side featuring the best players from Britain and Ireland? Instinctively it feels as though this Australia side need some more time in the oven.
A Wallaby win benefits the whole game, not just Australia. A historic whitewash may sound nice to Lions fans but it will only reiterate how desperately far rugby union in Australia has fallen, prompting further questions about the validity of future Lions tours there when the appetite to take the Lions to Argentina or France is growing in popularity. Factor all that in, and a shock Wallabies triumph would be extremely welcome.
