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Lebanon to vote in first election since financial meltdown

Vehicles drive past billboards depicting Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, ahead of parliamentary election, in Beirut, Lebanon May 13, 2022. REUTERS/Aziz Taher

Lebanese vote on Sunday in the first election since their country's economic collapse, a test of whether Iran-backed Hezbollah and its allies can preserve their parliamentary majority amidst soaring poverty and anger at ruling parties.

Expectations are however low for a big shake-up of Lebanon's sectarian politics and government, despite the severity of a crisis which the World Bank says was orchestrated by the ruling class, and fury over the devastating Beirut port blast of 2020.

The meltdown marks Lebanon's most destabilising crisis since the 1975-90 civil war. It has seen the currency sink by more than 90%, left about three quarters of the population in poverty and frozen savers out of deposits in paralysed banks.

An electoral campaign billboard is pictured near a closed Hilton hotel that was damaged in the August 2020 port blast, ahead of the parliamentary election, in downtown Beirut, Lebanon May 12, 2022. The billboard reads: 'Beirut will come back'. Picture taken May 12, 2022. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

Analysts believe reform-minded candidates could win some seats this time, but reformers have long struggled to penetrate a sectarian system that divides parliament's seats among 11 religious groups and is skewed in favour of established parties.

The 2018 vote saw heavily armed Shi'ite movement Hezbollah and its allies - including President Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), a Christian party - win 71 out of parliament's 128 seats.

Those results pulled Lebanon deeper into the orbit of Shi'ite Muslim-led Iran, marking a blow to the influence of Sunni Muslim-led Saudi Arabia.

Electoral campaign posters are pictured near a gas station damaged in the August 2020 port blast, ahead of the parliamentary election, in Mar Mikhael neighborhood, in Beirut, Lebanon May 13, 2022. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

Hezbollah has said it expects few changes from the make-up of the current parliament, though its opponents - including the Saudi-aligned Lebanese Forces, another Christian group - say they are hoping to scoop up seats from the FPM. [L5N2VX2W2]

Adding a note of uncertainty, a boycott by Sunni leader Saad al-Hariri has left a Sunni vacuum which both Hezbollah allies and opponents are seeking to fill. Riyadh, Hariri's regional backer for years before their ties soured, has not declared support for a new Sunni leader ahead of the vote.

Raising the stakes, the parliament is due to elect a new president to replace Aoun, whose term ends on Oct. 31.

A general view shows the parliament building, ahead of the parliamentary election, in downtown Beirut, Lebanon May 12, 2022. Picture taken May 12, 2022. REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir

Whatever the outcome, analysts say Lebanon could face a period of paralysis that could further delay reforms needed to address the crisis, as factions barter over portfolios in a new power-sharing cabinet - a process that can take months.

The outgoing government clinched a draft agreement with the IMF in April - conditional on long-delayed reforms.

Prime Minister Najib Mikati, a tycoon serving his third stint as premier, could be named to form the new government, sources from four factions told Reuters. Mikati told Arabic broadcaster Alhurra on Wednesday he was ready to return as premier if he was certain of a quick cabinet formation.

Nabil Bou Monsef, deputy editor-in-chief of Annahar newspaper, said he expected political paralysis after the vote, for which he said opposition candidates had failed to create a single front to compete against established parties.

"This political class as a whole has rebounded strongly because opposition forces collapsed - and didn't know how to get their affairs in order."

MORE POLARISATION

Following months of uncertainty over whether the election would go ahead, polls will open at 7:00 a.m. (0400 GMT) across 15 electoral districts. Nationals over the age of 21 vote in their ancestral towns and villages, sometimes far from home.

Turnout was 60% among expatriates who voted early, with many saying they want change.

Reform-minded candidates have focused on accountability for the economic crisis, ranked by the World Bank as one of the top three declines since the Industrial Revolution, and for the 2020 chemical explosion at Beirut's port, which killed more than 215 people and shattered swathes of the city.

The disaster is seen as a symbol of corrupt governance for which no top official has been held to account.

Yet as the election drew close, another divisive issue took centre-stage: Hezbollah's arms.

Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, whose organisation is designated as a terrorist group by Western governments including the United States, has said a vote for his party would help "defend Lebanon".

Former prime minister Fouad Siniora, a fierce Hezbollah critic who is backing like-minded Sunnis in the election, has sought to counter a Sunni boycott, calling on voters to "preserve Lebanon's Arabness", a push against Iranian sway.

"For me, the most important trend is more polarised politics after the elections, along pro-Hezbollah and anti-Hezbollah lines," said Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center.

(Reporting by Maya Gebeily, Laila Bassam and Timour Azhari; Editing by Tom Perry and Andrew Heavens)

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Dive Deeper:
Lebanon holds first parliament election since financial collapse, blast
Lebanese voted on Sunday in the first parliamentary election since the country's economic collapse, with many saying they hoped to…
Lebanon votes in first election since Beirut blast, economic crisis
Polls opened on Sunday in Lebanon's first election since the deadly Beirut port blast and the country's economic collapse, making…
Lebanon Votes in First Election since Crisis
Lebanon voted Sunday in its first election since multiple crises dragged it to the brink of failed statehood, with the…
Lebanon votes in first election since crisis
Beirut (AFP) - Lebanon voted Sunday in its first election since multiple crises dragged it to the brink of failed…
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Factbox-Who is running in Lebanon's election?
Lebanon holds a parliamentary election on May 15, with candidates vying for 128 seats that are divided among 11 religious…
Lebanon election: Major changes not expected as voting concludes
Voter participation was expected to be higher on Sunday following an increase in diaspora voting last week.
Get all your news in one place