The government could face pressure from Labour MPs to abandon its immigration reforms after this week’s figures, which are expected to show that net migration has declined to its lowest level since the pandemic.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish figures showing net migration – the difference between the number of people arriving compared with the number of those leaving – for 2025 on Thursday.
Migration expert Dr Ben Brindle said the figures could show that net migration fallen below 200,000 for the first since March 2021 – but he caveated that the fall is expected to only be temporary, and the figure could increase after a decline in those leaving the country.
It is understood that Labour MPs plan to use the upcoming figures to pile pressure on the Home Office to reverse its plans for further immigration reforms, which includes applying new settlement rules to people who have come to the UK since 2021.
In plans announced by the home secretary in November, the default qualifying period for Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) will be increased from the current five years to ten years. Meanwhile, migrants could only be eligible for benefits and social housing once they become British citizens and those in the country illegally could have to wait up to 30 years for long-term residency in the UK under the plans.
Labour MP Andy McDonald, who is among those opposed to the reforms, told The Times - which first reported the story - he hoped Thursday’s figures would spark a rethink.
“There is something innately un-British in changing the qualifying period for ILR retrospectively, which will cause massive upheaval for workers who have already come and settled here at our request”, he said.
“They and their families are valued members of our communities. They pay their taxes and contribute positively to our economy and our society.
“To disrupt all of that is beyond cruel and economically foolish, especially given the huge falls in net migration, yet with still sky-high vacancies remaining in social care and other sectors that we cannot otherwise fill. This bad policy needs to be quickly binned.”
But Dr Ben Brindle, of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, said he expects the decline in net migration to only be temporary, explaining that it was driven by a spike in people leaving the UK after restrictions on immigration were introduced by the last Conservative government.
“Net migration stood at 204,000 in June 2025 and we know that the government has been granting fewer visas since then so I’m expecting further declines. Quite how much net migration will fall is incredibly uncertain, though”, he told The Times.
“That’s because there’s an unusually high number of people in the UK who entered after Brexit and still have temporary visas: whether they stay or leave will have a big impact on net migration in the next couple of years.
“Any decline in net migration below around 200,000 is likely to be temporary. Many migrants only stay in the UK for a few years, so higher levels of immigration tend to be followed by higher levels of emigration.
“Once people who came earlier in the decade leave, emigration will decline, so the ‘net’ figure will begin to tick back up. In fact, in five years’ time, net migration levels could look similar to what they are today.”
The latest push back against the government’s migration reforms come as Andy Burnham attempts to return to Westminster via a by-election in Makerfield in order to challenge Sir Keir Starmer.
The Greater Manchester mayor last year became the most senior Labour figure to criticise Ms Mahmood’s reforms, saying it will leave many migrants who have come to the UK “in limbo and unable to integrate.” He would be expected to reverse the plans if he took over as prime minister.
The Home Office has been contacted for comment.
