The game of the year. Again.
On Sunday, the Chiefs visit the Bills in a battle of two teams in unfamiliar spots. Neither is in first place of their respective divisions, and with a loss, there’s a good chance the loser is outside the AFC playoff picture midway through the season.
Still, there’s no denying both are top-flight Super Bowl contenders led by MVP quarterbacks, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Mahomes is second in passing yardage with 2,099, while Allen has accounted for 17 total touchdowns against five turnovers.
Elsewhere, the one-loss Colts take their show to Pittsburgh, facing a Steelers team looking to stave off a third consecutive defeat. And in Houston, the Texans and Broncos lock up in a defensive-minded battle with the first- and fifth-ranked scoring defenses, respectively.
But we start with an NFC North clash, as J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings try to upend the Lions in Detroit.
Vikings (3–4) at Lions (5–2)
Spread: Detroit -8.5
Key matchup: Minnesota’s offensive line vs. Detroit’s pass rush
Key stat: Vikings are allowing sacks on 11.3% of dropbacks, 31st in football.
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX
If the Vikings are going to climb back into the NFC playoff picture, it starts here. Which means their hopes lie in the hands of second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy, making his third NFL start.
McCarthy has been sidelined since Week 2 with a high ankle sprain, and returns facing a well-rested Detroit team coming off a bye week. The Lions are finally healthy up front with Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeill and Al-Quadin Muhammad playing together for just the second time this season. On the year, Hutchinson and Muhammad have combined for 11 sacks and 23 quarterback hits.
Meanwhile, the Vikings’ offensive line has been injured and ineffective in recent weeks. Minnesota has allowed 16 sacks over its past four games. For the year, the Vikings are 31st in sack rate against (11.3%) while sitting 20th in passing yards per game (202.7). This week, Minnesota is hoping to get star tackles Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill back from their knee ailments, but center Ryan Kelly is on injured reserve due to his second concussion of the year.
If the Vikings are to pull the upset, they’ll need the line to hold up, and McCarthy to deliver.
Verderame’s verdict: Detroit 31, Minnesota 16
Colts (7–1) at Steelers (4–4)
Spread: Indianapolis -3
Key matchup: Daniel Jones vs. Pittsburgh’s secondary
Key stat: Steelers are allowing NFL-worst 273.3 passing yards per game.
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
On paper, the Steelers are outclassed and overmatched. On the field, Pittsburgh’s desperation and home crowd might be enough to make for a good game.
The Colts have the league’s best offense in a variety of areas, including yards per play (6.5), points per game (33.7) and points per drive (3.39), while boasting the league’s top rusher in Jonathan Taylor, who has 850 yards and 12 touchdowns. Pittsburgh checks in 30th defensively and dead last against the pass.
However, the Steelers have been respectable against the run, ranking 18th (112.7 yards/game) and 16th in yards per carry allowed (4.3). It’s not great, but it’s decent. Against Taylor and the Colts, it will need to step up and force Daniel Jones to beat the secondary in obvious passing downs, giving that beleaguered group something of a chance.
Jones has been the league’s biggest surprise this year, throwing for 2,062 yards and 13 touchdowns. Still, Mike Tomlin has to want the ball in Jones’s hands on second and third down, and not Taylor’s.
Verderame’s verdict: Pittsburgh 29, Indianapolis 27
Broncos (6–2) at Texans (3–4)
Spread: Houston -1.5
Key matchup: Broncos’ situational defense vs. Texans’ offense
Key stat: Denver is tops in red zone (40%) and third down (29.9%) defense.
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX
If you love a good ol’ fashioned shootout, don’t watch this game. If you love a race to 10, this is nirvana.
The Texans and Broncos have two of the league’s best defensive units, ranking first and fifth in both points and yards allowed per game, respectively. They also have some of the NFL’s top pass rushers in Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter, Nik Bonitto, Jonathan Cooper and Zach Allen. Those five have produced 27 sacks and 65 quarterback hits between them.
All that defense and pressure will give every third down and red zone trip paramount importance, something Houston should be spending all week figuring out. Denver has been excellent in both areas, permitting third down (29.9%) and red zone conversions (40.0%) at the league’s lowest rate. Meanwhile, the Texans’ offense is 25th (35.2%) and 31st (42.1%) in those areas.
For the Texans, this means a potential win might hinge on field goals and staunch defense.
Verderame’s verdict: Houston 18, Denver 16
Chiefs (5–3) at Bills (5–2)
Spread: Kansas City -1.5
Key matchup: Bills’ secondary vs. Patrick Mahomes & Co.
Key stat: Buffalo’s pass coverage is ranked 29th by PFF.
Date, Time, TV: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
All week, this game has been billed as Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen. In reality, the telling matchup will be Mahomes against Buffalo’s secondary.
Mahomes has been brilliant, ranking second in passing yardage (2,099), first in total touchdowns (21), fifth in EPA (0.287) and first in success rate (55.4%). He’s surrounded by a hoard of weapons, including Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, Tyquan Thornton and JuJu Smith-Schuster, all of whom are averaging more than 36 receiving yards per game.
Kansas City’s attack now faces the Bills, who rank 29th in pass coverage by Pro Football Focus. Most of Buffalo’s stock passing numbers are good, including ranking second in sack percentage (10.4%) and passing yards allowed per game (161.9). However, the Bills have faced Andy Dalton, Spencer Rattler, Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. in five of their seven games.
Buffalo will need the safety tandem of Cole Bishop and Jordan Poyer to hold up, along with rookie corner Maxwell Hairston, who will be making his second NFL start. It’s a tall order for the Bills, facing a Chiefs team averaging 30.8 points and 415.8 yards per game since Week 4.
Verderame’s verdict: Chiefs 30, Bills 24
Seahawks (5–2) at Commanders (3–5)
Spread: Seattle -3
Key matchup: Seahawks’ front seven vs. Commanders’ run game
Key stat: Mike Macdonald’s defense has allowed 3.3 YPC to lead the NFL.
Date, Time, TV: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
For the Commanders, saving their season will likely come down to how well they can run against the best run defense in football.
Washington expects to have star quarterback Jayden Daniels back on Sunday night, but will be without Pro Bowl receiver Terry McLaurin. With that in mind, offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury should be leaning on the legs of both Daniels and rookie back Jacory Croskey-Merritt to move the ball.
On the season, Washington ranks second in yards per carry (5.2) and third in rushing yards per game (137.8). To that end, Croskey-Merritt has 402 yards on 4.9 YPC, while Daniels amassed 891 ground yards and six touchdowns in 2024 before being limited to 211 yards in five games this season.
Conversely, Seattle is holding opponents to a league-low 3.3 YPC and 75.7 rushing yards per game. If the Seahawks can maintain those figures against Washington, which only ran for 60 yards on 3.0 YPC against the Chiefs on Monday night, it’s going to be a long game for the home side.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Key Matchups, Predictions for Chiefs-Bills and More NFL Week 9 Games.
