Early evening summary
Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, has told MPS that the government is spending another £300m on measures to get sick and disabled people back into work. (See 3.10pm.) This is the latest concession to Labour rebels, and Kendall set it out in a statement to MPs lasting almost two hours. But many of them remain opposed to the bill, and Kendall was challenged repeatedly to explain why the government is legislating to change the way Personal independence payment (Pip) is paid – before waiting for the outcome the the review it is setting up to consider its future. (See 3.33pm and 4.06pm.) MPs vote on the bill tomorrow night.
DWP confirms 4-point rule won't apply to existing Pip claimants reassessed in future - after Kendall mis-speak implies otherwise
The Department for Work and Pensions has released a letter that Stephen Timms has sent to MPs about the concessions on the welfare bill. It contains a Q&A, and the text of the amendments relating to Pip.
The Q&A covers what will happen to existing Pip claimants if their claims are reassessed. It says:
What has changed?
As part of our measures to strengthen the UC and Pip bill, we will bring forward an amendment for Commons committee so that the 4-point minimum only applies to new claims. This means that no existing claimants will be subject to the 4-point requirement, including if they undergo an award review, whether planned or due to a change in circumstances. Those making a new claim after the measure comes into force (not before November 2026) will be subject to the 4-point requirement.
Earlier in the Commons Liz Kendall seemed to the opposite, implied that existing claimants would be subject to the four-point rule if they ask for a reassessment after November 2026. (See 4.38pm.) But DWP sources have said Kendall mis-spoke, and that the situation is as set out in the DWP Q&A.
Updated
Labour party members think the party should move to the left to win the next election, according to a Survation poll carried out for LabourList.
Published shortly before the vote on benefit cuts tomorrow, the poll found around two thirds of members want to see a move leftwards. In their LabourList report, Luke O’Reilly and Tom Belger say:
Survation asked Labour members what direction Labour should move in order to win the next election.
They were given four options: move to the left, move to the right, move further and faster on the current agenda, and don’t know.
The most popular answer by far was to move to the left, with 64% of members choosing this option.
Moving further and faster on the current agenda was in second place at 31%, don’t know was in third at 3% and moving further to the right was the least popular option at 2%.
Nandy says BBC must explain why its Glastonbury footage of offensive chanting not cut off more quickly
Nandy says the BBC has “rightly” apologised for broadcasting the chanting at Glastonbury.
But she says she want the BBC to explain why the feed was not cut immediately the chanting started, and what due diligence was done in advance.
She says she has also spoken to members of the Jewish community about this. The government takes this '“incredibly seriously”, she says.
She goes on:
As a government, we strongly support freedom of expression, and as culture secretary, I will robustly defend the independence of our broadcasters and the right to artistic expression. But we do not accept that incitement to violence, hate speech or antisemitism is art.
There is a clear difference between speaking out for Palestine, which is the right of everybody in this house and everybody in our country, and antisemitism, which is not and which will never be.
When the rights and safety of people and communities are at risk and when our national broadcaster fails to uphold its own standards, we will intervene.
Nandy tells MPs Avon and Somerset police carrying out criminal investigation into 'death to IDF' chants at Glastonbury
Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, is making a statement about the events at Glastonbury this weekend.
She says she has spoken to the home secretary about whether criminal offences were committed. Avon and Somerset police have just announced they are carrying out a criminal investigation, she says.
(Previously the police were just considering whether a proper investigation was required.)
The Kendall statement is now over. It has lasted almost two hours.
Government wants to do 'far more to support family carers in future', Kendall says
Florence Eshalomi, the Labour chair of the housing committee and another one of the lead signatories on the Hillier reasoned amendment, asked Kendall to confirm that carers would be protected in any future Pip reform.
Kendall said she has long championed what unpaid family carers do. She said existing Pip claimants will be protected. In future, the health secretary wants to do “far more to support family carers in future”, she said.
Adrian Ramsay, the co-leader of the Green party, said today’s statement sounded like a political fix. He urged Kendall to shelve the plans and consult with disabled people on the right way forward.
Kendall said she disagreed. She said the government could not afford to wait, because the system had to be made to work better for disabled people, she said.
Ian Byrne (Lab) said the concessions “go nowhere near far enough”. He would be voting against the bill, he said. He asked Kendall if she could name any disability group in favour of the plans.
Kendall replied:
I understand why disability organisations are making the points that they do. That is their job. Our job is something different. Our job is to take the right decisions that we believe are fair, to make sure we have a system that works for people who need support, but that is also sustainable for the future.
Nadia Whittome (Lab) also asked Kendall to pull the bill.
In response, Kendall said the government was helping sick and disabled people get back into work.
Kendall ignores call from Labour MP for bill to be withdrawn
Labour’s Andy McDonald said MPs were being asked to vote without vital evidence, like the outcome of the Timms review. He asked Kendall to withdraw the bill and co-design welfare reform with the support of disabled people.
Kendall said the impact asssessments did not take account the impact of the employment support programmes that are being beefed up.
Tonia Antoniazzi (Lab) said the worst problems for claimaints in Gower was the incompetence of Capita, the company that carries out Pip assessments.
Kendall asked Antoniazzi to send her details. This was why a review was needed, she said.
Darren Paffey (Lab) asked if carers would be considered by the Timms review.
“Absolutely,” Kendall replied.
Helen Hayes, the Labour chair of the eduation committee and another one of the lead signatories on the Hillier reasoned amendment, asked Kendall to confirm that some people will get Pip under rules that come in before the Timms review concludes. How long would that go on for?
Kendall said she addressed this earlier. (See 4.30pm.) The Timms review would report by next autumn, she said. And the government would try to implement the recommendations as quickly as possible.
Jeremy Corbyn, the former Labour leader, asked if Kendall was really happy about having a two-tier system.
Kendall said “there are many differences in the benefit system already, where people are in different rates and different roles depending on the time that they came into the system.” This applied under previous governments too, she said.
Chi Onwurah (Lab) said 31% of people in the north-east have disabilities – the highest rate in the country.
Kendall said disabled people in the north-east would be fully involved in the review.
Stella Creasy (Lab) said she did not doubt Kendall’s commitment to getting this right. But she said these plans would breach the government’s commitments under the UN Convention on the Rights of People with Disabilities.
Kendall said she would not be making any proposals that were against the law.
Labour’s Yuan Yang said disabled people were paying the cost of the pandemic. She asked if the Timms review would have the “fiscal baseline” of the reforms, including the four-point rule. If that was the case, how could that be viewed as co-production?
Kendall did not address the fiscal point, but she said she genuinely wanted to involve disabled people in the review. And it would consider points, she said.
Vicky Foxcroft, who resigned as a Labour whip over the bill, asked if the Timms review would have the power to review the budget savings being achieved by these cuts. And she asked what would happen if someone requested a reassessment because of worsening health conditions. Would they be reassessed under the old criteria or the new one?
Kendall said that the Timms review was not being driven by the need to save money.
(That did not fully address the question. Foxcroft wanted to know if it would be able to recommend more spending.)
And Kendall said people can request a reassessment. If that happens before November 2026, that will be under the old system. After that, it will be under the new system, she said.
UPDATE: The DWP say Kendall mis-spoke, and that in fact existing claimants will be reassessed in future under the current rules, not the future ones. See 5.58pm.
Updated
Kendall says Pip to be focused on those with 'higher needs' in future, as she again defends legislating before review concludes
Sarah Owen, chair of the Commons women and equalities committee and one of the MPs who signed the Hillier reasoned amendment, again asked why the government is legislating before the outcome of the review into the problem the legislation is supposed to address. She said:
What is the logic of making changes to future claimants before finishing the Timms review, now co-produced for disabled people? Could this lead to not just two tiers, but three tiers – those existing claimants, those new claimants who will lose out and those post Timms review?
Kendall stressed that existing claimants were being protected. In future, it wanted to aim Pip at those with “higher needs”, she said.
Kirsty Blackman (SNP) asked why Labour did not include these plans in its manifesto.
Kendall said reforming the benefits system was in the manifesto.
Marie Tidball (Lab) said she has been saying since April she could not support these plans. Having no public consultation meant disabled people were ignored. She said not doing that meant the DWP was not compliant with the Equality Act.
Kendall said Tidball was a powerful voice. She said the Timms review would be co-produced with disabled people.
Tidball, who is disabled, published this article for the Guardian yesterday on her opposition to the bill.
UPDATE: Tidball said:
Our manifesto committed to championing the rights of disabled people, and to the principle of working with disabled people. Having no public consultation on these plans excludes the voices of disabled people.
This is not just about process, this makes disabled people worse off. The principle of fairness means disabled people have a legitimate expectation to be consulted, and in order to fulfil the Equality Act section 149 public sector equality duty.
Why did the Department for Work and Pensions choose not to consult with disabled people on Pip proposals, and what work will her department do to win back the trust of disabled people?
And Kendall replied:
We are absolutely committed to co-producing this Pip review led by Sir Stephen Timms. She may know we are also setting up collaboration committees on access to work, and on pathways to work, to make sure we really get this right.
I look forward to meeting with her and many other disabled people and their organisations to absolutely make sure we get this right as we go forward.
Updated
Labour’s Rachael Maskell said she welcomed progress, but she could not countenance disabled people being denied support, or 150,000 more people being pushed into poverty.
She asked why MPs were voting on the bill tomorrow when the Timms review of the Pip assessment might recommend changes.
Kendall said no existing claimants would lose out. There was clear evidence employment programmes can get sick and disabled people into work, she said.
Meg Hillier, the Labour chair of the Treasury committee, who tabled the reasoned amendment against the bill signed by more than 120 MPs, asked Kendall to justify the four-points rule being introduced. (See 4.06pm.)
Kendall said the government had to get more people into work, and focus the benefit on those with a “higher need”.
She stressed that existing claimants were being protected.
Debbie Abrahams has also told ITV that the government has gone back on the concessions it offered last week, Jessica Elgot reports.
🚨 MP Debbie Abrahams said that one of the offers the government is making today is not what rebel negotiators thought they had negotiated.
Says there has been “row back” and tells ITV that “We’re not there yet.”
Kendall confirms DWP to press ahead with 4-point Pip eligibility rule for new claimants ahead of review
Debbie Abrahams, the Labour chair of the work and pensions committee, asked why the government is going ahead with a four-point rule for Pip eligibility in the bill before the Timms review concludes. She said the government should not settle on four points when the review should consider this. The review should look at the Pip assessment process, the number of points need to qualify, and the descriptors used to evaluate disability.
She was referring to the key change in the bill, which will restrict Pip to people who score at least four points on one daily living descriptor to qualify for the daily living component. This means someone needing help with washing their lower body, which currently scores only two points, would not qualify on this particular skill.
Kendall said the government was committed to a review. But she went on:
The four-point minimum will be in place for new claimants as we look to make changes for the future.
UPDATE: Abrahams said:
[Liz Kendall] said the four points won’t apply until November 2026, and that the review will report in November 2026, but surely the Pip review should determine the new process.
If this is being truly co-produced with disabled people in their organisations, the review should determine both the new process, the new points and the new descriptors, and we shouldn’t predetermine it at four points.
And Kendall replied:
The review will conclude by autumn 2026 and we will then implement any changes arriving from that as quickly as possible.
I would say that we have to get the right balance here, because we do seek to, I mean, I’ve been a longstanding champion of co-production, including when I was a shadow minister for social care, we have to do that properly. But the four point minimum will be in place for new claimants as we look to make changes for the future.
Updated
Kendall suggests Tories hypocritical in talking about 'two-tier welfare' because they operated same approach too
Kendall is responding to Whately.
She says in talking about a two-tier welfare system the Tories are showing some “chutzpah” because that is what they did, protecting people on legacy benefits when they introduced universal credit, and when they replaced DLA with Pip.
And, responding to Whately calling for the return of face-to-face assessments, she says that is what the government is doing – because the Tories ended them.
Updated
Helen Whately, the shadow work and pensions secretary, is responding for the Tories.
The government is “in chaos”, she says. And she says these concessions will create a two-tier welfare system.
The last government was able to control welfare spending, she claims.
But things went wrong during the pandemic, she says.
During the pandemic, we saw something new, the health and disability bit of our benefit system started to break. The bill is forecast to hit £100bn by 2031 – one in every four pounds of income tax will be spent on health and disability benefits, more than the entire defence budget. This is not fair for the taxpayer, not fair for people who are written off, and certainly not sustainable for the country.
Kendall confirms that people currently getting the health element of universal credit won’t have their payments frozen.
And she confirms that an extra £300m is being spend on employment support. (See 3.10pm.)
She says, overall, the concessions (she calls them “measures”) offered over the last few days will cost £2.5bn by 2029/30.
Kendall says Pip review proposals to be implemented 'as soon as possible' after it reports in autumn 2026
Kendall says the government is reviewing how the Pip assessment work. The terms of reference have been published, she says. (See 3.33pm.)
She says the review is expected to report by the autumn of next year, and that its proposals will be implemented “as soon as possible thereafter”.
Updated
Kendall says there were real concerns about the government’s original plans.
So it is making “positive changes”, she says.
She confirms that people currently getting Pip will not not affected by the new eligibility criteria.
Kendall makes statement to MPs about welfare bill concessions
Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, is making a statement to MPs now about the welfare bill concessions.
There is a live feed at the top of the blog.
She started by making the case for reform. She said:
The welfare state must be fair, both for those who need support and for taxpayers, so it is sustainable for generations to come,
But the system we inherited from the party opposite is failing on all these fronts. It incentivises people to define themselves as incapable of work just to be able to afford to live, it then writes them off and denies them any help or support.
The result is 2.8 million of our fellow citizens now out of work due to long-term sickness, almost a million young people not in education, employment or training. That’s a staggering one in eight of all our young people.
Labour DWP committee chair Debbie Abrahams says she cannot support welfare bill in current form
Debbie Abrahams, the Labour chair of the work and pensions committee and the second signatory on Meg Millier’s reasoned amendment against the welfare bill, has said she cannot support the bill, despite the concessions, ITV’s Romilly Weeks reports. She has posted on social media.
NEW: Debbie Abrahams one of 3 MPs to negotiate the welfare concessions with No 10 says they do not go far enough @ITVNewsPolitics
She says the government rowed back on what had been negotiated and in the current form she will not be supporting the bill
This is even more of a mess for the government than first thought. A costly u turn that might yet not get them off the hook
By contrast, Hillier, chair of the Treasury committee, welcomed the concessions on Friday, calling them a “good and workable compromise”.
DWP publishes terms for reference of Pip assessment review, saying it should be 'single gateway to health-related benefits'
The Department for Work and Pensions has also published the terms of reference to for the Stephen Timms review of the Personal independence payment (Pip) assessment. It has been published at the bottom of the Liz Kendall written statement.
The document says the review is expected to conclude in the autumn of 2026, and that it will be “co-producced with disabled people”.
And this is what it says about the “scope” of the exercise.
The review will include consideration of:
-The role of the PIP assessment – as the future single gateway to healthrelated and disability benefits – in enabling disabled people and those with long term conditions to live independently and fully participate in society.
-The assessment criteria – including activities, descriptors and associated points – to consider whether these effectively capture the impact of longterm health conditions and disability in the modern world. The review will consider both the daily living and mobility elements of the Pip assessment.
-Whether any other evidence should be considered alongside the functional assessment to fairly reflect the impact of living with a long-term health condition or disability, including related to an individual’s personal circumstances and environment.
-How the Pip assessment could provide fair access to the right support at the right level across the benefits system.
-What role the assessment could and should play in unlocking wider support to better achieve higher living standards and greater independence.
I am grateful to all the readers BTL who have been highlighting the story about how in Lancashire Reform UK literally “couldn’t organise a piss-up in a brewery”.
Kendall says DWP to spend extra £300m on what she says will be biggest disability employment support package 'in generation'
Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, has published a written ministerial statement giving details of how the government intends to increase spending on measures to get people off sickness benefits into work. This is one of the concessions offered to Labour rebels.
Overnight the Department for Work and Pensions said that £300m was being “brought forward over the next three years” for this purpose. (See 1.47pm.) Now Kendall is making it clear that this is new money.
She says (bold type from original statement):
We will also commit to spending an additional £300m in the next three years on our investment in Pathways to Work, health and skills support.
At the Spring Statement in March, we announced Pathways to Work funding of:
-£200m for 26/27
-£300m for 27/28
-£400m for 28/29
-£1bn in 29/30
This investment in Pathways to Work support towards employment will now increase to:
-£200m in 2026/27
-£400m in 2027/28 (up from £300m)
-£600m in 2028/29 (up from £400m)
£1bn in 29/30
This is on top of funding and support we are now mobilising through Connect to Work, WorkWell, local inactivity Trailblazers and 1000 new Pathways to Work advisers to support disabled people. This already amounts to the biggest employment support package for disabled people and people with health conditions in more than a generation. The extra money we are announcing today means that we will be able to go further and faster on our new planned investment in work, health and skills support offers, building on and learning from successes such as the Connect to Work programme, which is being rolled out over 2025 to provide disabled people and people with health conditions with one-to-one support at the point when they feel ready to work.
Updated
The Labour MP Chi Onwurah has issued this statement on social media explaining why she is still undecided on the welfare bill.
Here is an article by Richard Burgon for the Guardian explaining why he is still planning to vote against the welfare bill.
In a post on Bluesky Tom Pollard, head of social policy at the New Economics Foundation thinktank, says that the DWP’s estimate that its welfare cuts will push an extra 150,000 people into poverty is an underestimate – because the DWP is taking credit for not implementing changes to the health element of universal credit that were proposed by the last Tory government but that were, in practice, unlikely to be implemented. He says:
The updated poverty impact assessment for the disability benefits cuts once again offsets the impact of not proceeding with the previous government’s proposed changes to the WCA
The impact of actual changes happening in the real world is likely to be closer to 250k people pushed into poverty
Pollard explained this in more detail in a post for the NEF website published in March, when the original impact assessment was released.
Sadiq Khan says he still has 'serious concerns' about welfare bill
Sadiq Khan, the Labour mayor of London, has said the concessions made by the government on the welfare bill do not go far enough. Speaking on LBC, he said:
I welcome the changes announced by the government, and I welcome that the government has pledged to work with disabled people and disabled groups. [See 10.18am.]
But I still have serious concerns about these plans. I’ve met too many Londoners who do work, but through no fault of their own need support from the state, and they’re really worried they’ll lose that.
The mission of the Labour government should be to support people out of poverty and this bill still needs radical transformation to be fit for purpose.
I’m hoping today and tomorrow the government go further to address the concerns many of us have.
No 10 says latest DWP figures on poverty impact of benefit cuts don't 'reflect full picture'
At the Downing Street lobby briefing the No 10 spokesperson said that the DWP poverty modelling released earlier (see 12.15pm and 12.31pm) does
Asked if the government was happy about the assessment that an extra 150,000 people would be pushed into poverty, the No 10 spokesperson said
The poverty modelling shows the effect of these measures on povery in isolation in 2029/30. It doesn’t reflect the full picture.
As always, poverty modelling is subject to uncertainty, and I think you have to look at the record levels of investment in the health and care system £29bn pounds more day to day funding in real terms than in 23/24 to help people get the treatment they need on time to return to work. We’ve delivered 4.2m more appointments since entering office, and we’re investing an additional £1bn pounds a year by the end of the decade to help people with disabilities and long-term health conditions into jobs. And that support will directly help people move into work and become financially independent.
In March, when Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, announced the original benefit cuts, she said that they would be implemented alongside an extra £1bn being being spent on employment support.
As one of the concessions to Labour rebels, this money is being spent more quickly than originally planned. In its news release overnight the DWP said:
£300m will be brought forward over the next three years, increasing total employment support by £2.2bn over four years - upholding our commitment to spend £1 billion per year by the end of the decade.
But the DWP has not given details of what £300m being “brought forward” actually means – ie what the original timetable for spending the £1bn was, and what it is now.
Updated
Lisa Nandy to make Commons statement on 'death to IDF' chanting at Glastonbury
There are three statements in the Commons after 3.30pm:
Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, on the benefit cuts
Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, on the “death to the IDF” chanting at Glastonbury
Michael Shanks, the energy minister, on Prax Lindsey oil refinery
We knew Kendall was making a statement, but it seemed more likely Glastonbury would come up in a UQ.
Here is Michael Savage’s latest story on the Glastonbury controversy.
DWP explains why its update does not say what impact bill will have on number of disabled people in poverty
Here are some more points the Department for Work and Pensions is making about its updated assessment of the impact its benefit cuts will have on poverty. (See 12.15pm and 12.31pm.)
The poverty assessment does not take account of behavioural responses, the DWP says. It explains:
The Department for Work and Pensions’ Policy Simulation Model (PSM) is used to model the impact of policies on individuals and poverty levels. The PSM is a static microsimulation model based on a snapshot of the UK population from the Family Resources Survey (FRS), currently for the financial years ending 2020, 2022 and 2023. It uses caseload forecasts alongside benefit rules to simulate results such as poverty levels for each year, currently up to and including FYE 2030. Because the PSM is a static model it does not capture the behavioural impacts of policies, such as changed work incentives due to reductions or increases in benefit rates, or a small number of additional benefit claims expected as a behavioural response to the reduction in household incomes due to the measures.
This means these figures don’t take account of the fact that, when benefit payments change, people react – and how they react will also have an impact on poverty figures.
But no one really knows what the behavioural impacts of these cuts will be. Ministers believe that the current system give people out of work an incentive to say they have a sickness or disability that stops them working (because those benefits are worth more than standard universal credit). The proposal will narrow this gap, by making the standard rate of UC more generous. Ministers hope this will incentivise people to find work.
But there is an argument that because it will make standard UC a tiny bit more generous, it may reduce the incentive for standard UC claimants to find a job. And with Pip being removed from some people who qualify now who don’t have a four-point need on some criteria, the new rules could incentivise more people to claim on the grounds of a more severe disability.
The DWP claims it has not been able to estimate the impact of the changes on the number of disabled people in poverty. It blames this on the way data is collected.
Definitions of disability in the PSM differ from those used in the Households Below Average Income (HBAI) poverty statistics. It has therefore not been possible to estimate the impact of the package on the level of poverty amongst individuals living in families with a disabled person, as this requires an estimate to be made using the HBAI definition.
It says the poverty figures it is publishing today do not take account of other factors affecting poverty.
As the poverty impacts presented are independent of the underlying trends in poverty, they are not an estimate of the total change in poverty over time.
Benefit cuts will have 'negligible' impact on number of children and pensioners in poverty due to concessions, DWP says
The Department for Work and Pensions has said the impact of its UC and Pip cuts on pensioners and children will now be “negligible” in the light of the concessions announced at the end of last week.
In its updated assessment released today, it says:
Excluding the impact of the additional employment support, it is estimated that there will be an additional 150,000 working age adults in relative poverty after housing costs in FYE [financial year end] 2030 as a result of the modelled changes to social security, compared to baseline projections. The impact on the number of pensioners and children in poverty is expected to be negligible. These latest policy changes reduce the poverty impact because existing recipients are now protected. The poverty impacts occur from potential future recipients no longer receiving the money which was assumed in the baseline projections.
According to the impact assessment published in March, the original plans would have pushed an extra 50,000 children into poverty.
The DWP is also stressing that today’s impact assessment does not take into account the impact of the measures it is planning to get more benefit claimants into work. It says:
This estimate does not include any potential positive impact of the bolstered £1billion annual funding, by FYE 2030, or the additional £300m of support in this SR period that is being brought forward. These measures will support those with disabilities long-term health conditions into employment, which we expect to mitigate the poverty impact among people it supports into work.
After the spring statement Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, claimed she was “absolutely certain” that the proposed welfare cuts would not lead to poverty going up because they would also lead to more people finding jobs.
Updated
DWP says 150,000 more people pushed into poverty by benefit cuts - not 250,000 as forecast said before U-turn
The Department for Work and Pensions has just published an analysis saying that, allowing for the concesssions announced last week, the welfare cuts will still push an extra 150,000 people into relative poverty.
Here is the key chart from the document.
In March, when the government published an impact assessment of its original plans, that said the plans would push an extra 250,000 people into relative poverty.
Updated
Plaid Cymru urges Labour MPs to vote against welfare bill
Plaid Cymru has urged Labour MPs to vote against the UC and Pip bill tomorrow. In a statement its DWP spokesperson at Westminster, Ann Davies, said:
Liz Kendall claims the UK government is working toward a “fairer, more compassionate benefits system,” yet there is neither fairness nor compassion in protecting existing claimants while penalising those who become disabled in the future. People do not choose when to get sick or disabled, and so arbitrary cut-off dates make no sense.
These so-called concessions are nothing more than an attempt by Keir Starmer to quiet dissent within his own party. Over the weekend, Eluned Morgan [the Welsh first minister] hailed these partial U-turns as a personal victory, despite having “reserved her position” on the proposed welfare cuts barely three months ago.
But the people of Wales, whom the first minister is meant to defend, will find little cause for celebration. The economic blow to Wales will be disproportionate, and the UK Labour government’s refusal to publish a Wales-specific impact assessment is a slap in the face to the people of Wales.
Updated
Although Jacqui Smith, the skills minister, ended up mostly speaking about welfare on the morning broadcast round, she was meant to be promoting an announcement about nursery places. The Department for Education says “the government’s school-based nurseries rollout is on track to deliver over 4,000 places this September”.
In a news release the DfE says:
Nearly 200 schools with spades in the ground, that are planning to open in just two months’ time, have reported they are set to exceed the government’s initial projections on places, meaning more high-quality, accessible and affordable childcare options for parents.
Thanks to the brilliant work from school and early years leaders, these new school-based nursery places and thousands more across the provider sector are set to be available in time for working parents to take up the 30 government-funded hours, saving them up to £7,500 on average every year.
Emma Lewell has joined the list of Labour MPs who signed the reasoned amendment saying the UC and Pip bill should be dropped and who are still opposed to the bill, despite the government’s concessions worth £3bn.
Explaining why in an article for PoliticsHome, she said:
Even with the promised concessions, we are still being asked to tighten eligibility criteria. A cut in support for those who will need it the most.
I am one of several disabled MPs, and not once did anyone from the cabinet or No 10 reach out to me. Even worse, it appears they didn’t reach out to the multitude of disabled rights organisations or trade unions in agreeing to those concessions. Why were they not in the room when vital decisions about their lives were made?
These concessions are about party management and saving face.
There is no new bill, there are no new explanatory notes, and there are no impact assessments on the new proposals, and no time for sufficient scrutiny. There has been no formal consultation with disabled people. The majority of employment support won’t be in place until the end of the decade, access to work is in a worse state than ever before, it is unclear what the impact on carers’ allowances will be, and it creates a two-tier benefit system where disabled people will be worse off …
On Tuesday, I will vote against this bill.
Lewell has dyspraxia.
UK’s sale of F-35 fighter jet parts to Israel is lawful, high court rules
Britain’s decision to allow the export of F-35 fighter jet components to Israel, despite accepting they could be used in breach of international humanitarian law in Gaza, was lawful, London’s high court ruled on Monday.
On Friday a reader asked how the Pip concessions announced at the end of last week would affect people receiving DLA (the disability living allowance). Pip replaces DLA, the predecessor benefit for disabled people to help them with extra costs they face because of their disability, but some claimants are still on DLA, which can also be claimed by under-16s, and have not transferred over.
By the time the blog closed on Friday, I still had not had a reply from the Department for Work and Pensions.
But the DWP subsequently came back to say that people moving from DLA to Pip would count as new claimants. They also said they were considering how new eligibility rules for Pip would affect adults moving to Pip from DLA and further information would be published in due course.
The DWP also pointed out that people getting DLA can voluntary apply to transfer to Pip at any time (implying that people worried about missing out should move across to Pip before the new criteria are due to come into force, in November 2026.)
Extra cost of being disabled in UK to rise by almost 12% in five years, says Scope report
The extra cost of being disabled is on course to rise by almost 12% to £14,688 in five years, according to a new estimate published on the eve of a controversial vote to restrict welfare payments for new claimants. Matthew Weaver has the story.
Pip assessment review to be 'co-produced with disabled people', DWP says, as new concessions being set out
The main elements of the government’s U-turn on its welfare bill were announced at the end of last week. They were: a promise that existing Pip claimants will not lose out, because the new eligibility rules will only apply to new claimants; and a promise that existing claimants of the universal credit (UC) health element will not see that benefit frozen, as originally planned.
In its statement overnight, the DWP said the UC health element concession will also apply to new claimants with severe medical conditions. It says:
All existing recipients of the UC health element and new customers with 12 months or less to live or who meet the severe conditions criteria will see their standard allowance combined with their limited capability for work related activity (LCWRA) rise at least in line with inflation every year from 2026/27 to 2029/30.
Today the government is going to publish the draft amendment to the bill that will implement the Pip concessions. (Ministers cannot amend the bill at this point, and so tomorrow MPs will vote on a bill that, as it reads now, would tighten eligibility rules for all Pip claimants.) According to the BBC, the amendment to implement the UC concessions won’t be ready until tomorrow.
Today we will get more details of three other elements of the concessions package.
The terms of reference of the Pip assessment review
When the government published its welfare reform green paper in the spring, it said that Stephen Timms, the social security and disability minister, would conduct a long-term review of the personal independence payment (Pip) assessment process. But this was not due to report until the bill was law.
Now the DWP is implying that this will be more significant than originally implied, and not just focused on technicalities. It says:
The terms of reference for the first ever comprehensive review of the PIP assessment in over a decade will be published today. The review - led by minister for social security and disability Sir Stephen Timms - will ensure the system is fair, supportive and reflects the realities of modern life.
It will be co-produced with disabled people, the organisations that represent them, and MPs with the core objective of delivering better experiences and better outcomes for disabled people and people with health conditions.
The review aims to respond to the changing picture of population health over the last decade including the rising prevalence of long-term health conditions and disability in the working-age population.
A lot of MPs are curious this morning to learn what “co-produced” actually means.
Details of the ‘right to try guarantee’
The green paper said the government said would legislate to ensure “work in and of itself will not lead to someone being called for a reassessment or award review”. This is designed to ensure that, if someone on on sickness benefits gets a job but it does not work out, they can return to the benefits they were on before. Many claimants are scared of getting a job because they worry that, if it does not last, they will end up getting less if they reapply for benefits.
But we don’t know how this will work in practice. For example, how long will claimants get in a new job before the option of returning to benefits closes? Today the government will publish the draft regulations to implement it.
Poverty impact
The DWP also says it is publishing a new analysis of the poverty impact of the bill today.
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Minister refuses to rule out whip being withdrawn from Labour MPs who rebel over welfare bill
Jacqui Smith, the skills minister, was on the morning interview round this morning and she refused to rule out Labour MPs losing the whip if they vote against the government. Asked on Times Radio if this could happen, she replied:
I think what’s important and from – as you say – from my experience as a former chief whip, is to keep talking, keep explaining the moves that the government has already made to recognise some of the concerns.
And asked the same question on Sky News, she replied:
I don’t think talking about punishments, even as a former chief whip, is the constructive way forward here.
In normal circumstances governing parties almost never remove the whip from MPs just for voting against No 10 on legislation, unless something has been designated a confidence vote. But this government defied convention last summer when it suspended seven leftwing Labour MPs who voted in favour of an SNP amendment to the king’s speech saying the two-child benefit cap should be abolished (at the time No 10 argued, because the king’s speech sets out the government’s entire programme, a draconican sanction was justified), and that is why there are concerns rebels could face suspension over the welfare vote.
Given the size of the possible rebellion tomorrow, suspending all Labour MPs who vote against the government seems unlikely. If 50 Labour MPs were to rebel, as some backbenchers predict, and they were all to face suspension, Starmer’s working majority would shrink from 165 to just 65.
But some in government are said to favour a hardline approach to discipline over this issue. Here is an extract from Caroline Wheeler and Gabriel Pogrund’s long read on this in the Sunday Times yesterday.
[Calls for a new approach by No 10 are] only likely to grow louder this weekend after claims — since debunked — that [Morgan McSweeney, Starmer’s chief of staff] planned to stave off the rebellion by suspending 10 Labour rebels every hour until 50 had been reached. At which point McSweeney was said to have insisted the insurrection would be over.
It is understood that McSweeney, who denies the specifics of the allegation, was told that the scale of the rebellion was such that the usual sanctions — removing the whip — would have little or no impact.
Kendall steps up efforts to win over Labour welfare rebels, as Burnham tells MPs to vote against ‘unfair’ bill
Good morning. Last week, on their Political Currency podcast, Ed Balls and George Osborne were talking about the Labour rebellion over the legislation to cut disability benefits – the universal credit (UC) and personal independence payment (Pip) bill – and Osborne asked for an example of an MP who would never normally rebel against the government because they were inherently mainstream and loyal, but who was opposed to this plan. Balls menioned Clive Efford, the veteran MP for Eltham and Chislehurst. They were speaking on Thursday, before the government announced massive concessions to the bill worth £3bn a year.
Those concessions have won over some Labour MPs who were going to vote against the bill tomorrow, and Keir Starmer, instead of facing certain defeat, now seems likely to win the vote – although with a much-reduced majority. But many moderates are still opposed and this morning one of them was on the Today programme. It was Clive Efford.
He told the programme that he was still not in a position to support the bill because the government has not yet published the full assessment of how people will be affected, and whether (as ministers claim) the cuts won’t lead to more poverty because people will get jobs instead. He said:
There are still £3.5bn-worth of savings that are required in these measures and we don’t yet know the poverty impact that they will have. The original motion [the reasoned amendment to kill the bill, signed by Efford and more than 120 other Labour MPs] was asking for more time for us to understand the impact of these changes and that still applies to those people who will be adversely affected.
I think there are a lot of people waiting to hear what the government is saying today who may be inclined to accept what the government has done. For me the situation hasn’t changed for those people who will be adversely affected and until we know and understand the impact on them, we shouldn’t be taking what I think is a leap in the dark.
There are choices that the government can make here; there are other places it can go to identify the resources. What we want to see, and fully support, is measures the government is putting in place to assist people to move into work, the right to try, we support, but we can’t guarantee the savings.
When you’re asking for £3.5bn regardless of the impact of those changes that can only adversely affect people who are in the benefit system.
We cannot make assumptions about how much we can save in the welfare system ahead of actually bringing in those changes and seeing how they work.
As Pippa Crerar and Rowena Mason report in their overnight story, Efford is far from alone; Vicky Foxcroft, who resigned as a government whip over the cuts, has not been won over by the concessions.
Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, is expected to make a Commons statement today giving more details of the concessions. The Department for Work and Pensions issued some details overnight.
At the weekend the continuity rebels won the backing of Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester. Burnham, who has become increasingly vocal in recent weeks in setting out an alternative, more muscular, soft left alternative to what Keir Starmer is offering, was at Glastonbury where he urged Labour MPs to vote down the bill. As Huffpost UK reports, he said:
What’s been announced is half a U-turn, a 50% U-turn. In my view I’d still hope MPs vote against the whole bill when it comes before parliament …
[Labour MPs] face the prospect, if they accept this package, someone could come to their surgery in two years saying ‘why did you vote to make me £6,000 worse off than someone exactly the same, but who was protected because they were an existing claimant’?
I hope they think carefully before the vote, because the vote will create that unfairness and divide in disabled people.
Here is the agenda for the day.
10.30am: The high court will deliver its judgment on a legal challenge to the government’s policy on arms exports to Israel brought by human rights groups.
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
2.30pm: John Healey, the defence secretary, takes questions in the Commons.
After 3.30pm: Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, is expected to make a statement to MPs about the government concessions on the UC and Pip bill.
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