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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Simon Goodley

Keep out of business? Certainly not, minister

The HS2 transport link has already been pooh-poohed by current chancellor Philip Hammond.
The HS2 transport link has already been pooh-poohed by current chancellor Philip Hammond. Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters

The concept of an industrial strategy seems like a topic that must have featured in Yes Minister, the peerless 1980s political sitcom starring Paul Eddington and Nigel Hawthorne.

Yet, oddly, it never did. Still, the series did touch on some themes that look relevant now the policy is back in vogue, such as when Hawthorne’s Sir Humphrey was asked if he shouldn’t believe in policies he implements. “I have served 11 governments,” he explains. “If I’d believed in all their policies, I’d have been ... committed to keeping out of the Common Market, and ... committed to joining it. I’d have been ... convinced of nationalising steel and of denationalising it.”

That seems prophetic given the way our governing party, after years of saying Whitehall must get out of the way of business, is suddenly enthusing about the PM’s new industrial strategy.

This week, two former business secretaries, Vince Cable and Michael Heseltine, plus erstwhile chancellor George Osborne, give evidence to the relevant select committee on this topic – where there may be questions on the HS2 rail link, one of Osborne’s previous efforts in this field. His successor, Philip Hammond, has already pooh-poohed that scheme, saying he believes easily deliverable projects are best – a credo dubbed the “Eddington principle” after its creator. That’s former BA boss Rod, not Paul.

The fund managers working for all of us

You may have noticed that another one of Theresa May’s big themes has been how we need a country that “works for all of us” – especially now everyone has given up pretending we’ve all been in it together.

This latest iteration of capitalism will get a high-profile boost starting on Sunday when “some of the world’s most influential asset owners, asset managers and policymakers” gather in New York to congratulate themselves on how they “are working to make capitalism more equitable, sustainable, and inclusive”.

Yes, it’s the third annual conference on inclusive capitalism, when a group of folk that manage combined assets of more than $38 trillion will convene to “commit to implementing business and investment practices in their companies that extend the opportunities of the economic system to everyone”.

Of course, it is almost impossible to satirise such an event.

It was founded and is run by the proletarian-sounding Lady Lynn Forester de Rothschild – but please don’t say that her Coalition for Inclusive Capitalism does not live up to its name. The event is invitation only.

Expect some margin of error over YouGov

One of the more fascinating debates had by watchers of the global economy over recent years has to be that wrangle about the efficacy of forecasters. Opinion pollsters, economists or City analysts, the argument goes: which group is the most useless?

Well, having slugged it out for years with some heroic misreads, we get a pair of these prizefighters in the same ring this week. The online opinion pollster YouGov is announcing full-year results, which means that some City number-crunchers are assembling guesses about what will be unveiled.

For the record Numis – which, as YouGov’s own broker, you’d assume has a good chance of getting close – now reckons pre-tax profits will come in at £11.7m. The caveat with that punt, however, is that the same firm quickly had to raise its profit estimate by 7% in August after YouGov made a trading statement.

But, what a match the pair seem to be. Like its rivals, YouGov spectacularly called the 2015 general election incorrectly, before following that up by getting this year’s EU referendum wrong too. Still, it has tried to claim it really got it right, despite erroneously calling the result 52-48 in favour of Remain on polling day.

Or as YouGov spins it: “The online polls were right.”

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