BENGALURU: Experts say it will take a few more weeks — a couple at least — for the third wave to peak in Karnataka, as the state lags others in terms of the decline in R value (ability of the disease to spread).
Noted virologists like Dr T Jacob John say, going by projections made by various institutions including Covid-19 Bharat and WorldOMeter Covid India, the third wave should have peaked at the national level somewhere between January 20 and 24. However, Dr John told TOI these estimates are off the mark by at least a week.
“These are all estimates based on fresh cases detected through tests,” Dr John pointed out. “Since many states have reduced the number of tests, the present trends are not real. Therefore, the R value the government is presenting could be misleading. However, considering trends on the ground, the third wave is receding but far more slowly — by at least a week — than projections suggest. ”
Dr John said the actual peak at the national level is expected in the first week of February. And since Karnataka lags the national trend by two weeks, the wave is expected to decline only sometime in mid-February.
Many different agencies havepegged the country’s R value at around 1. 3, a huge drop from 3 in early January. An R value below 1 suggests a decline in the pandemic wave and states like Maharashtra, Delhi and West Bengal have already slid under that threshold.
In Karnataka, the R value is around 3 – it is 2. 5 in Bengaluru, where the third wave has stabilised and has begun to decline, accordin g to KV Thrilok Chandra, BBMP special commissioner (health). Dr MK Sudarshan, chair man of the Covid-19 Technical Advisory Committee, said: “Karnataka appears to be following Maharashtra and Delhi in terms of peaking and variation of the R value. Within the state, its peaks first in Bengaluru and only later in other districts. The la g is normally around two weeks. ”
Dr Sudarshan said experts from Indian Statistical Institute and Indian Institute of Science are supplying TAC with mathematical projections and these suggest the wave will begin to decline by the end of February.
However, D Randeep, health com missioner, said the R value in Karnataka fell to 1. 2 on Monday. While this is a sharp dip from nearly 2 on January 8, experts say it may be due to the decrease in testing. Only 1. 4 lakh tests were conducted on Monday against 2. 2 lakh on Sunday.
