Veteran GOP strategist Karl Rove offered his predictions ahead of key elections across the U.S. on Tuesday — forecasting at least one surprise.
Speaking to Fox News, Rove zeroed in on the mayoral race in New York City and gubernatorial and down-ballot races in New Jersey and Virginia.
“If I were a betting man, I’d say New Jersey could be an upset,” the erstwhile advisor to former President George W. Bush said on November 1, according to Mediate.
In Virginia, he said Republicans will likely suffer minimal losses, while in New York, he said Democratic mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani would emerge victorious.
The elections — which have drawn high-profile endorsements, including from former President Barack Obama — are being closely watched by political operatives.
The results will be seen as a pulse check on the political mood nearly one year into President Donald Trump’s second term.
Citing recent trends, Rove indicated that in New Jersey, Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli, a former state representative, could triumph over Rep. Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic candidate.
“Trump lost it [New Jersey] in 2020 by 16 points,” he told Fox News. “He lost it by six last time around. So the number one thing that the Republican candidate needs to do is he needs to build on the Trump bump.”
He added that the GOP will likely pick up seats in the state legislature.
In an October Quinnipiac University poll, Sherill led Ciattarelli 51 percent to 43 percent.
In Virginia, Rove estimated that Republican incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares will beat Democratic challenger Jay Jones and that the GOP losses will be minimal in the House of Delegates.
He said that, in the gubernatorial race, former Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is “running significantly ahead of” Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears.
In a November Emerson College survey, Spanberger held a comfortable 11-point lead over Earle-Sears, while Jones only outpaced Miyares by 2 points.
“And in New York, we’re gonna get the gift that keeps on giving,” Rove said, predicting Mamdani would defeat former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an independent, and Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa.
“We’re gonna have a Democratic socialist mayor who wins in the low 50s or mid 50s in a city where 62% of the eligible voters are registered Democrats, 22% are registered independents, and only 16% are Republicans, conservatives, or members of little, fringe, left-wing parties,” he said.
Mamdani received support from 43 percent of respondents in an October Quinnipiac poll, while Cuomo and Sliwa trailed him with 33 percent and 14 percent, respectively.
Elections will also be held on Tuesday in dozens of other states, including in California, where voters will decide whether or not to redraw the state’s congressional districts ahead of the 2026 midterms.
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