ARLINGTON, Texas — The countdown begins as soon as Tyler Glasnow steps on the mound. It's like watching NASA's latest launch from a nearby bleacher. You expect power. You expect grace. You expect to see something worthy of capturing for posterity.
And you prepare for the possibility that the majesty will, regrettably and predictably, be delayed once again.
Glasnow is Tampa Bay's favorite expectation. A Cy Young talent with a resume that's less impressive than you might expect. The bundle of skills is enormous, but the execution requires such hairline precision that the results do not always align with the anticipation.
This is the challenge of Game 5 of the World Series on Sunday night. The Rays could not send a more talented pitcher to the mound to face the Dodgers, but there's always a question of which Glasnow will show up.
Is it the Glasnow who gave up one hit and struck out five of the first 12 batters he faced in Game 1? Or the Glasnow who gave up four walks, a single and a homer to the next 11 hitters he faced that night?
"He's more talented right now, if you ask me, than he has been at any point in his career," Rays pitching coach Kyle Snyder said. "I have all the confidence in the world that he's going to show that not just (Sunday night) but going forward. He's going to be a lot of fun for fans to watch for the rest of his career.
"He's a nuclear weapon, man."
Snyder's opinion may be biased, but it's not unusual. Glasnow, 27, has that type of reputation throughout the game. He throws up to 100 mph with natural cut and, at 6-foot-8, seems to be on top of the hitter when he releases the ball. His curveball can be filthy when he's commanding it.
The Rays have been working with him to develop another breaking pitch, but it's not unheard of for a starter to survive on two pitches when they are as effective as Glasnow's.
"Rest in peace, Bob Gibson, but look at what he did in his career with two pitches. And J.R. Richard. That's the type of guy Tyler is," Snyder said. "He's going to give up homers. That's just the way the game is trending. But there is none of what Tyler has done this year, that is the least bit concerning to me as a pitching coach."
The homers, of course, have been an issue. Glasnow's rate of home runs has practically tripled from 2019 to this year. What's odd is that a lot of Glasnow's underlying statistics have remained steady, or even gotten better. His strikeout rate, for instance, was exceptional. And he got batters to swing-and-miss at an even greater rate than 2019.
Those metrics tell the story of a pitcher who should be blowing away hitters routinely. For instance, Glasnow was one of six starting pitchers who struck out more than 34% of the hitters they faced in 2020. The other five had ERAs of 1.63, 1.73, 2.09, 2.11 and 2.38.
Glasnow's ERA was 4.08.
It's that disconnect between what he could be, and what he has actually been. It's too many home runs. Too many walks. Too many outings that take a sudden turn for the worse. And his four-plus innings in Game 1 were a perfect example of dominance mixed with disappointment.
"The best way to describe it, Glas has a high maintenance delivery," Rays manager Kevin Cash said. "You have to factor in he's 6-foot-8. There are a lot of moving parts, and to sync all that together is not the easiest thing to do. We've seen him do it at a pretty high clip. Game 1 he just got out of sync."
There is also the possibility that the Dodgers helped get Glasnow out of his normal rhythm. Fifteen of the 23 Los Angeles hitters he faced took not just the first pitch, but the first two pitches of each at-bat. While hitters swung at 46.2% of his pitches during the regular season, the Dodgers only swung at 34.8% of Glasnow's offerings. Essentially, they refused to chase anything.
"If I'm ahead, if I'm in a pitchers count, most of the time I'm going to have a good amount of success," Glasnow said. "A lot of the reasons I don't is because I'm falling behind 2-0, 2-1. A large majority of that is everyone kind of understands a heater is going to come when I'm behind in the count. It's depending on whether I can land my other stuff for strikes."
The potential is there. We saw it for a long stretch in 2019 before an injury. We've seen it for brief moments this season.
And if the Rays don't see it in Game 5, the 2020 season could be running out of time.
