TAMPA, Fla. — History says the Buccaneers should be wary of a playoff game at Washington. Sometimes, history can be a real twit.
The truth is, there is no way Tampa Bay should lose to Washington. Zero. None. Or at least none that can be justified.
Oh, you’ll hear the “on any given Sunday” line. And somebody might even do the research and discover that mediocre regular-season teams can be quite pesky in the first round of the playoffs.
In fact, of the last seven teams to go into the postseason at 8-8 or worse, six ended up winning their playoff opener. That includes the 2010 Seahawks and the 2014 Panthers, the only other teams that, like Washington, backed into the playoffs with losing records in a 16-game season.
But that history has nothing to do with Saturday night’s game. And a loss to Washington would instantly qualify as rock-bottom in Tampa Bay’s scrimpy postseason scrapbook.
Trust me on this one.
Washington is just not a good football team. Fans in D.C. might argue that their defense was fourth in the NFL in points allowed, and finished strong with five wins in seven games. Those are both valid points, but they also owe much to the team’s schedule.
The NFC East was historically bad this season, and Washington took great advantage of that. The team was 4-2 and outscored opponents by 9.8 points per game within the division. Outside the division, Washington was 3-7 and was outscored by 5.3 points per game. That kind of makes Washington the toughest gang in a class of nerds.
Ah, you say, but what about that pass rush? Washington rookie Chase Young and his colleagues were among the best in the league, right? And a fierce pass rush is the one thing the Bucs should fear with Tom Brady’s mobility reminiscent of a palm tree.
“They have a really talented front seven and they really get after the quarterback, so I think as an offense it’s going to be our job to make sure we control them,” said receiver Chris Godwin. “If you allow them to get after your quarterback and disrupt the game, they’ll really do that.”
Again, there is some validity to this. Young and Montez Sweat are a talented duo, and Washington has a few other legitimate pass rushers. Except their reputation was fattened up by their performances against Philadelphia, Dallas and New York in the NFC East. Washington averaged 4.5 sacks in its six division games. It averaged 2.0 sacks per game against the other 10 opponents.
Okay, you counter, that still doesn’t explain Alex Smith. Since coming back from a devastating knee injury and infection that, at one point, led to serious consideration of amputation, Smith has gone 5-1 as a starter for Washington.
“We don’t see them as a 7-9 team, we see them as a (5-1) team,” said Bucs coach Bruce Arians. “Because every time Alex Smith played, they went (5-1) and had a (plus-five) turnover margin. It’s a different team when Alex is playing and we know that.”
Absolutely true. Smith, 36, is one of the most inspirational stories of the last decade and will probably be a large part of NBC’s pre-game programming Saturday night. As an added bonus, Smith is one of the few quarterbacks alive with a perfect record against Brady. Smith beat Brady and the Patriots in both 2014 and 2017 when he was the starter in Kansas City and put more than 40 points on the board in both games.
Yet, even with that backdrop, there’s not a lot to suggest a repeat performance this weekend. Smith has averaged just 203.3 passing yards per game in his six starts this season with five touchdown passes and five interceptions.
Fine, you say, but what about those 2014 Panthers that slipped into the playoffs with a 7-8-1 record? Weren’t they led by current Washington coach Ron Rivera? And didn’t they beat an 11-5 Cardinals teams coached by Arians in the first round?
That’s true, too. But the Panthers actually went into that game as six-point favorites because injuries had knocked out Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton at quarterback, and left the forgettable Ryan Lindley to start for Arizona.
No matter how you look at it, there is no way the Bucs should lose this game. Tampa Bay had a much better record against a much tougher schedule than Washington.
This isn’t about history. It’s about talent, and Tampa Bay’s is better.
