TAMPA, Fla. — When the Bucs reached the midpoint of the 2020 season with a 6-2 record, what did you envision the rest of the way?
Did you see Bruce Arians holding the Lombardi Trophy aloft in a sea of confetti at Raymond James Stadium? Because, if you said yes, I would totally believe you. Halfway through the season, the offense was clicking, and excitement was high.
But did you see Tampa Bay losing three of its next four games, finishing second in the division, having to go on the road to win three consecutive playoff games, and then crushing Kansas City in the Super Bowl? Because I’m going to call bull on that claim.
I guess what I’m saying is that circumstances rarely work out the way we expect. We might accurately predict what happens at the finish line, but the journey is usually more eventful than planned.
Which brings us to 2021, and another 6-2 record.
We have stood here before, admiring this enticing view. The difference this time is we know what’s possible. We know the talent is here, we also know the pitfalls are many.
With that in mind, here are three reasons why the Bucs will once again be champions of the NFL. And three reasons why the season will end in disappointment.
Be happy
— 1. Tom Brady has won 34 postseason games. Seems like a pretty high number, although how do you quantify it? Well, think of it this way:
That’s more playoff wins than 28 current NFL franchises. More wins than the Chicago Bears, who had their first postseason game in 1940. More than the Giants, Rams, Eagles, Browns, Cardinals, 49ers, Bills and the Washington Football Team, all of whom have been postseason participants since the 1940s.
Other than Brady’s Patriots, the only franchises with more playoff victories are the Steelers and Cowboys. Brady is tied with the Packers, which could make for an interesting January showdown.
The point is not that Brady is history’s greatest quarterback. That’s another discussion. The point is that no quarterback has understood what it takes to win better than Brady. And, at age 44, that hasn’t changed.
— 2. It’s no secret that turnover margin is a huge indicator of a team’s success. What’s important to remember is that few teams have been as savvy as the Bucs when it comes to turnovers.
First, the raw numbers. The defense has 39 takeaways since the start of the 2020 regular season, which is third in the NFL. With only 27 turnovers, that gives Tampa Bay a plus-12 margin, which is fifth in the league.
The impressive thing is how the Bucs capitalize on those numbers. While teams in the NFL have an .808 winning percentage in games with a plus-turnover margin since 2020, the Bucs are a perfect 15-0, including the postseason, during that span.
— 3. The numbers aren’t perfect because the Bucs have alternated between starting four and five defensive backs in various games, but roughly one-third of those starts have gone to backups.
That includes a handful of guys who weren’t even on the roster when the season began.
And yet, the Bucs are 6-2 and the defense has been slightly better than league average in terms of points allowed. Yes, the secondary has given up some big chunks of yardage, but it’s not hard to envision Tampa Bay’s defense getting stronger in the second half, just like last season.
Be concerned
— 1. The Bucs throw the ball a lot, maybe too much. They are averaging just under 44 passes a game, which leads the NFL. No team has ever won a Super Bowl while throwing the ball that much in the regular season. Not Kurt Warner’s Rams, not Peyton Manning’s Broncos, not Brady’s Patriots.
In fact, last year’s team was the most air-friendly Super Bowl winner in history. Tampa Bay was averaging 39 passes a game going into the postseason in 2020.
Of course, you could argue the Bucs are Super Bowl contenders because of Brady and so it’s wise to keep the ball in his hands as much as possible. I don’t disagree. But when the Bucs have lost in the past two seasons, it’s because defenses have gotten pressure on Brady (2.42 sacks a game in losses versus 1.04 in wins) and forced turnovers (1.57 interceptions in losses, 0.42 in wins).
Throwing the ball is less risky when Brady is your quarterback, but 44 passes a game does increase the odds of something going wrong.
— 2. The narrative has been that the Bucs are not blitzing as much this season because of all of the injuries on defense, but the numbers do not back that up.
Pro-football-reference.com has the Bucs blitzing on 39.7% of pass plays after 39.0% last season. Similarly, Pro Football Focus has Devin White averaging two more pass rushes per game than last season while the secondary’s blitzes are roughly the same as 2020.
The difference is the blitzes have not been as effective. Sacks are down, and so are quarterback pressures.
And it’s not just the linebackers and defensive backs. Ndamukong Suh, Vita Vea and William Gholston combined to pressure the quarterback on 10.4% of their rushes last season. They’re down to 7.3 this year.
— 3. The good news? The Bucs caught a break with a fairly easy schedule in 2021. The bad news? They haven’t distinguished themselves against the few good teams they’ve played.
Through the first half of the season, Tampa Bay has faced only three opponents that currently have a winning record. The Bucs are 1-2 in those three games, and that lone victory required a last-minute drive against the Cowboys in the season opener.
So while their 6-2 record looks impressive, they have not fared very well against the type of competition they’ll potentially face in the playoffs. Maybe this is just an early-season fluke, and they’ll turn it on again like they did last December.
We’re just about halfway there, and the journey’s about to get interesting.
