PROFESSOR John Curtice has weighed in on John Swinney’s plan to win a second Scottish independence referendum.
Last week, the First Minister put forward his plans for Scottish independence, saying getting a second referendum could only be achieved if the SNP win a majority in Holyrood.
They are the only party to ever win a majority in the Scottish Parliament, a feat achieved under Alex Salmond in 2011.
But the leading pollster poured cold water over the prospect, saying at The Herald's Unspun Live at the Fringe that it is "most extremely unlikely" the SNP will do so at the Holyrood election next year.
"What is he [John Swinney] doing? He is saying to people: if you want independence, vote SNP. Do not vote for Alba, do not vote for the Greens,” Curtice said.
"He [John Swinney] does not want there to be a fragmented list vote. He wants people to vote for the SNP. The challenge facing the SNP — the thing that has not changed in Scottish politics despite the turbulence of the last two and a half years — is support for independence. We are still around 50/50 on the independence question.”
He added: "Although you hear a lot of talk of people not being concerned about independence anymore, just tell that to most unionist voters. Most unionist voters are deeply concerned about independence.
"Very few people now are willing to vote for the SNP if they are opposed to independence. That is in complete contrast to the position in 2011."
When asked about how he believes the 2026 elections will play out, Curtice said it would be "child's play" for Reform UK to win at least 10 seats.
"I think Kemi Badenoch is becoming more effective, but it is very much a work in progress. The problem the Tories face is that Reform are not just taking voters, they are taking donors, they are taking people,” he added.
"It is very difficult to see any outcome other than the SNP still providing government. What remains highly uncertain is how strong it will be. It could be as low as 45 seats. I think the maximum at the moment is 55 seats.
"But 55 seats — you have only got to find one party to make a deal. With 45 you have got to find two, and that becomes much more difficult.
"I think at the moment it is a race between Reform and Labour over who comes second, and unless the popularity of the Labour government improves, Labour may find themselves in much the same position as they are at the moment."
