LABOUR being ousted from Government in Wales would be a bigger threat to Keir Starmer’s leadership than the SNP winning in Scotland, John Curtice has said.
The top pollster weighed in after reports suggested MPs have warned the Prime Minister that the May elections will be a critical point for him.
Starmer has faced a deluge of bad headlines since taking over the keys to Number 10 last year - from the disastrous winter fuel cuts for pensioners and now watered-down welfare reforms, to more recent scandals with the resignation of Angela Rayner over her tax affairs and the sacking of Peter Mandelson as UK ambassador to the US.
In May next year, the voters in Scotland, Wales and large parts of England will go to the polls as they elect representatives to Holyrood, the Senedd, local councils and all London borough councils.
While ultimately the results will undoubtedly impact Starmer’s ability to hold on to the job of Prime Minister, Curtice has argued that Wales will be the real test.
He says that next year’s elections are “very heavily in Labour Britain”, such as the London boroughs, where the party is likely to see more of a threat from the Greens and Your Party.
In some of the postponed county council elections, Labour will be facing off against Reform in several Tory heartlands, and in Scotland, where the SNP are polling ahead of Labour once again.
But in Wales, the situation is somewhat different.
Labour have dominated Welsh politics for over 100 years. It first won more Welsh seats and votes than its rivals at the general election in 1922, and researchers have previously described it as the longest winning streak of any political party in the world.
Labour has emerged as Wales’ biggest party in every subsequent Westminster election and all six Senedd elections since devolution in 1999.
The last elections in 2021 saw Labour return 30 Members of the Senedd (MS), with the Tories in second place on 16, Plaid Cymru third with 13 and one LibDem parliamentarian.
And, in 2024, Labour won 27 Westminster seats, to Plaid Cymru’s four and one LibDem. But in 2026, Curtice explains that the election is a three-horse race between Labour, Plaid Cymru and Reform.
Polling from YouGov in May shows Plaid Cymru in the lead with 30%, Reform on 25%, and Labour lagging behind on 18%.
Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan (above) has already tried to distance the party from Starmer, previously criticising the “divisive language” used by the Prime Minister when it comes to immigration.
“Losing Government in Wales would be a bigger symbol than failing to oust the SNP in Scotland, because everyone has twigged they’re not going to do very well in Scotland,” Curtice explained. “That’s not new. In Wales, it would be new.”
“They [Labour] did well in Scotland last year, but it’s all disappeared, according to the polls,” he added.
For the 2026 election, Wales will use a closed proportional list system to elect MSs, which means that seats will be allocated based on the share of votes cast for each party in the 16 available constituencies.
Curtice explains that it will be a “battle” between Plaid Cymru and Labour as to who comes first, as it would be difficult to see either party forming a coalition with Reform.
“It’s about who comes first, and therefore who takes the first minister post,” he added.
“But it's going to have to be some kind of Labour-Plaid arrangement.
“If Labour managed to come first, they might at least avoid what will look like disaster, because Wales is not a place where they’re meant to lose.”
Curtice (below) added that while Labour won the recent Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, where Davy Russell became Holyrood’s latest MSP, that “does not in any way countermand that evidence in the polls”.
While Russell won the election, Scottish Labour only won 31% of the vote share (8559 votes), while the SNP returned 29% (7957) and Reform 26% (7088). He added:
“The result was almost exactly what you'd expect given what the polls are saying, and given what the polls are saying, that the 2021 baseline is very favourable, it was a very good one for the SNP.
“Labour are also more vulnerable to Reform in Scotland because quite a lot of their support last year came from people who had previously voted Tory.”
However, Curtice added: "All of this will only matter if Starmer fails to deal with what has always been a fundamental problem of his leadership, which is not showing leadership. This has always been a problem."
