POLLING expert John Curtice said Reform UK “are in business” following their victory in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election.
The Runcorn and Helsby by-election was triggered when former Labour MP Mike Amesbury quit after admitting punching a constituent.
The 2024 result suggested it should be a safe Labour seat – Amesbury won 53% of the vote and a majority of almost 14,700 – but Reform’s Sarah Pochin was the bookmakers’ favourite to secure a by-election victory.
And that she did on Friday morning, after a full recount, with Farage forced to wait before arriving at the count centre in Widnes for his moment of triumph.
Victory by just six votes has set a new record for the smallest majority at a parliamentary by-election since the end of the Second World War.
Curtice told told BBC Breakfast: “The big question we were looking to these elections to answer was, the message of the opinion polls is that Reform are now posing a big threat to both Conservative and Labour, neck and neck with them according to the polls."
The Strathclyde University professor questioned: “Is that really true? And I think we now already know that the answer to that question is yes.
“Ukip never managed to win a parliamentary by-election afresh in the way that Reform have managed to do in Runcorn.”
Curtice said Reform had put in “some quite remarkable performances” as the more evenly spread vote was not a disadvantage to them at local level.
He added: “Reform are in business. They are a major challenge.”
Curtice added: "Reform's seat gains have primarily been at the expense of the Conservatives. That was inevitable, given the party previously held nearly a thousand of the 1641 seats up for grabs.
"Nevertheless, the party will be deeply troubled at suffering a drubbing every bit as severe as the one it suffered in last year's general election.
"On average its vote was down by 25 points since the last time these seats were fought in May 2021, falling most heavily where Reform did best. The party has so far lost more than half the seats it is trying to defend."
Recent polls have boosted Reform’s hopes they could replicate their Westminster breakthrough in Scotland – with one poll putting them neck and neck with the Tories.
In the latest poll tracking voting intentions for the Scottish Parliament ahead of the 2026 election, the SNP lead with 36% backing the party in the constituency vote - but Reform UK registers double-digit support.
Around 14% of respondents say they would vote for the party in the constituency ballot and 12% in the list vote.
Farage did not visit Scotland during the General Election campaign in 2024, but reportedly has his eyes set on Holyrood and the Welsh Senedd following the local elections.
