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Ballotpedia
Ballotpedia
Ellen Morrissey

Joe Biden, Donald Trump lead respective presidential primary polling averages and PredictIt markets

As of Jan. 17, 2024, former President Donald Trump (R) leads in both RealClearPolitics’ (RCP) Republican presidential primary polling average and PredictIt’s Republican presidential primary market.

Trump’s polling average currently stands at 62%, followed by former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley (R) at 12% and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) at 11%. No other candidate has more than a 10% polling average. In PredictIt’s Republican primary market, Trump’s share price is $0.84 and Haley’s share price is $0.10. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10. 

A candidate’s polling average reflects an estimate of the vote share a candidate would receive if the election were held today, while a PredictIt share price roughly corresponds to the market’s estimate of the probability of a candidate winning the election.

President Joe Biden (D) leads both RCP’s Democratic primary polling average and PredictIt’s Democratic primary market. Biden has a 70% polling average. No other Democratic primary candidate is polling at or above 10%. Biden has a $0.79 PredictIt share price. No other candidate has a share price at or above $0.10.

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