Starting with our interview last spring with Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, where he foresaw a white-collar bloodbath, we've been warning of a jobs crisis unfolding in plain sight across America.
- Last week, Mike Allen and I talked privately with 20 different CEOs of a wide range of companies. Every single one of them said they're reducing their hiring ambitions at the dawn of AI.
Why it matters: Don't trust us. Listen to Amodei, who's building AI technology, and top CEOs as they freeze or reduce hiring because of AI.
Amodei, in two interviews with us — one over the phone and the other this month at our AI+ Summit in D.C. — told us AI could wipe out half of U.S. entry-level white-collar jobs and send unemployment soaring.
- Ford CEO Jim Farley said almost the same thing this summer. "Artificial intelligence is going to replace literally half of all white-collar workers in the U.S.," Farley told author Walter Isaacson at the Aspen Ideas Festival. "AI will leave a lot of white-collar people behind."
More telling, two of America's largest private employers are sounding similar warnings:
- Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said in June that Amazon will reduce headcount "as we get efficiency gains from using AI": "It's hard to know exactly where this nets out over time, but in the next few years, we expect that this will reduce our total corporate workforce as we get efficiency gains from using AI extensively across the company."
- In the story topping The Wall Street Journal Saturday morning, Walmart execs said they, too, expect to freeze hiring and change how every job is done. "It's very clear that AI is going to change literally every job," CEO Doug McMillon said. "Maybe there's a job in the world that AI won't change, but I haven't thought of it." (Gift link)
The big picture: Maybe all these CEOs are wrong. But what if they're right? The White House and Congress aren't treating this like a brewing crisis, and seem more focused on beating China to advanced AI than bracing workers for a short-term jolt.
- Top officials argue that the race with China is existential and that new technologies, over time, create more and better jobs. They dismiss the warnings of massive job loss as misguided doomerism.
The bottom line: Both could be true. Most new technologies cause short-term pain but later create new jobs. What's different with this one is that we had advanced warning to prepare the population for it.
🧠 Tell Jim about YOUR experience: jim@axios.com.
- Go deeper: "Wake-up call: Leadership in the AI age" — Jim's advice to companies, based on what we're doing at Axios.
