ATLANTA — Despite the recent struggles and the calls to bench or designate their longest-tenured and highest-paid player for assignment, the Pirates may actually have some semblance of an exit strategy available with Gregory Polanco.
It’s not great, mind you. And it will cause them to eat about 90% of his remaining salary, according to one national supervisor from a rival National League club, but it’s at least a reasonable way for this entire thing to end.
That path forward has been made possible by Polanco’s performance of late. Entering Sunday’s game, Polanco was hitting .257/.300/.400 over his last 10 games (nine starts), with two doubles, a home run, seven RBIs and an OPS of .700.
It’s not ideal. And it's hardly enough to justify his $11.6 million salary in 2021. But it could conceivably give the Pirates a sliver of hope in trade talks.
The key here is for some level of decent performance to continue, which has obviously been a challenge for Polanco throughout his career, especially lately.
“If he can convince people that the adjustments he’s made — the shortening of the swing — are who he is now, it makes it more appealing,” the national supervisor said. “But the Pirates would have to take a discount in some form or fashion.”
That discount could be sizable, too.
With 118 games remaining, there’s roughly $8.3 million left on Polanco’s contract this season, plus a $3 million buyout this offseason — a safety net for the acquiring team to avoid potentially paying Polanco $12.5 million for 2022.
Knowing that, the Pirates and any potential acquiring club will likely need to agree on an established value for this season. The national supervisor put that in the $1.5-$2 million range, meaning the Pirates would essentially have to eat the difference between that number and the $11.3 million left on his contract.
For them to get even a reasonable prospect in return, interested parties might want an additional $1 million, the national supervisor said, meaning the Pirates could potentially wind up paying around 85-90% of Polanco’s remaining salary simply to get something back.
“If you’re the club considering the acquisition, you’re saying he doesn’t have a good health history, which is true,” the national supervisor said. “His performance track, other than maybe the last week, has been spotty or shoddy at the very best. We’ve got guys who in our system who can do that, but we’ll take a flier because there once was pedigree.
“You chew him down to $1 million, you assume $9 of the $10 million or whatever’s left over — and that’s if we were doing it in the next few weeks — we’ll supply you a list of [marginal] prospects in return.”
To defray some of the cost, the Pirates could potentially attach a player to Polanco, thereby sweetening the pot and knocking down the financial burden, but that scenario seems unlikely given general manager Ben Cherington’s desire to acquire and keep as many prospects as possible.
“Ben and company, they’re a lot smarter than that,” the national supervisor said. “The money’s a sunk cost. They should eat as much of the money as they can and get as much of a return back as they can.”
That thinking explains why the Pirates continue to play Polanco in right field more often than not, giving him the opportunity to catch fire and increase what little market he currently has.
And when you’re in the situation the Pirates are — 10 games under .500, nowhere near contention, in the middle of a full-scale rebuild — it’s a luxury they can afford and one that does make long-term sense.
Designating Polanco for assignment would be a decision made out of emotion or frustration, not anything that affects a potential exit strategy with Polanco in any meaningful way.
Plus, they should want to avoid involving another player in the deal because losing a prospect — even one at the lower levels of the minor leagues — essentially renders any Polanco trade meaningless.
“I can’t assume they would attach a player to him,” the national supervisor said. “That does not make sense for where they’re at in their building cycle.”
So the Pirates are left to ride it out and hope that Polanco improves and performs, which, fortunately for them, he’s done to at least some reasonable degree of late.
The other interesting part here involves Polanco’s play in right field. Manager Derek Shelton has talked a few times recently about Polanco’s defense, how he’s taken better routes to balls and looks more comfortable in right.
He’s not wrong, but the numbers still do not paint a terribly favorable picture of Polanco.
Examining right fielders who have logged at least 50 innings in 2021, Polanco has been worth minus-4 Defensive Runs Saved, per FanGraphs, which ranks 58th out of a 59-player group.
Polanco’s mark in Outfield Arm Runs (ARM) of minus-1.7 is last, while only two have fared worse than Polanco (-3.2) in Defensive Runs Above Average (Def).
The only place where Polanco has been halfway decent involves his mark of Range Runs Saved (RngR). That number has been 0, which puts him tied for 25th in that group.
“His legs are back underneath him,” Shelton said. “He looks strong, not only at the plate, but the way he's moving in the outfield. His jumps are outstanding, and he's getting the balls in the gaps. He's done a really nice job. It looks like he's in a really good spot with his legs, and we're seeing that translate with offense and defense.”
That makes sense. It’s exactly what Shelton should be saying, the national supervisor said.
“That’s what the manager is supposed to do,” he said. “If you pull up the video, you can say, ‘Ah, I can see what he’s talking about.’”
At the same time, other teams are keenly aware of what has happened to Polanco in the past: the myriad injuries, the dips in performance, the .153 average and 37% strikeout rate from a season ago.
Because of those things, potential suitors need to see more than a strong week or 10 good days to feel good about giving up any sort of prospect for Polanco, even with the understanding that it wouldn’t cost a ton of money.
“If my club called me, I would say, ‘I have to see him healthy for a month. No knees, no hamstrings, no shoulders, no nothing.’ ” the national supervisor said. “Then and only then do you come to the understanding of, ‘Hey Bob [Nutting], you’re going to have to eat [80-90%], then trust your scouts that we can get something usable in return, a lower-level prospect we can put into the system and tie into what our concept is.
“You get a kid out of the Dominican Summer League or the Gulf Coast League, someone who’s 3-4 years away, you might get a better player. And to their credit, they’ve done a pretty good job with that.”
