The first parliamentary elections held since Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga took office in September are likely to have a major impact on the administration as the candidates supported by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party all lost.
There was a by-election in Hokkaido for a lower house seat, a House of Councillors by-election in Nagano and a special election for the upper house in Hiroshima on Sunday.
Within the ruling coalition, the view is expected to grow stronger that the general election after the dissolution of the House of Representatives will be in autumn, after the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics.
Suga met Sunday with David Atkinson, the president of Konishi Decorative Arts and Crafts Co. and a member of his brain trust, and Hideki Tarumi, vice minister of the Health, Labor and Welfare Ministry, among others, at the prime minister's official residence to discuss economic measures and measures against the novel coronavirus.
Regarding the three elections, Suga is said to have told those around him: "The administration is facing extremely strong headwinds. We have no choice but to do what we have to do, one by one, including measures against the coronavirus."
As for the timing of the dissolution of the lower house, Suga is seeking to do so during his term as LDP president, which ends at the end of September. At a press conference on Friday, he stressed, "I will have to think about it when the opportunity arises during my term as president."
The prime minister sees July as the turning point in the political situation.
The government aims to finish COVID-19 vaccinations for the elderly by the end of July and the Tokyo Olympics will start on July 23.
There is a view that the lower house election could be held at the earliest on the same day as the Tokyo metropolitan assembly election, which is scheduled for July 4. The prime minister is expected to make a decision after assessing the progress of vaccinations and the public mood toward the holding of the Olympics.
However, after losing the election in the conservative Hiroshima constituency of the upper house, a view is spreading that "the options for the timing of the dissolution are narrowing down to autumn," according to a senior LDP official.
A key Cabinet minister commented on the impact of the three elections: "The party will come under increasing pressure, while the opposition parties will gain momentum. People will surely ask whether this administration can really compete in the lower house election."
Nevertheless, the LDP still lacks a strong candidate to succeed Suga.
A former LDP cabinet minister pointed out that the election defeats "will not lead to Suga being ousted. In the end, we will have no choice but to go into the lower house election with Suga in charge."
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