For the first time, the secessionist state of Somaliland has been officially recognised by another state, namely Israel. It's a blow for the President of the Federal Republic of Somalia, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who managed to organise local elections despite growing pressure from the Islamist group al-Shabaab. RFI spoke to Matt Bryden, a strategic advisor at the Sahan Research centre in Nairobi, about the state of play and what's behind Israel's recognition of Somaliland.
Al-Shabaab ("The Youth") rose to prominence in Somalia in the early 2000s and aims to establish a "Greater Somalia", joining ethnic Somalis across East Africa under strict Islamic rule.
It has allegedly become one of al-Qaeda’s strongest and most successful affiliates.
A joint United Nations and African Union peacekeeping force known as the African Union Transitional Mission to Somalia (ATMIS), along with the United States and several East African nations, have been actively trying to combat the movement, but it has proven resilient against numerous counterinsurgency campaigns.
RFI: Why have Shabaab militants been able to regain the ground they lost over the past three years?
Matt Bryden: Three years ago, the offensive against the Shabaab was led by clan militias that wanted to free themselves from Al-Shabaab. They received support from the federal government and from the Americans. But clan militias can only fight on their own clan territory. Once they had liberated their own areas, they could not advance any further. So the offensive was really a series of small, local operations by different clan militias, not a coherent, coordinated campaign.
RFI: And today, have these clan militias allied themselves with the Shabaab against the government?
MB: No. Most of them are still opposed to the Shabaab, especially in the areas where they fought them. But they are not necessarily allied with the government either. That is another major problem for the federal government: it is not just fighting the Shabaab, but also some of the provinces and regions of Somalia, which are themselves fighting Al-Shabaab. In reality, the government in Mogadishu controls at most 15 per cent of Somalia’s territory – and that's a generous estimate.
RFI: Still, these are the first elections without attacks. Isn’t that a success for President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud?
MB: Absolutely. There were voters at some polling stations, that’s true. But Somalia is a clan-based society. Members of clans that support the government turned out to vote, while other clans – those that support the opposition – did not. So the election risks deepening divisions between Somalia’s clans and regions: those that back the government, who are currently a minority, and those clans and regions that oppose it.
US launches air strikes against Islamic State targets in Somalia
RFI: President Hassan Sheikh Mohammed was beaming on Thursday during the elections. But the next day, Friday, he received very bad news. For the first time, the secessionist state of Somaliland was officially recognised by another country – Israel. Did that surprise you?
MB: For Somalia, certainly. It's a very unwelcome surprise. Somaliland now risks receiving not only Israel’s recognition, but that of other countries as well. What Israel has done is clearly not an isolated initiative; it was coordinated with other states in Africa, with some Arab countries, and probably with the United States too.
RFI: You say other countries could follow. Two years ago, Ethiopia nearly recognised Somaliland’s independence, but eventually backed down under pressure from Somalia and Turkey.
MB: Yes, but Ethiopia’s move was not coordinated with other states and amounted to a declaration rather than formal recognition. This time, Israel has officially recognised Somaliland. From what I hear from diplomats in the region, Israel and other countries have been coordinating this decision for months, perhaps more than a year, so that Israel would not be alone. There are likely to be further recognitions in the weeks and months ahead.
With a new president, Somaliland seeks international recognition
RFI: The Israelis suggest that this recognition of Somaliland is in the spirit of the [2020] Abraham Accords, under which Israel normalised relations with countries including the United Arab Emirates and Morocco. Are the Americans perhaps behind this?
MB: Yes, absolutely. The Americans, especially since President Trump’s election, have signalled deep frustration with the situation in Somalia. They have spent billions of dollars on the country’s security, yet the situation is worse than before. As a result, the US has begun working directly with the regions of Jubaland and Puntland to fight Al-Shabaab and also Islamic State, which has been very active in north-eastern Puntland.
Relations with Somaliland are also deepening. The head of Africom, General Anderson, visited a few months ago. So it is fairly clear that the Americans see Somaliland as a potential partner, both to secure maritime routes in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, and to combat extremist movements in the Horn of Africa.
This interview was adapted from the original in French and has been lightly edited for clarity.
