How many mirrors has Wout van Aert smashed in his life? How many black cats have crossed his path? Does the Belgian have a habit of walking under ladders or opening umbrellas indoors?
This would go some way to explaining why the Visma-Lease a Bike rider seems to acquire more bad luck than his fellow stars of cycling, but it feels unlikely. Misfortune just seems to trail the 31-year-old.
Already this year, Van Aert fractured his ankle in a cyclo-cross crash, before illness delayed his season start at Omloop Nieuwsblad. Then, when he eventually pinned a number on at Le Samyn, he punctured out of the race with less than 10km to go. He might have won that thrilling edition of Paris-Roubaix, but the adversity has returned, with an elbow injury taking him out of the Tour de France. It's one stroke of bad luck after another.
Bad luck seems in endless supply for Van Aert. Despite being one of the favourites every Classics season, the Belgian has only ever won Paris-Roubaix once, and never triumphed at his home race, the Tour of Flanders.
In 2022, he tested positive for Covid days before Flanders, depriving him of an opportunity at Belgium's biggest race; Mathieu van der Poel went on to win. A year later, Van Aert finished third at Roubaix after puncturing on the Carrefour de l'Arbre. Van der Poel won. In 2024, Van Aert looked in great form, before crashing at Dwars door Vlaanderen and ending his tilt at the Classics early. Last year, he raced them all, but was coming back from the serious knee injury he suffered at the Vuelta a España the previous summer. Now, he has had injury, illness and a puncture all in a few months.
The misfortune is amplified by the fortune his rivals appear to find. Alpecin-Premier Tech's Van der Poel and Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) seem to crash less, which of course is partly down to excellent bike handling, but also down to little flashes of luck. At Omloop ear, Van der Poel somehow managed to avoid the fallen Rick Pluimers (Tudor Pro Cycling) on the Molenberg, while Pogačar bounced back up from his crash at Strade Bianche last year. It could have been so different. They also seem to get ill less often, which could of course be down to stronger immune systems, but must also just be luck.
It is easy to imagine an alternate history, one where Van Aert has escaped illness, injury and incident, and think of more glory for the Belgian. Five years ago, it seemed like Van Aert and Van der Poel would be going toe-to-toe, pedal-to-pedal, in every cobbled Classic. For various reasons, this hasn't happened.
The truth is, because of the adversity that he has been forced to fight through, more than potentially any other 'big name' in cycling, Van Aert's plight makes him distinctly likeable – he's cycling's Donald Duck: victim of chronic misfortune, and even more beloved for it.
While the sport may seem easy for Pogačar and Van der Poel, there's more of a slog, a struggle for Van Aert. His stage win at the Giro d'Italia seemed like the result of an immense amount of hard work, rather than a solo attack, gliding away, like others. The hard times mean that the good times, like his victory on the final stage of the Tour de France last summer, seem all the better. This is why everyone loved his Paris-Roubaix win so much, it was the feast after the famine.
Somehow, Van Aert remains stoic and successful. He's still a 10-time Tour stage winner, one of the best riders of his generation, and a super-domestique beyond everyone else, to boot – let us not forget his help for Jonas Vingegaard at the Tour or Simon Yates at the Giro. Misfortune is part of his story, and cycling fans ultimately wouldn't want it any other way. That said, I hope he has used up all his bad luck for the rest of his career, already. No more smashing mirrors, Wout.
