ANAS Sarwar must follow the lead of Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan and put clear water between himself and Keir Starmer if he is to convince voters Scottish Labour are a credible electoral choice, a former Labour MSP and political experts have said.
But Neil Findlay, who quit the party in March after 35 years, and academics have warned it may be too late for Sarwar to make a recovery 12 months out from the Holyrood election, with polls suggesting Labour are slipping behind Reform UK as well as the SNP.
Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan made a speech last week in which she set out a “red Welsh way” and vowed to “call out” Labour when they “get it wrong for Wales”.
She called on the UK Government to rethink its policies on cuts to the Winter Fuel Payment and disability benefits and for a shake-up to how her Government is funded, saying the Barnett formula "does not serve Wales well”.
The bold statement shone a somewhat awkward spotlight on Sarwar who has defended UK Labour cuts to disability benefits and, while he has said he disagrees with the winter fuel cut, he subsequently had his MSPs vote against a motion calling for a reversal of the policy.
The lack of rebuttal to Keir Starmer has sent Labour backwards in the Scottish polls, with the most recent Survation survey suggesting that Sarwar’s party will only pick up around 18 seats at Holyrood – four fewer than they have now.
Findlay said Sarwar should not be surprised at such a bleak outlook when he has allied himself to such “dreadful political decisions” made at Westminster.
He said drawing clear lines between Scottish Labour and Starmer would boost the party but is doubtful of them making a sufficient recovery before the Holyrood election.
He told the Sunday National: “Eluned Morgan’s speech follows in a long tradition in Wales, since devolution, where successive first ministers have sought to put clear red water between themselves and what’s happening at UK level.
“That’s been a successful strategy and Morgan is realising there is nothing to be gained from shackling yourselves to Starmer’s failing project.”
Asked if Sarwar would benefit from setting Scottish Labour apart from UK Labour, he added: “Absolutely. I think they would have been much more successful had they ploughed their own furrow rather than tied themselves to some of the worst aspects of UK Labour policy.
“There’s big opportunity for Scottish Labour to have different policies, have a different position to the UK party on devolution but they’ve not done that. I don’t think they’ve learned any lessons from the past.
“A more independent line from the UK party would be to their advantage but the situation is so far down the line I’m not sure they are capable of much recovery prior to the Scottish election.
Dr Paul Anderson, an expert in territorial politics at Liverpool John Moores University, said there is now a pressing need for Sarwar to take a “place first” rather than “party first” approach if he wants any hope of success in 2026.
“We’ve seen Scottish Labour leaders take different decisions from UK Labour [over time] but I think there is a need for this to be much stronger and clearly communicated by Sarwar,” said Anderson, who released his book Territorial Politics In Catalonia And Scotland: Nations In Flux last year.
“I think what we’re seeing from the Welsh First Minister that perhaps we need to see a bit more from Sarwar, if he’s hoping to win next year or not be pushed into third place by Reform, is a more place first rather than party first approach.
“I also think there is a pressing need for Sarwar to think about what Scottish Labour stand for because of the rise of Reform.
“I think around one in five Labour supporters went to Reform [at the English local elections], and that’s a big deal for Scottish Labour. To avoid haemorrhaging support to Reform, they need to lay out what makes Scottish Labour a credible electoral choice and, at the moment, I think they will struggle to do that.”
While Sarwar did tell the BBC earlier this month that UK ministers need to go “further and faster improving people’s lives” and has said the Winter Fuel Payment cut was the “wrong decision”, Anderson said he had not seen Sarwar rebut Starmer enough to convince voters in Scotland that backing him is the right way forward.
Professor Rob Johns, a founding investigator on the Scottish Election Study series, also said any recovery for Scottish Labour in a year’s time at Holyrood hinges on Sarwar ensuring voters are not just using their ballot to send a message to the Prime Minister.
“It is in Anas Sarwar's electoral interests to follow Eluned Morgan's lead and to open up some clear red water between his own and Keir Starmer's agenda,” he said.
“Labour's downturn in the Holyrood polling has been driven largely by the unpopularity of the party at Westminster. Any recovery by May 2026 hinges on voters refocusing on the Labour-SNP battle rather than seeing the Holyrood election as an opportunity to send a message to Starmer and the government in London.”
