What did you go and do that for, Rory? Last year, you won the Masters on your 17th attempt and removed a big monkey off your back. Finally, you ended your Major drought. Finally, you completed the career Grand Slam.
And now, following an opening round of 67 (five under), you've put yourself right back in the firing line.
It's what the great champions do. McIlroy shares the lead with Sam Burns. He already has the chasing pack, including the World No. 1. Scottie Scheffler, off the bridle.
Should he blow it from here, imagine the reaction. I mean, this is Rory's to lose now, right?
Although McIlroy wasn't at his best on Thursday, playing a fair bit of the opening nine holes from in amongst the trees, the Northern Irishman was able to do what all the greats have done in the past: he turned what could have been a very average score into a very good one.
When the World No. 2 spends so much time kicking needles around and eyeing up gaps in the trees but still manages to shoot their second-best-ever opening round in the Masters in 18 years, that's surely an ominous sign for the chasing pack.
McIlroy, who is widely regarded as one of the most reliable drivers in the game, hit just five of 14 fairways on Thursday and was just the second player in the last 10 years to shoot 67 or better in a Masters round despite hitting five or fewer.
He's sure to tighten up off the tee, so from here it should be plain sailing: just a couple more rounds in the sixties and maybe a level par, and Green Jacket number two will be secured. You can see him now giving his winner's speech: "Green Jackets are like buses," etc...
But, come on, let's just wait a moment and think about this properly. First, we must look at some important stats.
This is the seventh Major Championship, and second Masters, that McIlroy has held at least a share of the first-round lead - and he's only converted two of those into wins.
2010 Open, St Andrews |
T3 |
2011, Masters |
T15 |
2011, US Open, Congressional |
Won |
2014, Open, Royal Liverpool |
Won |
2022, PGA Championship, Southern Hills |
8th |
2024, US Open, Pinehurst |
Runner-up |
2026, Masters |
? |
It's not a terrible record by any means, but his overall conversation rate when holding the 18-hole lead/share on the PGA Tour is very low.
This is the 25th 18-hole lead/co-lead McIlroy has had in an individual strokeplay event on the PGA Tour. As it stands, he's down at 3/24 (12.5%).
As for the Masters, we all know what happened in 2011. Things went badly wrong after that scintillating 65 on the opening day.
We needn't analyze that final-round nightmare. McIlroy is a very different animal from the raw 21-year-old who wilted on the back nine 15 years ago.
However, his 12.5% conversation rate on the PGA Tour does suggest that McIlroy doesn't always capitalize after making a fast start, which is something for the chasers to take away.
If you have backed McIlroy to win his sixth Major Championship at Augusta this week and become just the fourth player to successfully defend their title, you probably don't want to hit the 'cash out' option just yet, because with another good score, he could quickly end a lot of chances with the field getting cut to just 50 players and ties after Friday.
And that's the position of strength he finds himself in, with several pre-tournament favorites already staring at an early exit, which includes LIV players Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau, already a distant 11 and nine shots off the pace, respectively.
'Rory May Never Lose This Thing Again'
Perhaps McIlroy's biggest obstacle is the weather, because Augusta looks set to get even faster and firmer as the week progresses, which could act as a bit of a leveller.
On the other hand, maybe that'll play into the former World No.1's hands.
"I think when the greens get that firm, you really have to think about where the best miss is, and distance control is very important," he reflected after his round.
"As you guys know, I've said for the last few years, I've started to really relish that type of golf. I really want to excel at that type of golf."
McIlroy added: "There's still opportunities to shoot really, really good scores. Look at Justin Rose last year on the final day. But it takes a very, very good, solid round of golf to do that."
Clearly, McIlroy is not getting too far ahead of himself, but he did also say this: "I think winning a Masters makes it easier to win your second one. I do."
Plenty of people like his chances, especially given his start, including 1992 champion Fred Couples.
Couples said: "Rory may never lose this thing again after last year. I said that on about the 12th hole to my caddie. Then he birdied I think a couple coming in. You know, he's really good. He hits it so solid."
Rory's to lose? Maybe we're not quite at that point yet, especially with two-time winner Scheffler loitering only three shots back - but he is now the clear favorite.
