ANALYSIS — Typically, the political law of gravity works one way: from the top down. A strong nominee at the top of the ticket can boost down-ballot candidates, or a weak nominee at the top can make it miserable for the rest of the party slate.
But next week’s elections in Virginia are testing whether a race down the ballot could drag down the top of the ticket. If it does, it might be the first diagnosed case of reverse coattails.
For months, Democratic former Rep. Abigail Spanberger has had the advantage over Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in the race to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin. Spanberger has at least a couple of advantages: She’s been the better fundraiser, Virginia is a Democratic-leaning state and commonwealth history favors the party that does not occupy the White House. Inside Elections rates the Virginia gubernatorial race Lean Democratic.
But the race was rocked by the revelations of 2022 texts from Democratic attorney general nominee Jay Jones, in which he mused about the murder of the Virginia House speaker and his young children. Jones, a former state delegate, is challenging Republican incumbent Jason Miyares.
While Spanberger and other high-profile Virginia Democrats have condemned the texts, they have resisted calling for Jones to drop out of the race. Consequently, Republicans have spent heavily to tie the Democratic ticket to the texting scandal, hoping not only to knock off Jones, but to drag Spanberger down with him. Recent history, though, shows that such a strategy has rarely worked.
Have we seen this movie before?
There have been radioactive, even toxic, candidates in the past, but there’s just not a clear example of a down-ballot candidate dragging down the top of the ticket.
Most recently, in North Carolina, Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson had a slew of bad headlines, including an alleged connection to a pornographic website’s message board, and ended up losing the gubernatorial race to Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein by 15 points. But that didn’t prevent Donald Trump from winning the Tar Heel State by 3 points at the top of the ballot.
In 2022, GOP Senate nominee Herschel Walker seemed to average a negative story per week in Georgia, while in Pennsylvania, Republicans point to Doug Mastriano’s mediocre campaign for governor as the reason why they failed to gain House seats there. But statewide offices top the Keystone State ballot, so that was a more traditional case of a flawed candidate at the top dragging down the rest of the ticket. But in Georgia, where the unsuccessful Walker topped the ballot, the other eight Republican statewide nominees prevailed anyway.
In 2012, Republican Rep. Todd Akin’s infamous “legitimate rape” comment led to his loss in Missouri’s Senate race to Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill. But GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney still won the Show Me State by almost 10 points.
I’d argue that Akin’s problems crossed state lines even if they didn’t hurt Romney. If Akin hadn’t made his comment in August, then I don’t think Indiana Republican Richard Mourdock gets asked a related question about rape and abortion during his October Senate debate. Even though I’d also argue that, unlike Akin, Mourdock was making a theological argument rather than a biological one, it contributed to him losing to Democrat Joe Donnelly that November.
Kansas Republican Kris Kobach always seems to be a lightning rod, but it didn’t prevent him from winning statewide in 2010, when GOP Sen. Sam Brownback was elected governor, or in his most recent race, for state attorney general in 2022. Republican Derek Schmidt lost the gubernatorial race to Democrat Laura Kelly that year, but I’m not sure anyone blames Kobach for that.
Even further back, in 2006, GOP Rep. Mark Foley’s suggestive texts to former congressional pages moved far beyond Florida to make national news. But a comparison to Jones doesn’t fit neatly.
Republicans were already headed for a rough 2006 midterm election, with an electorate angry over President George W. Bush’s war in Iraq, when the Foley scandal broke. Keeping in mind that Foley resigned a few days after the news broke and didn’t seek reelection, Florida Republicans won races for governor, state attorney general and agriculture commissioner. Democrats won the Senate race, but it was with incumbent Bill Nelson.
First time for everything?
In most of the above examples, the sins of the offending candidate were often so over the top that it was hard to pin them on ballot mates of the same party. The situations demonstrated voters’ ability to split their tickets.
Just declaring that Jones could be a drag in Virginia is simplistic. Exactly how might he hurt Spanberger? In theory, the scandal could depress turnout, but that seems unlikely. Virginia Democrats seem motivated to voice their opposition to Trump and Republicans in Congress, particularly voters affected by government layoffs or the government shutdown.
At a minimum, Jones’ texts have changed the conversation and put Spanberger on the defensive. It could be similar to the Mississippi lieutenant governor’s race in 2003, when Democratic state Sen. Barbara Blackmon asked Republican incumbent Amy Tuck to sign an affidavit saying that she’d never had an abortion. The issue engrossed Magnolia State politics in the final weeks of the campaign to the point that GOP gubernatorial nominee Haley Barbour had to respond in his own ads. But Barbour went on to unseat Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove by 7 points as Tuck won by 24 points.
This year, Jones’ texts prompted Earle-Sears to ask Spanberger about it in a debate, and the Democrat’s awkward lack of a response onstage later became a focus of GOP attack ads. Parties typically put their money behind their best messages, particularly with just a couple of weeks to go.
But less than a week out from Election Day, Virginia voters appear to be making a distinction between Jones and Spanberger. An Oct. 19-21 Suffolk University poll showed Spanberger leading Earle-Sears by 9 points, with Mirayes ahead of Jones by 4 points. An Oct. 17-20 survey by State Navigate showed Spanberger with a 13-point advantage, while Jones led by 5 points. And an Oct. 16-20 Washington Post/Schar School poll showed Spanberger ahead by 12 points, with Miyares and Jones tied.
Spanberger’s polling edge hasn’t fundamentally changed in months (before and after the texting scandal broke), while Jones has lost ground. Spanberger’s overall response to Jones’ texts might have cost her some crossover Republican support and might have mattered in a very close contest, but that’s not the situation with days to go.
In fact, instead of dragging Spanberger down, Virginia could see a record level of ticket-splitting this year if the political dynamics don’t change in these final days of the campaign. The partisan difference between the contests for governor and attorney general could exceed the 11-point gap seen in the 2011 races for lieutenant governor and attorney general, according to Virginia-based analyst Chaz Nuttycombe of State Navigate.
One could argue that the Miyares campaign is effectively asking voters to split their tickets, with an ad highlighting Spanberger calling Jones’ texts “abhorrent.” That appears to acknowledge that the race for governor is Spanberger’s to lose.
So despite the Jones controversy, it looks like voters, once again, will compartmentalize problematic candidates from the rest of the ticket.
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