Iraq is turning to Turkey as an alternative route for its oil exports, as the war in the Middle East continues. The Iraqi move comes as Ankara steps up efforts to capitalise on the shifting diplomatic, economic and security landscape in the region.
In a race to find routes that circumvent the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq has resumed pumping oil through a previously disused pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. The Iraqi Minister of Oil, Hayyan Abdul-Ghani al-Sawad, claims that up to a million barrels of oil could be exported via Turkey.
The Iran war is also boosting Baghdad's efforts to realise the Iraqi Development Road, a multi-billion euro project to turn Iraq into a transit hub between Asia and Europe via Turkey, says Norman Ricklefs of the geopolitical consultancy, the NAMEA Group.
"[The Iran war] is an impetus for [the Iraqi Development Road], to be accelerated. It would be a great project to link Turkey and Iraq closer to together.”
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Turkish influence growing
Ricklefs argues that Turkey’s geographic importance to supply chains between Europe and international markets is growing.
"Turkey is a corridor state – it's already doing this with Caspian Gas and Russian Gas. Turkey is a brilliant strategic location for benefitting from disruption in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea."
However, Ricklefs cautions that Iraq’s "instability", exacerbated by the war against Iran, remains an obstacle to the realisation of.the Development Road project. While cost remains a factor, shipping via the Strait of Hormuz is the cheapest distribution option.
The aftermath of the Iran war is also being predicted to boost Ankara’s efforts to increase its influence across the energy-rich Gulf states.
In 2014, Turkey opened a military base in Qatar which has been expanded from land forces to air and naval capabilities, with a reported presence of 5,000 personnel. Turkey has also, in recent years, rapidly expanded and modernised its navy.
“However the Iran war ends, it will take a while for Iran to ameliorate relations,” predicts Turkish international relations expert Soli Ozel.
“So in that sense, the relations between the Gulf states – or certainly Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey – I'm sure will continue to be strong, because Turkey will be a countervailing power to Iran, especially if the Iran regime survives this. The regime will have been fortified.”
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The Israeli fissure
Turkey is already stepping up its diplomatic efforts with Saudi Arabia and Egypt in seeking to end the fighting. This deepening cooperation is enhanced by shared concerns over Israel, exacerbated by the Iran war.
“Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan want stability in the region,” says Asli Aydintasbas, head of the Turkey Project at the Washington-based Brookings Institution. “They are not fully on board with the Israeli plan of keeping Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iran destabilised."
“As such, they have not been able to deal with Israel's policies, but together they can. They are providing an alternative axis. And I think that will be very important for [the] US administration that similarly seeks stability, so they can do less in the Middle East and more in Asia.”
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However, Aydintasbas acknowledges that such cooperation threatens to deepen another fissure in the Middle East.
In February, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu warned that Israel is facing an emerging threat of “a radical Sunni axis”.
“I think when Netanyahu said that, he was trying to create a bogeyman and, really, he was talking about Turkey. The strategic competitor to Israel in the region is now Turkey,” said Ricklefs.
The Iran war is exacerbating existing tensions between Israel and Turkey, with both sides ramping up their rhetoric against each other.
Any enhancement of Turkish influence in the region in the aftermath of the Iranian conflict would likely be perceived as a threat by Israel, only intensifying their growing rivalry.
