Donald Trump has a problem – his affections appear to have been divided – because of Iran.
Vladimir Putin, who he sees as a model leader, and Benjamin Netanyahu, who has a tough-guy vibe the US President finds irresistible, are on opposite sides over Tehran’s march towards nuclear weapons.
The UN’s International Atomic Energy Authority has just announced that Iran is in breach of its non-proliferation obligations.
Iran says it has been warned by a “friendly country” that Israel may attack its nuclear facilities. Israel fears Tehran is building a bomb and its leaders have frequently pledged to wipe the Jewish state off the face of the earth.
The Trump administration has seen this coming. The defence department has rerouted 20,000 air defence missiles destined for Ukraine to US forces in the Middle East. The US is also drawing down on embassy staff, warning Americans to get out of Iraq, and generally bracing for what may be retaliation following a unilateral Israeli attack on Iran.
Such an attack would need to be supported by the US – not least in terms of air refuelling and logistical support. It would probably involve the use of US bombs and certainly US-manufactured aircraft.
Iran has mobilised its armed forces for drills focused on “enemy movements”. Gulf nations like Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates will be jittery – they’ve signed the Abraham Accords normalising relations with Israel and, along with Qatar, they have large US naval or air force bases on their territory.
Trump has long derided the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action agreed with Iran which dialled back its nuclear ambitions, and has frequently warned Iran not to try to develop a nuclear weapon.
He would be happy to see Israel take the initiative – after all, he has defended Netanyahu’s actions in Gaza, even putting sanctions on the International Criminal Court because it “abused its power by issuing baseless arrest warrants targeting Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former minister of defence Yoav Gallant”.
But Russia is deeply involved in Iran’s nuclear programme. Moscow has a longstanding programme to develop Iran's civilian nuclear power industry and has already built the Bushehr I plant, is building the Bushehr II reactor and is planning more at Sirik and Karun.
Iran also supplies drones, has built drone factories in Russia, helps with missile technology and is bound into Moscow’s military-industrial complex at deep levels that have grown deeper with the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Iran is a key ally in Russia’s war in Europe.
Trump has maintained staunchly pro-Russian positions on Ukraine in demanding that any future peace deal leaves Russia in control of about a fifth of Ukraine, and out of Nato. Trump has taken Russia’s side at the UN refusing to condemn Moscow’s invasion. He has stopped allocating military aid to Kyiv.
A large-scale Israeli attack on Iran aimed at its nuclear programme would also have to focus on its wider military capabilities. Those are capabilities that Russia draws on.
Trump has little real influence over Netanyahu and will not try – publicly anyway – to hold him back for fear of rejection. The Israeli Prime Minister has repeatedly shown that he’s largely immune to pressure from the White House.
But as Trump’s agenda so far this year has been to undermine longstanding alliances and friendships with the US in favour of Israel and Russia, the threat of conflict between Israel and Iran doesn’t tear at his loyalties.
Israel could remove a growing nuclear threat from Iran’s regime, which has threatened annihilation.
Russia is already benefiting from Ukraine’s loss of 20,000 missiles. And if Iran counterattacks with assaults on US targets in the Middle East, the US president is confident his forces could defend themselves. But pressure to further downgrade US involvement in the region will grow in Washington – and that suits Putin just fine.
None of this would be good for the United States. But at home and abroad, that doesn’t look like a priority for Trump, who consistently favours men like Putin and Netanyahu and who both may gain from chaos in the Middle East.
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