With the penultimate week of IPL 2022 coming to an end there are now only 9 matches left to play in the league stage, but that too translates into 512 possible combinations of results.
TOI looks at each of these possibilities to calculate the chances of individual teams making it to the playoffs. Although MI and CSK can no longer qualify for the playoff stage, as on Sunday morning, May 15, three of the four top spots are still open. So far GT is the only team that has qualified for the playoffs while after Saturday's win KKR is clinging on to its chances of qualifying for the next level. Here is what the possibilities look like:
* Despite having two more matches left to play, MI is out of the reckoning for a playoff spot
* CSK too is in the same boat. Two more matches but no chance of qualifying for the playoffs.
* KKR has doubled its chances of making it to the top four as its probability for the playoffs has improved from 9.4% on Friday to 18.8% after Saturday's win vs SRH. At best though they can finish third on the points table, but they will share that spot with four to six teams. At worst they will finish eighth after the league stage on the points table
* DC's chances of making it to the top four slots have slightly improved to 50%, but at best they can hope for a joint second spot which they will share with three to four teams
* PBKS is matching DC step for step and their chances of a top-four finish have also improved to 50%. Like DC PBKS too can no longer top the table, as their best chance now is joint second position shared with three to four other contenders
* SRH's chances of finishing in the top four spots have reduced to 12.5% after their loss vs KKR on Saturday. Among all teams, they now have the bleakest possibility of qualifying
* RCB's chances of making it to one of the top four slots have slightly improved to 81.3%. They also can no longer top the points table. At best they can be second - a spot that they will share with three to four teams
* RR has a 93.8% chance of finishing among the top four in terms of points. Their best chance is a joint first spot that they may share with two to three teams. At worst they can fall as low as the fifth spot
* LSG's nerve-racking week continues. It is their first IPL season and they could be certain to get to the top three slots on points. They can be joint first with three teams, joint second with up to four teams and joint third with up to three teams
* GT, also in its first IPL season, remains the only team that has an ensured qualification and can do no worse than a three-way tie for the top spot in which it ends up third on net run rate
* In short, bet on GT, LSG, RR and RCB making it to the playoffs with PBKS and DC having a relatively small chance of displacing RR or RCB in the playoffs race. KKR and SRH are still in the fray, but with a lower mathematical probability.
How we calculate these probabilities:
We looked at all 512 possible combinations of results with 9 matches remaining. We assumed that for any given match the chances of either side winning are even. We then looked at how many of the combinations put each team in one of the top four slots by points. That gives us our probability number. To take a specific example, of the 512 possible result combinations, RR finishes first to fourth on points in 480 combinations. That translates to a 93.8% chance. We do not take net run rates or "no results" into consideration because predicting those in advance is impossible.
Come back for our updated predictions Monday (May 16) morning, which will take into account the results of Sunday's matches.
