Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst, the motorcycle-riding Republican who came to Congress more than a decade ago vowing to “make ’em squeal,” won’t run for reelection next year, giving Democrats an opening in a red-trending state.
“As our family ages and grows, it’s my time for me to give back to them. After a tremendous amount of prayer and reflection, I will not be seeking reelection in 2026,” Ernst said in a video posted Tuesday on her social media accounts. Her decision was first reported Friday by CBS News.
Hours after the announcement, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, long seen as a potential successor to Ernst, jumped into the Senate race.
“I’m all in,’’ Hinson posted on social media. “As Iowa’s next Senator, I will stop at nothing to Make America Great!”
Ernst is the fourth Republican senator to decide against seeking reelection this cycle. In late June, North Carolina’s Thom Tillis declared that he would not seek a third term. Kentucky’s Mitch McConnell is leaving the chamber next year, while Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville is running for governor.
Ernst’s retirement provides an opportunity for Senate Democrats in an election cycle that was initially seen as highly favorable for Republicans. Democrats need to flip a net of four seats to win the majority next year.
Still, Iowa remains challenging terrain for Democrats. While Barack Obama carried the state in 2008 and 2012, Trump has since won it three straight times, including by 14 points last fall. State auditor and gubernatorial hopeful Rob Sand is now Democrats’ sole statewide officeholder, and no Iowa Democrat has won election to Congress since former Rep. Cindy Axne in 2020. A recent spate of upsets in legislative special elections, however, has given Iowa Democrats optimism about their 2026 chances.
“Donald Trump and Senate Republicans’ devastating agenda has put their majority in jeopardy,” Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chair Kirsten Gillibrand said in a joint statement Tuesday. “Democrats are in a strong position to win seats and continue fighting for working families.”
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the Senate race in Iowa as Likely Republican.
Even before Ernst’s announcement, several Democrats had launched Senate campaigns, including state Rep. Josh Turek, state Sen. Zach Wahls, Des Moines School Board Chairwoman Jackie Norris, and Marine and Army veteran Nathan Sage.
On the GOP side, Ernst had drawn primary challenges from former state Sen. Jim Carlin and Navy veteran Joshua Smith.
But Hinson, a former broadcast journalist who served in the Iowa House, starts as the front-runner for the Republican nomination. She represents what’s become a reliably red district in the northeastern corner of the state.
South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who leads the National Republican Senatorial Committee, expressed confidence that the GOP would hold Ernst’s seat “to continue … championing President Trump’s agenda in 2026.”
A former state senator who served more than two decades in the Army Reserve and the Iowa National Guard, Ernst was first elected to the Senate in 2014. With her win over Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley, she became the first woman elected to Congress from Iowa.
Six years later, she won a competitive reelection fight over Democrat Theresa Greenfield, prevailing by 7 points as the former swing state was transforming into a decidedly red one.
“This was no easy decision,” Ernst said in her video message. “I love my state and country. It’s the very reason why I decided to wear our nation’s uniform and run for elected office in the first place. I never imagined this farm girl would have the opportunity to serve as a lieutenant colonel and then a United States senator, only in America, and by the grace of God, 11 years ago.”
A fiscal and social conservative, Ernst has been a reliable Trump supporter. But shortly after Trump won a second term, she came under criticism from some of his allies after she expressed uncertainty about Pete Hegseth, Trump’s pick to lead the Defense Department, who faced allegations of sexual assault. Hegseth denied the charges, and Ernst, a sexual assault survivor, ultimately voted in favor of his confirmation.
Ernst then made headlines during a May town hall when she responded to a constituent’s concerns that potential Medicaid cuts would lead to people dying by saying, “Well, we’re all going to die.”
The comment drew quick condemnation. Ernst later posted a video that appeared to be recorded in a cemetery and made light of the matter.
In her retirement announcement, Ernst didn’t specify what she plans to do when she leaves the Senate in January 2027.
“While this chapter of elected service will soon close, I will always find ways to best serve my community, state and these great United States of America,” she said.
Iowa’s senior senator, Republican Charles E. Grassley, on Tuesday said he looked forward to continuing to work with Ernst for the remainder of her term.
“She broke barriers at every turn and accomplished what she set out to do: ‘MAKE ’EM SQUEAL,’’’ he said in a statement.
The post Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst announces she won’t seek reelection in 2026 appeared first on Roll Call.
