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The Guardian - US
The Guardian - US
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Joan E Greve in Des Moines

Chaos as Democratic party blames Iowa caucus delays on 'inconsistencies' – as it happened

Caucuses summary

That’s it from me after a very anti-climatic night in Des Moines. The Democratic presidential candidates and the media circus accompanying them are leaving Iowa with no sense of who won the first voting state in the nominating contest.

Here’s where things stand:

  • The Iowa Democratic party has not yet released any data from tonight’s caucuses, blaming the delay on “inconsistencies” and promising to release results later Tuesday.
  • The debacle intensified complaints that Iowa should not vote first, considering tonight’s issues and the state’s mostly white demographics.
  • Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg delivered addresses to supporters that sounded oddly like victory speeches, as Joe Biden’s camp appeared to downplay expectations.
  • All of the top candidates pledged to continue their fight in the next voting state of New Hampshire, but it’s unclear whether they will change their tune once results are finally known.

You can read Lauren Gambino’s wrap of the night here.

Thanks for following along with our coverage of this year’s utterly bizarre Iowa caucuses. We have started up a new blog to cover Tuesday’s developments. Tune in here.

Updated

One reporter described Iowa Democratic party chairman Troy Price’s voice on the press call as “deflated”, which is understandable considering the organization saw its worst nightmare unfold before its eyes tonight.

Updated

IDP says results will be released 'later today'

In a one-minute press call that consisted entirely of Iowa Democratic party chairman Troy Price reading a prepared statement, the IDP said caucus results would be released “later today” (as in Tuesday because it is now 1am CT).

Price reiterated that the delay was not the result of a “hack or intrusion” and that the IDP was verifying results with a “paper trail” and “back-up system”.

Then, without taking any questions from reporters, Price abruptly ended the call.

Updated

The chief strategist for Elizabeth Warren criticized the campaigns releasing internal numbers, as Pete Buttigeg and Joe Biden have, accusing the candidates of contributing to the “chaos and misinformation” surrounding the results.

Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s campiagn manager has released this statement, which does not seem to voice as much confidence as Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg espoused when they addressed their supporters tonight.

Greg Schultz said in the statement that the Biden campaign believed the former vice president would “emerge with the delegates we need” to capture the nomination and that the results would show a “tight race with bunched up candidates.”

The Iowa Democratic Party is reportedly holding a second late-night call with the presidential campaigns about the delay in reporting caucus results.

Multiple political reporters pointed out the discrepancies between Pete Buttigieg’s partial internal numbers and those from Bernie Sanders, underscoring the vital need for actual results from the Iowa Democratic Party.

David Yepsen, the host of “Iowa Press” on Iowa Public Television, offered a short obituary to the the state’s first-in-the-nation caucuses after tonight’s results debacle.

Bernie Sanders’ campaign has released internal numbers that (unsurprisingly) show the Vermont senator winning the final alignment and the state delegate equivalent.

The blog cannot emphasize this point enough: there is no way of knowing whether these numbers are accurate because we have no results to compare them to.

Did Sanders win the Iowa caucuses? He might have, but Pete Buttigieg might have as well. It’s anyone’s guess how exactly the top three shook out tonight.

The Democratic presidential candidates are officially leaving Iowa with no sense of how they performed in the crucial first voting state.

Bernie Sanders’ campaign said it would soon release internal figures from tonight’s caucuses, as Pete Buttigieg’s team did the same.

According to the Buttigieg campaign, the former Indiana mayor was viable in 83% of the precincts from which they received reports.

But again, these are internal numbers and should be taken with a grain of salt because we have no official results to compare them to.

Even some Democratic officials in Iowa are acknowledging tonight’s debacle has supercharged conversations about taking away the state’s first-in-the-nation status.

The Iowa Democratic Party has reportedly told presidential candidates not to expect results until tomorrow at the earliest.

“They literally have no verified results,” a senior campaign adviser told CNN. “We won’t know anything until some time Tuesday — at least.”

For reference, in 2016, almost all of the Democratic results were available within hours, but it took a day to declare Hillary Clinton the winner because she was locked in such a close race with Bernie Sanders.

Former senator Chris Dodd, a top surrogate for Joe Biden, appeared to cast doubt on the Iowa results as the state’s Democratic Party offers no timeline on when they might be able to report final numbers.

Julián Castro, the former Democratic president who endorsed Elizabeth Warren after dropping out of the race, called the delay in reporting of the results a “total mess.”

Interestingly, Castro, who has previously said Iowa and New Hampshire should not vote first because the mostly white states are not representative of the Democratic Party, added that the issues were a reflection of a “broken system.”

The campaign manager of Amy Klobuchar said the team’s internal numbers indicate she is running “even or ahead” of Joe Biden, but given that there is no way to verify that, take it with a grain of salt.

Andrew Yang put a lot of effort into winning over voters in rural northeastern Iowa. He visited Cresco, the small city of just 3,800 and capital of Howard County, three times this year including Sunday on a final push. He also held a rally in a local theatre which drew a good turnout. Volunteers came from neighbouring Minnesota to get out the vote. But they were disappointed.

Although Yang picked up delegates in some precincts in Howard County, frequently he failed to make it past the first round of voting as caucus goers were not convinced that his focus on a universal basic income of $1,000 a month to every American is a burning priority. Almost all the support he got was young.

An exception in voting at the high school in Cresco was 73 year-old Connie Ashley who was caucusing for the very first time, prompted by her deep dislike of Donald Trump.

“I like Yang. He’s younger. The older they are the less qualified they are to be president because their brains are turning to mush,” said Ashley who runs a bed and breakfast. She was disappointed when Yang didn’t win enough votes to continue to the second round.

“I think people in Howard County like the stability of seniors and they’re afraid of young people who promote change,” she said. After Yang failed to make the cut, most of his votes in the precinct went to Bernie Sanders.

But Ashley went a different way, not surprisingly complaining that Sanders was too old. She considered Pete Buttigieg, a mere 38, but settled on Elizabeth Warren. “I like Pete but I went for Warren. It was a tough thing but I think she has the better policies,” she said.

Buttigieg says he is going on to New Hampshire 'victorious'

Pete Buttigieg is addressing his supporters in Des Moines, even though the results of the caucuses are still unknown. Buttigieg’s campaign said there were 2,000 supporters at his caucus night watch party.

“Tonight, an improbable hope became an undeniable reality,” Buttigieg, the first openly gay candidate to launch a major presidential bid, told the crowd. “By all indications, we are going on to New Hampshire victorious.”

There are some early indications that Buttigieg did well as voters realigned in their caucuses, but of course, the results are still very unclear.

But that didn’t stop Buttigieg from delivering an address that sounded eerily like a victory speech. “Tonight, Iowa chose a new path,” the former Indiana mayor said, promising to take his message on “every corner of America”.

“Make no mistake,” Buttigieg added, “ours is the campaign that will defeat this president.”

Updated

Trump campaign calls caucuses 'the sloppiest train wreck in history'

The Trump campaign has released a statement mocking the Democratic party for its handling of the Iowa caucuses, calling the delay in reporting of results “the sloppiest train wreck in history”.

“Democrats are stewing in a caucus mess of their own creation with the sloppiest train wreck in history,” the statement from Trump’s campaign manager, Brad Parscale, says.

The campaign also raised concerns about the “fairness of the process” after some conservative personalities spread baseless claims that the delay was evidence of a Democratic conspiracy.

“And these are the people who want to run our entire health care system?” Parscale said in the statement. “Tonight President Trump posted a record performance in the well-run GOP Iowa caucuses with record turnout for an incumbent.”

Updated

Like many of the candidates, Elizabeth Warren decided to put her supporters out of their misery tonight rather than make them hang on for the caucus results.

Elizabeth Warren speaks to supporters at a caucus night campaign rally.
Elizabeth Warren speaks to supporters at a caucus night campaign rally. Photograph: Sue Ogrocki/AP

About 200 people had gathered at the Forte banquet and conference center in downtown Des Moines, creating a rowdy atmosphere in spite of the extremely bright lighting and poorly-policed line for the bar.

“It’s too close to call,” Warren told the crowd. She then launched into a speech that sounded as if it had been pre-written in anticipation of a strong performance.

“Iowa, tonight, you showed that big dreams are still possible in America,” Warren said, although at the time she was speaking Iowa, or at least the Iowa Democratic party, had really shown very little at all.

“Tonight you showed that when you imagine an America that lives up to its ideals, you can set in motion the process of making it a reality: all it takes is some hard work.”

There were cheers from the crowd – particularly when Warren thanked her dog, a golden retriever named Bailey, for his support – but really, this was an anti-climax.

Iowa might have shown that big dreams are still possible, and that America can live up to its ideals, but Warren’s supporters will have to wait a while to find out for certain.

Updated

Results delay resurrects the question: should Iowa go first?

Even more so than past caucuses, Iowa has received a lot of scrutiny this election cycle over whether it should continue to vote first, considering the Democratic Party is increasingly diverse and 90% of the state’s residents are white.

But tonight’s issues with reporting the results of the caucuses have intensified concerns about Iowa playing such an important role in the party’s nominating contest.

David Plouffe, the campaign manager for Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign, predicted this would be “the last Iowa caucus”:

Elizabeth Warren will soon leave Iowa, even as the results of the caucuses remain unknown. It’s becoming increasingly likely that candidates will head to New Hampshire with no sense of how they performed in the first voting state.

Iowa results may not come out tonight, Democratic source tells the Hill

One of Bernie Sanders’ top surrogates, Nina Turner, told those gathered at the candidate’s Des Moines party that he would come out again if results are released tonight.

But a Democratic source told the Hill that results may not be released tonight at all:

Hanging in results limbo with only a downstairs Starbucks for relief, supporters of Joe Biden put frustration aside when their candidate strode out on stage, accompanied by his wife, Jill.

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and his wife Jill appear at an election night rally in Des Moines.
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and his wife Jill appear at an election night rally in Des Moines. Photograph: Iván Alvarado/Reuters

Standing above a forest of camera phones amid chants of “We love Joe”, Biden said: “Folks, well it looks like it’s going to be a long night, but I’m feeling good.”

The crowd cheered.

The former vice-president continued: “Well, the Iowa Democratic party’s working to get this result, get them straight, and I want to make sure they’re very careful in their deliberations and indications are it’s going to be close.

“We’re going to walk out of here with our share of delegates. We don’t know exactly what it is yet, but we feel good about where we are. So it’s on to New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and well beyond. We’re in this for the long haul.”

If polls and mood music are anything to go by, it may be that the results chaos enabled Biden to dodge what might have been a bleak speech on a disappointing night.

He reverted to familiar elements of his stump speech: “This isn’t just another election. This is well beyond our party. This is about ending an era ... look, this is bigger than any of us. It really is. We cannot allow Donald Trump to be re-elected to the United States presidency.

“I’m ready to give a new nickname. ‘The former President Trump.’”

Biden rounded off: “We choose science over fiction, unity over division and compassion over cruelty. And maybe most importantly of all, truth over lies. Folks, we’re going to do this, I promise you. I promise you, we’re going to get this done. And God willing, we’ll do it together.”

Updated

Like several other candidates, Bernie Sanders is now addressing supporters at his Des Moines party, predicting he will do “very, very well” once results are finally released.

Five hundred and twenty-six Iowans packed into a gymnasium at Faith Baptist Bible College in Ankeny, a fast-growing suburb north of Des Moines.

There were plenty of families and young people, including a number of babies and small children. But not all households shared a candidate. One couple walked in, kissed each other goodbye and headed to their respective corners: him for Pete Butigieg, her for Elizabeth Warren.

From the outset, it was clear that Buttigieg, Warren and Bernie Sanders had the biggest crowds, with Joe Biden and Amy Klobuchar on the bubble.

The first alignment commenced shortly after 8pm, and the Andrew Yang, Klobuchar and Tom Steyer teams set to work trying to persuade each other to make their candidate “viable” in the precinct. The Sanders crowd got a bit rowdy.

“Go back to your wine cave,” one Sanders supporter shouted at the Buttigieg corner.

“Classy,” a man shouted back.

A volunteer for Biden attempted a somewhat hamfisted pitch to the more than three dozen Yang supporters.

“Talk is talk,” he said. But Biden, “he’s going to save our country, not just give away free money”.

There were a few boos and one Yang supporter rejected the offer: “Bad closer.”

After several minutes of commotion, the chair interrupted the proceedings to announce that there were some undecided Iowans in the room.

“Please raise your card in the air if you’re undecided,” the chair asked.

A solitary hand shot up. Heads whipped to the center of the room. Within moments, Loretta Bergez was surrounded by the precinct captians for each candidate.

“Medicare for All.”

“Climate change.”

“Universal basic income.”

“Let her breathe! Give her space,” Warren’s precinct captain said, interrupting the huddle. They all backed away.

Eventually, Bergez made up her mind.

She would support Sanders. She backed him in 2016, but said she would be happy to support any one of the candidates running.

But the real winner from the Polk county precinct was Buttigieg. He came in first on both ballots and his team converted the most people on the second alignment.

Under Trump, affluent suburbs of large metro areas have transformed from Republican strongholds to battlegrounds that the Democrats conquered in the 2018 midterms. Success in the Iowa suburbs could help a candidate make the case for electability.

Updated

Biden's campaign says reporting system 'failed' in letter to IDP

Joe Biden’s campaign has sent a fiery letter to the Iowa Democratic party, saying the app and the back-up phone system meant to convey results have “failed”.

The candidate’s general counsel said the campaign looked forward to hearing “full explanations” on how the reporting got derailed “before any official results are released.”

“In the meantime,” the letter concludes, “we are on to New Hampshire, on the road to most important election of our lifetimes.”

Updated

Candidates take the stage as results remain unclear

As the results of the Iowa caucuses remain unknown, several candidates have started addressing their supporters at parties across Des Moines.

Joe Biden told his supporters to expect a “long night” but said he felt confident:

Elizabeth Warren said the race was “too close to call” but applauded Democrats for getting “one step closer” to defeating Trump.

Here at Pete Buttigieg’s party, one of his surrogates, congressman Anthony Brown, said the former mayor was “on his way” and was expecting “a really good night”.

Updated

IDP finds 'inconsistencies' in reporting of the results

The Iowa Democratic party has released another statement, saying officials found “inconsistencies in the reporting of three sets of results”.

As a reminder, this is the first time that precinct chairs have been asked to report three different sets of results: first alignment, final alignment and state delegate equivalent.

The state delegate equivalent is the most important number and will be used to determine the winner of the caucuses.

Updated

Meanwhile, some Republicans are declaring victory from the Democratic caucuses, claiming the state party’s disorganization is evidence of the candidates’ inability to compete against Trump in November.

From the president’s former chief of staff:

Despite the delay in results, some Democratic candidates are addressing supporters at their parties in Des Moines. Amy Klobuchar said her team was convinced the results would show they were “punching above our weight.”

Some conservative personalities, including Donald Trump Jr, are now trying to spread the baseless claim that the delay in reporting of the results is evidence of a Democratic conspiracy.

At the risk of stating the obvious, there is no evidence of this theory. A more likely explanation for the delay is this:

At Amy Klobuchar’s watch party in downtown Des Moines, many supporters are wearing bright green T-shirts with a single message at the heart of the Minnesota senator’s candidacy: “Amy Klobuchar will beat Donald Trump.”

Tim Immel, a Klobuchar precinct captain from Clive, Iowa, predicted Klobuchar’s strength was her electability and she would exceed expectations Monday evening, which would force more people to pay attention to her. He said Klobuchar got the most delegates in his precinct.

“It’s gonna open up people’s eyes,” he said. “The press that want to adorn four people and only want to talk to four people, I think they’re gonna have to talk to somebody else after tonight.”

Judy Fitzgerald, who is from Chicago but was also a precinct captain here, said she targeted women in her attempts to sway caucusgoers to Klobuchar. She told the story of how Klobuchar was motivated to go into politics after being forced to leave the hospital 24 hours after giving birth even though her daughter was not well.

“This is something, as I said to women, that would never cross a man’s mind,” she said. “Women can bring up the issues that are core to women and children.”

Fitzgerald is in her 70s and added that she wants to see a woman president in her lifetime.

Fitzgerald’s husband, John, said Klobuchar initially started out in fourth place, but were able to swing enough people to Klobuchar at their precinct in Adel so that she eventually got the most delegates.

Updated

Some campaigns, including Elizabeth Warren’s, are expressing concern that the delay in the reporting of results could taint the process as candidates hope to be able to declare victory.

If turnout is “on pace with 2016”, as the Iowa Democratic party reported, it could be bad news for Bernie Sanders, who has said he is counting on high turnout to capture a victory tonight. (Sanders narrowly lost the Iowa caucuses to Hillary Clinton in 2016.)

The turnout in 2016 was roughly two-thirds of what it was in 2008, when Barack Obama was able to land a surprise victory.

If more moderate candidates like Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden are able to run up their numbers in the more moderate counties, it could help them surpass Sanders in the all-important state delegate equivalent tally, which is used to determine the winner of the Iowa caucuses.

Updated

Here in Howard county, precinct officials say it’s taking 20 minutes or more to get a call through to give results.

Others are still sitting on the phone, the last people in the hall, weary and wanting to go home. Quite a bit of eye-rolling at the organisation.

IDP reports turnout is 'on pace for 2016'

Here’s the full statement from the Iowa Democratic Party on the delayed reporting of tonight’s results:

The integrity of the results is paramount. We have experienced a delay in the results due to quality checks and the fact that the IDP is reporting out three data sets for the first time. What we know right now is that around 25% of precincts have reported, and early data indicates turnout is on pace for 2016.

Updated

I’ve just been chatting to Nelini Stamp, director of strategy at the Working Families party, a progressive coalition of labor unions, community organizations and other groups which endorsed Elizabeth Warren in September.

Stamp has been door-knocking for Warren for days, and at the caucus she attended tonight, in Clive, Warren came in first following realignment.

Amid all the excitement of caucus night in Iowa, Stamp said it was worth remembering how unrepresentative the state is of the US – and how problematic that is, given Iowa’s outsized say in who ends up running for president.

“At some point we’re gonna have to figure out how to have real representation in the United States,” Stamp said, pointing out that 90% of the population of Iowa is white.

“I think we should be talking about it more. We have a growing majority of people who are not white in the United States.”

In November, Julián Castro – who dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Warren in January – pointed out that Democrats can’t “complain about Republicans suppressing the votes of people of color, and then begin our nominating contest in two states that hardly have people of color”.

“It doesn’t make any sense,” he said. “I believe, as many Iowans themselves do, that it’s time that our presidential nominating process reflects our nation’s and our party’s diversity. That’s just the truth.”

The Working Families party endorsed Bernie Sanders in 2016, but its members decided to back Warren this time round, in a move which rather upset some Sanders supporters.

Updated

According to BuzzFeed News, the presidential campaigns will soon be briefed by the Iowa Democratic party on the technical issue delaying the reporting of results from tonight’s caucuses.

Updated

Here’s the latest on the delayed results: after earlier reports of issues with the app designed to communicate precinct-level results, some officials are saying they have been unable to get through on the hotline that was supposed to be the backup for app malfunctions.

Updated

Tom Miller, Iowa’s long-serving attorney general who endorsed Joe Biden last month, was forced to caucus for Pete Buttigieg after the former vice president failed to hit viability in Miller’s precinct.

Iowa Democratic party says it is performing 'quality control' on results

In a statement to MSNBC about the delay in results, the Iowa Democratic party (IDP) said it is performing “quality control” on the numbers “out of an abundance of caution”.

Asked when the party might start releasing results, the IDP said there was no ETA at this point.

This is the first year that the party is releasing three numbers: the first alignment total, the final alignment total and the state delegative equivalent (SDE).

The SDE is the number that will be used to determine the winner of the Iowa caucuses, but the delay in reporting results raises some concerns about how the precincts have handled the new reporting practices.

Updated

At Des Moines-55, where more than 800 people caucused, Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders captured the most delegates, followed by Elizabeth Warren.

The caucus at Ankeny-12, where the Guardian’s Lauren Gambino was, has concluded, and Pete Buttigieg secured the highest number of supporters, followed by Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

Anecdotal evidence so far indicates Buttigieg is benefitting from realignment, as caucusgoers who supported non-viable candidates swing to the former Indiana mayor.

Results have been slower this year than with past caucuses, possibly because of the high level of turnout and number of candidates.

But some precinct chairs also reported earlier issues with the app meant to communicate results, which could be slowing down the process. (The Iowa Democratic party said tonight that the issue would not affect the process of the caucuses.)

Updated

At one Des Moines caucus site, the supporters of candidates who failed to hit viability declined to realign for one of the viable candidates and instead joined forces to support ... Cory Booker?

In case you forgot, Booker dropped out of the race last month after determining he had no path to the Democratic nomination. Apparently some Des Moines voters disagree.

At one Polk County precinct, Elizbaeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg ended up with the same number of supporters after realignment.

The caucus organizers had to determine which of the two candidates would win an extra delegate. How did they decide? A coin toss, of course!

Team Pete won the coin toss and the second delegate along with it. Bernie Sanders also won two delegates, while Warren and Joe Biden got one each.

Lara Trump, wife of the president’s son, Eric, and a campaign senior adviser, addressed the caucusgoers, many of whom were holding “Keep America Great” and “Women for Trump” signs in the school cafeteria.

“Who’s ready for four more years of Donald Trump?” she asked to rousing cheers and applause.

Lara Trump extolled her father-in-law’s achievements in office but could not resist swiping at Democrats: “It is absolutely terrifying. The people running on the Democratic side... want to turn things around 180 degrees ... full-blown socialism, full blown government control of everything.”

She added: “The media has totally gone off the rails. The Democrats have gone off the rails and are unhinged.”

Trump’s impeachment by the House of Representatives was, Lara Trump argued, not about a phone call to the president of Ukraine in July but rather about undoing the 2016 election result.

And she reminisced: “If you thought it was fun, folks, watching the media meltdown that night, think about doing it a second time.”

Then Republican presidential candidate Bill Weld spoke wistfully of the era of George H W Bush and earned polite applause. But Joe Walsh, a conservative Republican turned Trump critic, dared to play Daniel in the lion’s den. “Republicans!” he entreated “We’ve got to be more decent. We can’t be cruel.”

A woman shouted in response: “I love our president. I like his tweets.”

Walsh gamely fought on even as he lost the crowd. “If you send me to the White House, I will enact conservative policies but I make you a promise. I will be decent and I won’t be cruel. I will be honest and I won’t lie.”

He continued: “Look, if you want four more years of the Donald Trump show...” but was drowned out by angry shouts in the affirmative.

Walsh said: “Last thing I’ll say. If you want four more years of a president who wakes up every morning and makes every day about himself, then vote for Donald Trump.”

There was uproar and loud booing. One man, wearing Trump regalia, bellowed: “You’re done!”

Updated

So far, Pete Buttigieg appears to be benefitting from realignment, as some of his opponents fail to hit viability in certain precincts.

As a reminder, a candidate’s numbers after the second and final alignment are the most important to watch because those will be the figures used to calculate state delegate equivalents (SDEs).

The candidate with the most SDEs at the end of the night will be named the winner of the Iowa caucuses.

The results from precincts across Howard county are proving to be a real mixed bag for the candidates.

In the main city, Cresco, Bernie Sanders won in one precinct and got no votes at all in another.

Joe Biden suffered the same fate in a different precinct, receiving not a single vote while Pete Buttigieg came out in front followed by Amy Klobuchar, Sanders and Andrew Yang.

Although the votes are all over the place, the candidate who looks to be the most consistent in this county is Buttigieg, always picking up enough support to go through to the second round of voting. At least so far.

Elizabeth Warren, who had to be in Washington earlier today for the Senate impeachment trial, appeared at a Des Moines caucus site to deliver her campaign pitch in person.

Eighteen Iowans made history Tuesday evening as they became the first people to participate in a caucus hosted entirely in American Sign Language in Des Moines.

Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg were the three viable candidates after the first round of voting. Warren ultimately earned two delegates while Biden and Buttigieg earned one each.

But for many who attended, the significance of the event extended beyond choosing a nominee. It was the first time many had caucused, since the process can be so exclusionary towards deaf people.

August Cordero said he attended a caucus a while back, but sat out and watched. He and Dee Cordero, 75 and 66, respectively, were among those who caucused for the first time. They both supported Biden.

“I’ve been paying my taxes for several years ... We should be able to be involved in the political process, but due to communication, not being able to hear, it was a barrier before,” August Cordero said.

Before the attendees divided into preference groups, they gathered in a circle for a discussion, entirely in sign language, of why they were supporting the candidates. They discussed the electability of Biden and Sanders, as well as the different plans each had for voters with disabilities. Two interpreters translated for reporters in the room observing.

Vania Kassouf, 42, traveled from Cedar Rapids – a two-hour drive – to participate in the event. She’s never caucused before and came in supporting Amy Klobuchar.

“It feels amazing. We’re finally able to participate,” she said. “I just feel so thankful for the Democratic party and the caucuses to be so inclusive of people with disabilities. Coming here, I just feel it was so important to be a patriot, to support America, to be involved in this discussion.

The caucus took place at the Central Iowa Center for Independent Living. About 60 people attended a separate caucus in the next room designed to be accessible for people with disabilities.

Updated

Here are some interesting numbers from the AP VoteCast survey of more than 2,700 Iowa voters who said they intended to participate in the Democratic caucuses tonight:

  • About four in 10 voters identified healthcare as the most important issue, compared to three in 10 who said climate change.
  • About eight in 10 caucusgoers said they were “angry” with the Trump administration.
  • More than four in 10 caucusgoers said a woman would have a hard time defeating Trump. Almost six in 10 said the same of a gay candidate.
  • Nearly nine in 10 described the economy as very or somewhat unfair.

Updated

At one of the bigger caucus sites in Des Moines, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden barely hit viability, as Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg excelled in the first alignment.

Of course, those numbers could shift with the second and final alignment, as those caucusgoers who backed other candidates are given the chance to shift their support to one of the viable candidates. (Read more about viability and alignment here.)

Officials from the Iowa Democratic party are saying earlier reports of malfunctions with the app meant to communicate precinct-level results will not hinder tonight’s caucuses.

The AP reports:

Iowa Democratic party chairman Troy Price said Monday that there were some reports from precinct officials that they couldn’t log into the app during the first-in-the-nation caucuses.

He said a team of troubleshooters is working to address any technical issues.

He added that the party has alternate ways for precincts to send in results, including a hotline.

‘We’ve had an app before, but we’ve also had a hotline before, and folks have had the option to do that, and so we expect that we’ll be able to report the results in a timely manner this evening,’ he said.

Updated

Theresa Greenfield, the leading Democratic candidate in the primary to take on the Republican senator Joni Ernst, is caucusing for Amy Klobuchar, one of Ernst’s Senate colleagues.

Updated

In the Howard county precinct I am at in Cresco, there has been a shock in the first round of voting when Elizabeth Warren failed to win 15% of the vote and go through to the second round.

Bernie Sanders came in first with Pete Buttigieg and Joe Biden in equal second. Andrew Yang and Amy Klobuchar were also knocked out.

This is just one precinct, but most people here very surprised Warren did not reach viability.

The caucus in this precinct has also seen a sharp increase in turnout, up about 30% from four years ago, with people here saying Donald Trump was the biggest motivation to get out and vote.

Updated

It’s still extremely early in the night, but so far, Joe Biden is underperforming in key areas across the state, leading the editor of the Cook Political Report to predict the former vice-president will not finish in the top three tonight.

Updated

Caucusing is underway in Colfax, about 20 miles east of Des Moines. I’m at Colfax-Mingo high school, where about 60 people have gathered to have their say, and so far it’s looking good for Pete Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

Each of those has about 12 people gathered around their own canteen table. This is a first time caucusing for Nancy Rowe, 71, who’s going with Warren.

“I think at 71 I should start caring. I don’t have too many caring years left,” Rowe said.

“She’s straightforward,” Rowe said of Warren. “She gets to the point, she don’t take any guff from anybody. She sticks up for herself and everybody. She’s for us, and that’s what we need – somebody for the people.”

Other than the Buttigieg, Sanders and Warren tables, the room is pretty sparse. Surprisingly, given his lackluster polling, the billionaire Tom Steyer has managed to attract five people to his table, although one of those is a baby.

Updated

Trump wins uncompetitive Republican caucuses

Fun fact: Iowa Republicans are (technically) also caucusing tonight. And the Associated Press has already declared Donald Trump to be the winner.

There was an unsuccessful effort by Republican candidates such as Joe Walsh and Mark Sanford to try to challenge Trump for the party’s presidential nomination, but those bids have failed to gain any traction because of Trump’s enduring popularity among his base.

The Guardian’s David Smith attended a Walsh event in Iowa over the weekend.

Updated

Joe Biden failed to hit viability in one Des Moines precinct dominated by younger voters, as the former vice-president was outgunned by tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang.

Those who did caucus for Biden will have the chance to align with another candidate during the second round. (Read more about the realignment process here.)

Updated

Iowa congresswoman Cindy Axne, a freshman Democrat who has endorsed Joe Biden, spoke at her caucus site in an effort to convince voters to support the former vice-president.

Axne, who faces a difficult re-election later this year, focused her pitch on electability, telling fellow caucusgoers: “We must flip the Oval Office.”

Updated

I’ve been in Iowa for a week, and I keep hearing voters says they like Amy Klobuchar but they’re not sure she can win. If you haven’t heard yet: Iowans are racked with anxiety trying to figure out who is best positioned to defeat Trump.

So this afternoon ahead of the caucuses I went to one of Klobuchar’s field offices in West Des Moines to ask how volunteers are plan to convert that goodwill into support.

Klobuchar’s supporters wear green shirts that lay out their case on the back: “turned 42 Trump counties blue in 2018” and “win big in the midwest” are among the top reasons to support her.

At the office, I spoke to Barb Krohn, 66, who drove 945 miles from Pennsylvania to knock doors for the Minnesota senator, who is running on her ability to win in the midwest.

Pennsylvania is among those must-win states for Democrats that Trump picked off in 2016. She likes to tell people that her husband, a lifelong Republican and Pennsylvania voter, is supporting Klobuchar - the first Democratic campaign he has ever donated to in his life. While she says he won’t vote for Trump, the economics professor is unlikely to support Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.

Krohn’s interest in Klobuchar began during Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation hearing, when the senator kept her cool as the future supreme court justice snapped. (He later apologized.)

“Imagine how she’ll be against Trump in a debate,” Krohn tells Iowans. Electing a female president is also important for Krohn, who comes from a long line of glass-ceiling breakers.

She knows Klobuchar faces long odds. She is currently polling fifth in Iowa at 9%, according to an average by RealClearPolitics. If she does not reach the 15% viability threshold to earn delegates, her supporters could help to swing the result depending on who they back on a second round.

Klobuchar was seen as the candidate with the most to lose from being off the trail for the impeachment trial of Trump. Unlike her fellow senators and rivals, Warren and Sanders, she does not have a prodigious fundraising operation or a national brand.

But Krohn remains optimistic. Earlier this week she met Klobuchar supporters for dinner at a Chinese restaurant. On the way out, she opened a fortune cookie. It read: “You will be part of something great.”

Updated

Iowa voters are excited for the caucuses – perhaps too excited. One Des Moines caucusgoer tried to bring a bottle of wine into a caucus site, but it was discovered when it fell and shattered on the gymnasium floor.

Updated

Numbers are trickling in from various outlets’ Iowa entrance polls, and one figure will probably stand out to Joe Biden and his supporters.

According to NBC News, about two-thirds of caucusgoers said they would rather have a a nominee who “can beat Donald Trump”, rather than a nominee who “agrees with you on major issues”.

In past polls, voters who prioritize a candidate’s perceived ability to defeat Trump have gravitated toward more moderate candidates like Biden.

However, the defintion of “electability”, which often works against female and minority candidates, can vary depending on a voter’s preferences. It’s been shown that voters are likely to view their preferred candidate as the most “electable”.

Updated

The Guardian’s Lauren Gambino is at a a caucus site in Ankeny, just outside Des Moines.

Caucusgoers in the fast-growing suburb were expected to lean toward Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg, but Bernie Sanders also appears to have a lively contingent of fans present.

Iowa caucuses begin

It is 7pm CT, so the Iowa caucuses are officially under way, kicking off the Democratic presidential primary.

Because of the streamlined rules this year, officials hope the caucuses can wrap up within an hour.

But one of the largest caucus sites in Des Moines is already seeing long lines of voters looking to change their party affiliation or register in order to caucus tonight.

Updated

According to CNN’s entrance poll, about 35% of interviewed caucusgoers said this was their first time participating in a caucus, marking a decrease from 2016 and 2008.

Outsider candidates like Andrew Yang and (to a lesser extent) Bernie Sanders are counting on bringing in new caucusgoers to help increase their final numbers.

If the crowds that turn up at the caucuses tonight are dominated by longtime Democrats, it could be beneficial for more “establishment” candidates like Joe Biden.

But voting will get under way in just a few minutes, so the results will soon speak for themselves.

Democratic voters’ second choices scramble conventional notions of a “leftwing lane” versus a “moderate lane”, according to national polling data released on Monday.

Among supporters of former vice president Joe Biden, the second choice is almost exactly split between progressive senators Elizabeth Warren (29%) and Bernie Sanders (28%), the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group found. Former mayor Pete Buttigieg, a perceived centrist, is way back on 12%.

Conversely, Sanders’ supporters are evenly split between Biden (35%) and Warren (35%) as their alternative. Warren’s supporters give a slight edge to Biden (35%) over Sanders (33%).

But for Buttigieg supporters, there is a more even divide: 24% name Warren as their second choice, followed by 21% for Biden and 20% for Sanders.

“The Democratic party is often broken down into centrist and left lanes – with Warren and Sanders to the left and Biden and Buttigieg in the center,” the study authors say. “But when looking at voters’ second choice candidate, the lanes disappear – with nearly equal numbers of voters going to both centrist and left candidates with their second choice.

“At tonight’s caucus and in primaries to come, it isn’t clear who will benefit by those who drop out of the race.”

Ominously for Democrats, the study – for which 5,900 adults took an online survey between 22 November and 23 December – also found that so-called Obama-Trump voters remain loyal to the president. His favourability with this group was +57, whereas Biden was -58, Sanders -51 and Warren -61.

The caucuses will begin in just 10 minutes, and every Democratic presidential candidate knows how important the results will be.

Iowa ranks pretty low in terms of delegate count for the Democratic nominating process, but its influence as the first voting state is immeasurable.

For context, a Democratic presidential candidate needs to win 1,990 delegates, which are allocated based off state caucus and primary results, to capture the nomination. Iowa awards only 41 delegates. In comparison, California, the top prize for Democratic candidates, awards 415 delegates.

Despite that comparitively low delegate number, performing well in Iowa can be crucial to winning bigger states later on, as explained in this NBC News clip from the 1976 caucuses.

Voters at Joe Biden’s final campaign rally in Des Moines on Sunday offered pragmatic reasons for sticking with him through thick and thin.

Joe Biden speaks at a campaign stop at Hiatt Middle School in Des Moines, Iowa.
Joe Biden speaks at a campaign stop at Hiatt Middle School in Des Moines, Iowa. Photograph: Andrew Harnik/AP

Jon Lewis, 56, a lawyer, said: “I think he can beat Trump and we’re a moderate country: we’re not looking to tear it all down and rebuild it immediately. If Mitch McConnell stays in office, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are not going to get anything through, whereas Joe Biden may.”

Biden, 77, would be the oldest president ever elected, which some regard as a liability. “That’s ageism,” Lewis said. “I’m going to be 80 one day. Joe’s going to live to 100. His mental faculties are still intact. People confuse his lifelong speech impediment with his brain not working.”

Michele Johnson, 48, who is unemployed, agreed: “His experience is what’s going to help us in the end. Joe can help bring the parties together and make sure things happen.

“Sanders and Warren are telling us we can get free medical: no we can’t! I’m a realist. I can’t believe them.”

Johnson said her second choice would be the Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar, a sentiment echoed by Ted Hansen, 54, who owns a car repossession company.

Hansen said: “They’re all going to beat Trump. I just think Joe Biden is the person who can pull moderate Republicans over.

“I have supported him and his policies for a long time. He is a strong union supporter and I think that’s what makes working people strong together. He’s the man.”

Updated

Iowa voters will begin caucusing in just 30 minutes. Because of the streamlined rules this year, Iowa officials have said the caucuses could wrap up within an hour, or by 8pm CT.

However, some precinct chairs across the state are now reporting issues with the app they are supposed to use to log results, which could delay tonight’s returns.

Bloomberg News reports:

The application is one of the ways local officials who oversee individual caucuses are able to send results from each of the nearly 1,700 sites to the Iowa Democratic party, which compiles and checks the results.

The app was created to improve the efficiency of reporting of results, but chairs unable to use the app on Monday will send their results to the party via a call-in number. The party hotline has always been available to precinct chairs. State party officials said they have no concerns that the results will be counted inaccurately.

The final tally could be delayed by a few hours because the chairs will have to call the hotline and read the results instead of submitting them electronically.

And as a CNN analyst noted, past caucuses have varied wildly in terms of how long it took to determine a winner:

Updated

Andrew Yang has been the busiest of the Democratic candidates today, pulling off no less than four campaign events before caucusing begins.

The entrepreneur, whose signature policy proposal is to distribute a universal basic income of $1,000 a month, swung through Grinnell, Davenport, Oskaloosa and Iowa City en route to Des Moines for his caucus night party. I stopped by Yang’s event at his Iowa City campaign office – an office where the floor is paved with “$1,000 bills” with Yang’s face printed on the front – this afternoon.

After the chants of “Yang! Yang!”, and the occasional shout of “Powerpoint!” – another Yang rallying cry – the candidate told the crowd:“The revolution will not be televised.” He’s been quoting the Gil Scott-Heron song/poem all week. Yang also told his supporters, who were preparing to go out canvassing, that “every person you talk to is worth their weight in gold”.

Yang is averaging sixth place in Iowa polls, with about 3% of the vote, but his supporters are among the most enthusiastic I’ve seen out here – possibly alongside Bernie Sanders – and with the potential for last-minute cajoling that the caucuses allow, maybe that support could have an impact.

“I think we’re looking at third,” said Musa Jamshed, a precinct captain for Yang in Iowa City.

Jamshed, 23, said he was hopeful of “any veering into this perceived top tier of candidates” – referring to Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg – which he believes could give Yang a big kick moving onto the next states.

Updated

Sanders goes into caucuses with polling edge

Recent polling has shown a close race in Iowa between Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar, but Sanders appears to have a slight edge over his competitors going into tonight’s caucuses.

Bernie Sanders campaigns two days before the Iowa Caucus.
Bernie Sanders campaigns two days before the Iowa caucuses. Photograph: Barcroft Media/Barcroft Media via Getty Images

The RealClearPolitics polling average of Iowa shows Sanders standing at 23%, compared to Biden in second place at 19.3%, and the polling website FiveThirtyEight gives the Vermont senator the best odds of winning.

But the final results will likely come down to realignment, which is when caucusgoers are given the chance to support another candidate if their first choice does not hit viability. (Read more about that here.)

Polls have indicated that Biden and Buttigieg could benefit the most from realignment, so Sanders will need to turn out more of his loyal fans to ensure a victory tonight.

Luckily for Sanders, one of his top surrogates, congressman Ro Khanna, is already working hard to win over voters during realignment.

Updated

The Guardian’s team is spread out across Iowa tonight to cover the caucuses, and Chris McGreal has this dispatch from Howard county in north-eastern Iowa:

Howard county, a mix of blue-collar workers and farmers, saw the largest swing of any county in the US from Obama to Trump in 2016 - by more than 40%.

But before that, it voted solidly for Bernie Sanders (by 54%) in the Democratic primary against Hillary Clinton that year. The chair of the county Democratic party, Laura Hubka, said that in both cases, the votes were kicking back against the ‘establishment candidate’ in Clinton.

Hubka was a big supporter of Sanders in 2016 but after he lost the primary she decided that, as much as she liked his policies, the rest of America wasn’t ready for them. So this time she’s supporting Pete Buttigieg. But what concerns Hubka more than who wins tonight’s primary are signs that Howard county is swinging away from Trump.

‘I really want to see the turnout. I want to see swing voters. I want to see the Republicans that are coming in to switch parties and vote for one of our candidates, and who that candidate might be. And also return voters. People that left us last time. And I want to see first time registrations,’ she said.

‘My biggest thing is to see how energised people are for our candidates, and hopefully this caucus is very well-attended. That will show me there’s a lot of excitement in the county, and I’m going to have all of those names and all of those phone numbers to continue my work until November.’

The biggest concentration of voters tonight will be in Cresco, the county seat, at the Crestwood high school which includes among its graduates five US navy admirals, the country’s first flight attendant and Norman Borlaug, ‘the father of the Green Revolution’.

Updated

Donald Trump Jr heckled at Iowa press conference

A rancourous election foretold. Donald Trump Jr was heckled on Monday by a furious protester who accused his father of stoking antisemitic violence.

Donald Trump Jr. speaks during a press conference in Des Moines, Iowa.
Donald Trump Jr. speaks during a press conference in Des Moines, Iowa. Photograph: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

The US president’s eldest son was speaking at a Trump campaign press conference in a hotel ballroom in Des Moines, Iowa, ahead of the distinctly uncompetitive Republican caucuses.

Following brother Eric Trump and other speakers, Don Jr had just begin his remarks when a bearded man, wearing a white sweater, stood up and shouted: “Since your father was elected president, more and more Jews are being gunned down every year.”

Don Jr, an increasingly prominent campaign surrogate, retorted: “I don’t think anyone’s done more for Israel and for American Jews than Donald Trump, so you can keep going.”

As he spoke, the man was being forcibly hauled across the room, in front of the podium, by burly security guards. The protester resisted fiercely and continued shouting but was eventually removed.

Don Jr gloated: “This is why I wrote the book Triggered, folks!” He went on to list his father’s perceived achievements for Jews and Israel and accused congressional Democrats of “saying antisemitic things”, gaining applause from supporters who rose to their feet.

The president’s son also attacked the “commie wing” of the Democratic party over its trillion dollar plans. “There has never been a greater divide between the two parties,” he said. “There has never been a greater divide between the two ideologies. Frankly, we can’t recognise much of the other side.”

The press conference was a who’s who of Trump world including campaign manager Brad Parscale, White House acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, US commerce secretary Wilbur Ross, former energy secretary Rick Perry and Representatives Matt Gaetz, Jim Jordan, Kevin McCarthy, Mark Meadows and Elise Stefanik.

Don Jr’s girlfriend, Kimberly Guilfoyle, made some improbable claims: “We have the best president this country has ever seen ... I thank President Trump for uniting this country, in fact ... When he makes the American people a promise, he is a man who honours and exceeds his word.”

And Eric was clapped when he lauded the Trump presidency and remarked: “We’re saying ‘Merry Christmas’ again. We weren’t saying that.”

Updated

Here's how the caucuses work

Iowans will soon gather at caucus sites across the state to kick off the Democratic presidential primary. But the structure of the Iowa caucuses is quite different from the New Hampshire primary that will take place next week.

Here’s how the caucuses work: voters must be at their caucus sites by 7pm CT to participate. Once the caucus begins, voters will participate in a “first alignment”, where they will get the chance to register their support for their first-choice candidate.

After the first alignment, caucus organizers will determine which candidates have met the threshold of viability, which is usually 15%. Those who aligned with a candidate who failed to hit 15% will be asked to choose another candidate in the second and final realignment.

Once all caucusgoers have realigned, organizers will determine the totals for each of the viable candidates, which will be used to calculate state delegate equivalents (or SDEs). The SDEs reflect the number of delegates a candidate has earned for the Democratic party’s nominating convention in June.

The Associated Press, which is considered the outlet of record for election results, will use the SDEs to determine the winner of the Iowa caucuses. So it’s possible that a candidate like Bernie Sanders could have the highest level of support after the first alignment, but unless he can also attract the highest number of SDEs after the final realignment, he will not be the winner of the caucuses.

That being said, candidates will likely try to spin the results to their strengths. For example, if Joe Biden sees the biggest jump in support between the first and second alignments, he may point to that as a sign that he is the best “consensus” candidate, even if he doesn’t have the highest number of SDEs.

All of this can get a little confusing, which is why the blog is here to help pick apart the results.

Updated

Nineteen Iowans participated in the satellite caucus in Glasgow, and Bernie Sanders ended up with the most support.

But despite their differing political views, all the participants walked away feeling like they had made friends. That’s the midwest for you.

Updated

Although most Iowa caucuses will not be held until 7pm CT, a handful of satellite caucuses are being held this year to accommodate people, such as shift workers, who usually have a hard time participating.

Some satellite caucuses are even being held in other states and other countries to include caucusgoers currently living outside Iowa. One satellite caucus was held earlier today in Tbilisi, Georgia, and two others are taking place in Paris and Glasgow.

Updated

Iowa holds first caucuses of the Democratic presidential primary

Greetings from Iowa, live blog readers!

One day after the actual Super Bowl, we have arrived at the Super Bowl of American politics: the Iowa caucuses. Tonight, Democrats in the Hawkeye state will kick off the party’s months-long process to select the presidential nominee who will eventually face off against Donald Trump.

The campaign bus for Joe Biden is seen parked in front of the Iowa State Capitol.
The campaign bus for Joe Biden is seen parked in front of the Iowa State Capitol. Photograph: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Five candidates have emerged in the top tier of Iowa polls: Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar. Each of them has spent months campaigning in Iowa in the hope of winning the caucuses, which have frequently predicted the party’s eventual nominee.

Since 1972, when Iowa became the first-in-the-nation caucus state, seven of the Democratic winners have gone on to win the nomination. Although Iowa’s delegate count is relatively low compared to a state like California or New York, the winner of the caucuses can benefit from the momentum of a victory to propel them in later contests.

On the flip side, Iowa can end White House dreams. A poor showing in the first caucus state often dooms presidential campaigns, as it did for candidates like Republican Jeb Bush and Democrat Martin O’Malley in 2016.

Regardless of the winner, the results of the caucuses are guaranteed to reverberate far beyond Iowa, and the blog will have updates and analysis as the night unfolds. Voting begins in about two hours 7pm CT, so stay tuned.

Updated

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