RECAP: Asian shares reversed course and fell yesterday as investors took profits after record rallies in Japan and South Korea, while signs of an early snag in US-Iran talks lifted oil prices and the dollar.
The Thai index continued its slide to below a key resistance at 1,580, after falling for four consecutive days, as risk appetite was capped by a relatively hawkish Fed.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,609.71 and 1,570.10 points this week, before closing yesterday at 1,572.50, down 1.3% from the previous week, with daily turnover averaging 70.87 billion baht.
Institutional investors were net buyers of 8.33 billion baht, followed by foreign investors at 3.28 billion and brokerage firms at 3.08 billion. Retail investors were net sellers of 14.70 billion baht.
NEWSMAKERS: The US and Iran on Thursday signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding, effective immediately, with a 60-day window for further negotiations. Gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected over the next few days.
A day after the MoU signing, planned talks in Switzerland were put on hold after Vice President JD Vance postponed travel to Geneva, adding to uncertainty about prospects for reaching a lasting peace accord.
Bank of America said a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could result in Brent crude prices averaging $82 a barrel this year, down from a previous forecast of $93. Goldman Sachs lowered its fourth-quarter Brent forecast to $80 from $90.
The US Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate unchanged as widely expected at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday, but almost half the central bank's policymakers said they could support a hike later this year.
The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 72% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase in September in view of high inflation.
The Bank of Japan hiked interest rates to a 31-year high of 1% to contain inflation caused by the Mideast war. Core inflation held steady at 1.4% in May, but higher energy costs remain a concern.
The Bank of England held its benchmark rate at 3.75%, saying it would be premature to raise rates yet, given uncertainty about the strength of inflation pressure.
The Swiss National Bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at zero despite a recent uptick in fuel-related inflation.
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate target steady at 4.35%, following three consecutive hikes that triggered a tightening of financial conditions.
Bank Indonesia raised rates by 25 basis points to 5.75%, just a week after a surprise off-cycle hike, as it seeks to attract capital and prop up the battered rupiah.
The Philippine central bank raised its key rate by another 25 basis points to 4.75%, after an increase at the previous meeting in April.
The index provider MSCI is due to announce a decision on Indonesia's emerging market status on Tuesday. It has warned of a possible downgrade to "frontier market" status because of regulatory and other shortcomings.
South Korea's information and communication technology exports reached a record monthly high of $47.8 billion in May, jumping 129% year-on-year, driven by strong demand for semiconductors and other AI-linked products.
India's rice stocks in government warehouses have risen 15% year-on-year to a record high of 68.4 million tonnes, far exceeding the government's target of 13.5 million.
Trading in shares of SpaceX has been volatile since the blockbuster IPO that made founder Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire. The shares entered the market at $135 each on June 12 and rose as high as $225 this week, before closing just below $185 on Thursday.
Intel shares rose 10% on Thursday, after President Donald Trump said the semiconductor firm had agreed to a deal with Apple to design and build chips in the US. The two companies have not commented directly, but the US government owns 10% of Intel.
Yum Brands said it would sell its Pizza Hut chain for a combined $2.7 billion in two deals: one for China, its best-performing market, and the other for the rest of the world, where results have been mixed.
S&P Global Ratings has maintained Thailand's sovereign credit rating at BBB+ with a stable outlook, reflecting confidence in economic fundamentals, policy direction and ability to withstand external shocks.
Average Thai household income fell by 2.5% in 2025, the first decline in six years, primarily due to a contraction in income from work. Households cut average spending by 5.4% and increased their reliance on financial assistance, said SCB Economic Intelligence Centre.
The government has established the National Semiconductor Policy Committee to set strategy for the sector, aiming to attract 2.5 trillion baht in investment to Thailand.
The Tourism Authority of Thailand cut its long-haul arrival forecast from 11 million to 10 million, on par with 2025, citing flight disruptions caused by the Mideast conflict.
The Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand has approved four new airlines to launch flights to Thailand, including Riyadh Air and Virgin Atlantic, starting in October and flying into Suvarnabhumi and Phuket airports.
The Ministry of Transport has set a target for Bangkok's two main airports to handle 120 million passengers annually by 2029, up 26% from 2025 levels. To accommodate growth, a 12-billion-baht expansion will be purposed to increase terminal capacity.
The cabinet has approved an extension of the reduced e-withholding tax rate through 2027, which is expected to improve business liquidity by roughly 27 billion baht, Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said.
Thailand's industrial sentiment index dropped in May for a third straight month, to 84.7 from 85.3 in April due to the impact of the war in the Middle East, the FTI said.
The government has delayed progressive electricity tariff increases for users consuming more than 400 units a month, saying the issue is complicated, and instead focus on reducing structural costs.
COMING UP: On Monday, China announces its loan prime rate. On Tuesday, Japan releases core inflation, and the UK and US report the manufacturing PMI. On Wednesday, the US announces new home sales and crude oil inventories, followed by GDP, core personal consumption expenditure and durable goods orders on Thursday, and goods trade balance on Friday.
Locally, the Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee holds a rate meeting on Wednesday, while Bualuang Securities will present its outlook for depositary receipts and second-half investment trends.
STOCKS TO WATCH: Bualuang Securities recommends focusing on quality growth and high-dividend stocks in the second half of 2026. Its top picks are GULF and WHAUP, which stand to benefit from rising foreign direct investment; KCE from AI-driven electronics demand; COM7 and MOSHI from resilient consumption trends; ERW from a tourism recovery; and KTB, KBANK and SCB from stabilising interest rates and growing wealth management businesses.
InnovestX Securities expects the Bank of Thailand to keep interest rates unchanged next week. However, a hawkish Fed stance could pressure funding costs, limit upside in risk assets and increase fund flow volatility. Its top picks are OR, ADVANC and HANA.
TECHNICAL VIEW: Kasikorn Securities sees support at 1,560 points and resistance at 1,600. InnovestX Securities sees support at 1,545 and resistance at 1,610.
