Joby Aviation Inc. (NYSE:JOBY) shares declined after the company’s second-quarter results missed revenue and earnings expectations, intensifying investor concerns over its ability to sustain steep losses during a high-risk, pre-revenue phase without clear regulatory or commercial traction.
JPMorgan analyst Bill Peterson maintained an Underweight rating on the stock and reiterated his $7 price forecast. He highlighted Joby’s long development timeline and deep operational integration as strategic advantages. A key strength, he noted, is the company’s partnership with Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE:TM), which underpins Joby’s manufacturing strategy.
Peterson believes the market opportunity post-certification could surpass the current helicopter industry, driven by the noise reduction and safety improvements that eVTOLs are expected to deliver. Over the long term, he estimates Joby’s total addressable market could reach $200 billion to $300 billion.
However, Peterson cautioned that the investment case carries significant risk, citing regulatory uncertainty, a largely unproven business model, and challenges around market adoption and competitive dynamics. As a result, he continues to rate the stock Underweight.
The $7 price target for December 2026 is based on a blended valuation model, using 8x EV/Sales and 24x EV/EBITDA multiples applied to the company’s 2030 projections, discounted back to 2026 at a 12.5% rate to reflect elevated execution risk.
Peterson sees potential upside if adoption outpaces expectations or if Joby secures FAA certification earlier than projected. He added that Joby’s vertically integrated, ride-sharing-driven model could outperform traditional OEM approaches, and real-world fleet performance might exceed current forecasts.
On Wednesday, Joby reported a second-quarter loss of 41 cents per share, missing Wall Street’s expected loss of 19 cents. Revenue also disappointed, coming in at $15,000, well below the $43,000 estimate.
Despite the weak results, Joby ended the quarter with $991 million in cash and short-term investments. CEO JoeBen Bevirt said the company is entering a critical phase as regulatory milestones approach and commercialization plans progress.
Price Action: JOBY shares are trading lower by 10.58% to $16.94 at last check Thursday.
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