Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU) shares are trading lower after the company’s first-quarter revenue guidance fell short of estimates. Multiple analysts lowered their price forecasts following the report.
Keybanc analyst Alex Markgraff maintains Intuit as an Overweight and has lowered the price forecast from $850 to $825.
RBC Capital analyst Rishi Jaluria reiterates Intuit with an Outperform and a $850 price forecast.
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KeyBanc
Markgraff trimmed his price forecast after factoring in Mailchimp headwinds and tougher pricing comparisons.
He credited Intuit with a stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue of $3.83 billion (+20%) versus Street at $3.75 billion, and adjusted operating income of $1.02 billion (26.5% margin) versus consensus at $1.00 billion.
Markgraff highlighted Global Business Solutions Group (GBSG) revenue of $3.01 billion (+18%), led by Online Ecosystem growth of 21% ($2.22 billion), including 40% growth in Intuit Enterprise Suite (IES) and QBO Advanced.
Credit Karma revenue climbed 35% to $638 million, beating expectations, while TurboTax Live revenue grew 47%. He noted that SMB revenue held flat year-over-year but generated higher profit and cash flow.
Looking ahead, Markgraff flagged fiscal 2026 guidance as soft, with revenue of $21.0 billion—$21.19 billion (+12–13%) and adjusted operating income of $8.61 billion—$8.69 billion, both below Street forecasts.
He said GBSG growth guidance of 14–15% reflects a ~150 basis points drag from Mailchimp. He adds that Intuit has not factored AI agent monetization into its fiscal 2026 outlook, which could provide upside later.
Despite trimming estimates, Markgraff remained constructive on Intuit’s fundamentals, citing sustained mid-market momentum, strong TurboTax Live adoption, and confidence in margin expansion.
RBC Capital
Jaluria said the company posted another strong quarter, with fourth-quarter revenue rising 20% year-over-year to $3.83 billion, beating consensus by $88 million, and adjusted EPS of $2.75, topping estimates by $0.09.
The analyst highlighted broad-based strength: GBS grew 18% to $3 billion, led by 23% growth in QuickBooks Online Accounting and 19% in Online Services.
TurboTax Live surged 47%, and Credit Karma accelerated 32%. He flagged mid-market momentum as a key driver, with Intuit Enterprise Suite and QBO Advanced growing approximately 40% and customer growth in the mid-market reaching 23% in FY25.
He also pointed to Intuit’s AI agents, launched in July, which already have millions of users with repeat engagement above expectations. These tools automate workflows like invoice reminders and payments, cutting manual work by up to 60%.
While Jaluria sees significant monetization potential, fiscal 2026 guidance excludes any AI contribution.
Looking ahead, Jaluria acknowledged light guidance for fiscal 2026—revenue of $21.0 billion–$21.2 billion (+12–13% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $22.98–$23.18 (+14–15% YoY)—which weighed on shares, down ~6% after hours.
Still, he emphasized Intuit’s long-term growth targets (GBS 15–20%, TurboTax Live 15–20%, Credit Karma 10–15%) and mid-market opportunities in the $89 billion TAM as reasons for sustained confidence in the stock.
Price Action: INTU stock is down 4.99% at $663.52 at last check on Friday.
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