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Fortune
Fortune
Alice Barlow

Inflation means your grocery bill has skyrocketed ahead of Thanksgiving. Here’s how prices have changed—and why it’s so expensive

(Credit: Moyo Studio—Getty Images)

The price of turkey may have dropped, but Americans will still see higher grocery costs ahead of Thanksgiving.

Americans are paying an average of 16% less for turkey this year. The bad news? That extra money will have to cover the increased price of side dishes, according to a new report from Wells Fargo.

Customers can expect to pay $1.37 per pound for a Thanksgiving turkey, compared with $1.63 per pound last year, according to the report. The popular poultry has become more affordable thanks to a drop in Avian flu cases and a growing bird population.

You can also add lower egg prices on your list of things to be thankful for this holiday season. Prices reached record highs in 2022 after the avian flu reduced the number of available egg-laying hens. At their highest, consumers could expect to pay $5.37 per dozen. Now, the Consumer Price Index reports the average price for a dozen eggs is $2.07. 

The side dish economy hasn't been so fortunate.

Ham, potato, tomato prices soar

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that “food-at-home” costs (groceries) have risen 2.4% over the last 12 months.

Holiday favorites are feeling the heat as the cost of production increases the retail price consumers pay. Potatoes are up 2.7% from last year, ham 5.2%, and tomatoes 0.6%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

And finding motivation to be healthy is getting even harder as broccoli, cauliflower, and celery prices are up 25%. Leafy greens prices are up 16.7%, according to Wells Fargo

A can of cranberries will cost you 60% more than it did last year.

Two things that are slightly more affordable this year? Avocados and butter.

The Hass Avocado board has reported a downward trend in price. Prices have rolled to $1.13 after hitting an annual high in September of $1.25. Increased production means more avocados at the “ripest” price for consumers. 

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) also reported a small decrease in butter nationally.  Grade AA butter averaged $3.27 per pound, down two cents from the last week of October.

Why are groceries so expensive?

So what’s with all these price fluctuations? Delays in produce crops from California, after effects from the Avian Flu, and climate change have impacted kitchen staples. Tomatoes experienced a late crop which led to 16% decrease in shipments, but this small delay should fix itself over time. 

You can also thank cows for the savings on butter. Their increased production have led churning rates to double since early October. Although Western availability still remains "snug" by USDA standards, the Eastern and Midwest regions are improving.

Some politicians even blame corporate price gouging for the inflated prices. Chobani CEO Hamdi Ulukaya believes corporate decisions are partly to blame. Even though production is high, prices haven't adjusted down to reflect the change yet.

“Shrinkflation” may also be affecting the dishes hitting your table as retailers charge the same thing for less product. That pie might not show a price difference from last year, but the BLS says some of the ones you purchase are getting smaller. 

Making those dishes from scratch could save you money in the long run. Nielsen reports prepared foods are up 6% and foods like ready-to-eat rice are up 17%.

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