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AAP
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Zac de Silva and Andrew Brown

'Rise on the horizon': inflation fuels rate hike fears

The Reserve Bank will be mulling the latest inflation data before its next interest rate decision. (Susie Dodds/AAP PHOTOS)

Mortgage holders might be spared an interest rate rise at the next Reserve Bank meeting, but fresh inflation figures have placed further pressure on the board for future hikes.

Underlying inflation ticked up for January to 3.4 per cent, up from 3.3 per cent in December.

The Reserve Bank's preferred measure of consumer prices, trimmed mean inflation, increased 0.3 per cent in January, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics figures released on Wednesday.

Headline inflation, which includes a broader spread of goods and services, held steady at 3.8 per cent in the year to January, the same as the December reading.

Chalmers inflation
Treasurer Jim Chalmers says inflation figures have come in higher than the government would like. (Darren England/AAP PHOTOS)

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said stubborn levels of inflation would likely stick around for some time.

"These are the sorts of numbers that we expect to see throughout the first half of the year while the government's energy rebates come off," he told reporters in Brisbane.

"We knew before these numbers that inflation would come in higher than we would like."

The end of federal and state energy rebates has exacerbated inflation increases, with energy costs rising 32.2 per cent in the year to January, compared to 21.5 per cent in the 12 months to December.

Excluding the impact of the rebates, energy prices would have risen by 4.5 per cent in the year to January.

Swimmers seek the shade the Brighton Beach Boxes in Melbourne
Underlying inflation has ticked up slightly for the first month of 2026. (Michael Currie/AAP PHOTOS)

After the Reserve Bank chose to lift interest rates to 3.85 per cent at its February meeting, Bendigo Bank chief economist David Robertson said a second straight rise was not likely.

But more increases were on the cards.

"A range of factors suggest this new tightening cycle will likely be persistent and drawn-out, including the resilience of global trade in the face of tariffs and tight domestic labour and housing markets," he said.

"Although we currently only forecast one more hike this calendar year."

MLC senior economist Bob Cunneen said the inflation data would concern the central bank.

"The Reserve Bank's finger remains on the interest rate trigger, given these persistent price pressures," he said.

"Another interest rate rise is on the horizon for Australia."

A stock image of a residential electricity bill
The end of federal and state energy rebates has exacerbated inflation increases. (Jono Searle/AAP PHOTOS)

Dr Chalmers said the decision to end the energy rebates was a difficult one.

"We know the impact it is having on families and on this data," he said.

"These new numbers are another important reminder that the coming budget will have the right focus on inflation and productivity against a backdrop of global uncertainty."

Shadow treasurer Tim Wilson said removing the energy subsidies had revealed the true picture of inflation.

"Until the government stops pouring debt-petrol onto the inflation fire, the cost of household groceries will continue to go up," he said.

"The cost of the supermarket basket will go up."

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