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The Economic Times
The Economic Times

India 10-year bond yield hits 5-week high on rising oil and war jitters

India's 10-year ​government bond yield rose to a five-week high on ​Tuesday, as fading hopes of a U.S.-Iran peace deal and rising crude oil prices overshadowed a softer-than-expected April inflation reading.

Hopes for a deal dimmed after Donald Trump said ‌a ceasefire with ⁠Iran was "on ⁠life support". Concerns about oil supply deepened after a senior officer in Iran's Islamic ​Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy said Tehran had expanded its definition of the Strait of Hormuz ​into a "vast operational area" far wider than before the war.

India's benchmark 6.48% 2035 bond yield settled at 7.0458%, its highest since April 7 and ​up 1.4 basis points from Monday's close. The ⁠yield on ‌the new 10-year 6.94% 2036 bond was up 2 ​bps at ​7.0033%.

Bond yields move inversely to prices.

Market unease also ⁠grew after Prime Minister Narendra Modi urged citizens to conserve ​fuel and foreign reserves by adopting measures such as ​working from home and curbing travel.

The rupee hit a record low of 95.7375, while stocks erased about $115 billion from the market value of companies listed on the National Stock Exchange.

Separately, India's retail inflation quickened to 3.48% in April, driven by higher food prices, government data showed.

That ‌was lower than a forecast of 3.8% in a Reuters poll. Still, traders remain wary of the potential inflationary ​impact of a ​prolonged war in ⁠the Middle East for net energy importer India.

"The trajectory of inflation will depend on the duration of elevated oil prices and the extent of pass-through ​to domestic consumers," said Avnish Jain, chief investment officer for fixed income at Canara Robeco Mutual Fund.

RATES

The one-year swap rate rose 7.25 bps to 6.045%, while the two-year swap rate jumped 5.25 bps to 6.2825%. The most liquid five-year OIS rate was up 4.5 bps at 6.6750%.

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