Week 1 will prove to be an interesting barometer for the Jets’ 2020 prospects.
Since no NFL team played a preseason game because of the coronavirus pandemic, all anyone knows about each other is what they’ve read or watched online. The Bills are an even trickier opponent since the two teams were so evenly matched last year after splitting two tight contests.
The Jets finished with one of the worst offenses in 2019, so it’s hard to imagine New York having a worse team this season after Joe Douglas completely revamped the offensive line and brought in a few new wide receivers for Sam Darnold. But they could be in for another abysmal offensive season unless Adam Gase changes his gameplan.
At the very least, the beginning of the season gives a level of hope the rest of the year won’t. The possibilities are endless and predictions aren’t based on much other than 2019 tape and fuzzy camera-phone tweets. The Jets have changed a lot since last season but it’s hard to tell how they’ll fare against a playoff-caliber team in the Bills that added weapons on offense and fortified its defense.
As the opener approaches, here’s a look at four keys to the Jets offense vs. the Bills in Week 1.
Run the ball more
This strategy works for three reasons: 1) it tests an improved offensive line, 2) it tests Le’Veon Bell’s athleticism and 3) it goes in lock-step with a trend of run-heavy teams finishing among the league’s best. The top-two scoring offenses (Baltimore and San Francisco) in 2019 were also the top-two rushing offenses and nine of the 10 best rushing teams made the playoffs last season.
The Jets, meanwhile, averaged only 23.93 rushes per game in 2019 – which is below the 26.1 league average. In games where they rushed for their average, they went 1-9. But in games they rushed at least 25 times, they went 6-0. Meanwhile, the Bills were 2-4 in 2019 in games they allowed at least 120 rushing yards.
Now that Bell will have a line featuring Mekhi Becton, Connor McGovern, George Fant, Alex Lews and Greg Van Roten, he should have a better time finding rushing lanes. The Jets also have veteran Frank Gore to run the rock. If the Jets want to improve, running more is their best bet.
Target Jamison Crowder
Jets receivers coach Shawn Jefferson expects Crowder to push for 90 receptions in 2020, and that quest begins Week 1 against the Bills. Crowder saw 27 targets over his two games against the Bills and Darnold should look for him again after he finished last season with a team-high 122 targets and 78 receptions.
Darnold has a few more options at his disposal this season, but the rest of his receiving targets should face solid coverage against a stout Bills defense. Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims are easing back into action after suffering injuries this offseason and will then go against Tre’Davious White and potentially Josh Norman on the outside. Chris Herndon could see a lot of looks, too, but the Bills defense is much better against tight ends than receivers after it allowed the third-fewest receptions and second-fewest yards to tight ends in 2019.
Don’t allow sacks
A huge reason why the Jets offense struggled in 2019 was that it couldn’t keep the quarterback upright. Between Darnold, Trevor Siemian, Luke Falk and David Fales, the Jets were sacked the fourth-most times in the league last year and were 0-7 in games in which they gave up two or more sacks. However, the Jets proved if they protected well, they could perform even better after going 7-2 in games with two sacks or less.
Douglas invested a lot of resources this offseason to make sure he keeps Darnold protected after drafting Becton and spending $42.3 million in guaranteed money on the quartet of McGovern, Lewis, Fant and Van Roten. The line was completely overhauled, but it will have its first test against a Bills defense that finished with 44 sacks in 2019 – 12th-most in the league.
Limit turnovers
Turnovers crushed the Jets in 2019. New York tied for the ninth-most turnovers last year and went 1-4 in games it gave up the ball two more times. But when the Jets turned the ball over fewer than twice, they finished 6-5.
A lot of this was Darnold’s fault: he threw 13 interceptions and lost three of his 11 fumbles. So the buck stops at the quarterback. A better offensive line should do him wonders, but Darnold needs to improve his decision-making if he’s to develop into a franchise quarterback. He only turned the ball over once in his two games against the Bills in 2019, which bodes well for his chances on Sunday.
