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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

Greece launches first bond sale since 2014, as IMF cuts UK growth forecasts - business live

A woman walks past a graffiti reading “This Is All Because of EU - You Are So Dramatic” in Athens last week.
A woman walks past a graffiti reading “This Is All Because of EU - You Are So Dramatic” in Athens last week. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Another day of thrills and spills is over in the City, and 1% has been wiped off the value of the biggest firms lister in London:

Greek bonds rallied today after news of the new debt sale and buyback hit the wires.

This has been welcomed by politicians in Athens, as our correspondent Helena Smith reports:

Senior members in the governing Syriza expressed satisfaction at reaction of markets to the news of Athens’ prospective foray.

Marking the 43rd anniversary of the restoration of democracy to Greece following the collapse of military rule, prime minister Alexis Tsipras highlighted the optimism saying:

“[it] coincides with the decisive restitution of economic stability and the recovery of the country. Now it is the responsibility of all of us to not repeat the mistakes of the past but to build a new Greece.”

It’s not been a great day in the City for shares.

The FTSE 100 index is down 86 points, or 1.1% at 7365 points, with most stocks losing ground.

The news that the International Monetary Fund had downgraded Britain’s growth forecast this morning weighed on the market. Consumer-focused companies, such as Next, were among the fallers.

Exporters also suffered from the recent recovery in the pound, which gained 0.25% to $1.3026 today.

Connor Campbell of SpreadEx says:

The FTSE was consistently the market’s worse performer this Monday, dropping nearly 90 points to plunge back below 7400.

There were multiple reasons for the index’s decline, from the IMF cutting the UK’s 2017 growth forecasts, to sterling’s rebound and notable losses from the likes of easyJet, Next and Reckitt Benckiser.

The FTSE 100 by sector today

If you’re just tuning in, here’s our news story about Greece’s plan to issue fresh bonds for the first time in three years.

Here’s the latest from Athens:

..but US house sales slow

Another newsflash from America, but this one is less encouraging.

The number of home sales slumped by 1.8% in June, suggesting the housing market may be cooling.

The annual rate of existing home sales dropped to 5.52m, down from 5.62m in June, and lower than Wall Street expected.

US company growth hits six-month high

Newsflash! America’s private sector is growing at its fastest pace since January

US companies are expanding in July, thanks to a boom in new orders that is driving employment up.

That’s according to Markit’s latest healthcheck on US manufacturing and service sector companies, just released.

Markit’s flash US composite output index has hit 54.2 in July, up from 53.9 in June. That’s a six-month high; any reading over 50 shows growth.

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, says the figures show America’s economy is gaining momentum, but it’s not exactly racing.

“The overall rate of expansion remains modest rather than impressive. The surveys are historically consistent with annualized GDP growth of approximately 2%, but the signs are that growth could accelerate further in coming months.

“Most encouraging was an upturn in new order inflows to the second-highest seen over the past two years, which helped push the rate of job creation to the highest so far this year, indicative of non-farm payrolls growing at a rate of around 200,000.

“The principal weak spot in the economy remained exports, with foreign goods orders dropping – albeit only marginally – for the first time since last September, often blamed on the strength of th

Wolf Piccoli of Teneo Intelligence believes this bond sale is meant to give Alexis Tsipras some respite from political pressures back home.

He writes:

The government of Prime Minister Alexi Tsipras is pushing ahead with a bond issue. This is part of an attempt to gain some breathing space amid domestic political problems. The government would like to raise around €4bn; the bond is a switch and tender offer for a €3bn euro-bond issued by the Samaras government in 2014, which matures in April 2019.

Athens will also issue new euro-denominated fixed rate notes due in 2022 for cash. The related tender process will take place on 25 July.

Tsipras’s Syriza party have fallen behind in the polls, with the right-leaning New Democracy opening up a substantial lead....

Greece’s new foray back into the financial markets will play a big role in setting the mood ahead of its expiry of its €86bn bailout next year.

If it attracts strong interest from investors it will play a crucial role in quashing suggestions that the debt-stricken country requires a new credit line, or fourth bailout, at that time to keep default at bay.

Instead, those who think a clean exit possible will be strengthened.

That was quick!

Yanis Varoufakis has hit back at Alexis Tsipras’s criticism over his tenure as finance minister.

In a letter to the Guardian, Varoufakis says:

Either I was the right choice to spearhead the “collision” with the troika of Greece’s lenders because my plans were convincing, or my plans were not convincing and, thus, I was the wrong choice as his first finance minister.

Arguing, as Mr Tsipras does, that I was both the right choice for the initial confrontation and that my plan B was so vague it wasn’t worth the trouble of even talking about is disingenuous, albeit insightful, for it reveals the impossibility of maintaining a radical critique of his predecessors while adopting the Tina (There Is No Alternative) doctrine.

More here:

Greece’s prime minister set the scene for this week’s debt sale by telling the Guardian that the worst of the debt crisis was now over.

In an interview with my colleague Helena Smith published today, Alexis Tsipras declared that:

“We can now say with certainty that the economy is on the up … Slowly, slowly, what nobody believed could happen, will happen. We will extract the country from the crisis … and in the end that will be judged.”

This interview has caused waves in Greece, where almost the entire media have reproducing excerpts -- including Tsipras’s concession that he made “big mistakes” since wining power in January 2015.

Other highlights include the leftist leader’s dismissal of his former finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis’ Plan B, the contingency programme the self-declared “erratic Marxist” had prepared in the event of debt-stricken Greece being ejected from the euro.

Tsipras broke his silence about Varoufakis’s scheme, labelling it “weak and ineffective.”

“Perhaps the moment will come when certain truths are told ... when we got to the point of reading what he presented as his plan B it was so vague, it wasn’t worth the trouble of even talking about,....

It was simply weak and ineffective.”

In terms of reaction watch this space!

This chart shows how Greek bond yields have receded from their crisis-era heights, as confidence has slowly returned.

Greece’s offer to buy back some of its existing five-year bonds is good news for investors.

Anyone who bought the debt last year, when they traded below their face value, can now sell them back for a profit:

Updated

The Greek finance ministry has set a goal of a 4.2% interest rate on the bond, reports Helena Smith in Athens.

But banking sources believe that will be hard to achieve and say an interest rate of between 4.3% to 4.5% is much more likely.

Valuation will take place Tuesday 25th July, our sources add.

The test exit is crucial to Greece not only testing markets, from which it has been essentially exiled since the start of its great economic crisis, but weaning itself off borrowed bailout funds.

Why is Greece launching a new bond sale now?

One reason is that Greek bonds have been strengthening in recent weeks, showing that investors believe the risk of default has fallen.

Reuters’ Alice Gledhill explains:

The €4bn 4.75% 2019 bonds have been trading at a record low yield, bid below 3.5% according to Thomson Reuters prices, making it an opportune time for the country to issue its first deal since 2014.

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As well as issuing new bonds, Greece is inviting investors who hold its existing five-year bonds to redeem them.

Those bonds expire in 2019, but Athens is prepared to swap them for cash now.

Here’s the details:

Greek bond issue

The full official announcement is online here.

Greece to launch new bond sale

Breaking news from Athens! Greece’s government is returning to the financial markets for the first time since 2014.

Six banks have been hired to bring new five-year bonds to the markets, two years after Greece nearly plunged out of the eurozone altogether.

Reuters has the details:

The Hellenic Republic, rated Caa2/B-/CCC/CCCH, has mandated BNP Paribas, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and HSBC as joint lead managers for a five-year euro bond, according to a lead.

The issue is subject to market conditions and the results of a concurrent switch and tender offer.

Greece will be speaking to investors this afternoon, so we should get more details about how much it hopes to borrow, and on what terms.

If the sale it successful, it could help Greece to exit its long cycle of austerity and rescue packages.

Late last Friday, S&P upgraded its outlook on Greek government debt from stable to “positive”, partly thanks to hopes that Greece’s creditors could finally grant it debt relief.

Today’s move comes two weeks after we reported in this blog that the Greek government was planning to return to the markets this summer.

The interest rates on Greek bonds has fallen away from their levels at the height of the crisis, fuelling hopes that it could fund itself without the help of painful bailouts.

The IMF’s downgrade growth forecasts have caused a stir in Westminster this morning.

John McDonnell MP, Labour’s Shadow Chancellor, has just issued a statement, saying:

“Today’s report from the IMF is yet another blow for the Government and its continued austerity agenda that is holding our country back.

“It further reveals that this government has no real plan for Brexit and no real plan to deal with the problem of earnings not keeping up with prices, which is undermining growth and risking living standards.

“Only a Labour government will end austerity and provide the vital programme of investment to boost growth in our economy, underpinned by our Fiscal Credibility Rule, which our country desperately needs.

Sky News

And this is from Heidi Alexander MP, leading supporter of Open Britain:

“These figures underline how the uncertainty and loss of confidence caused by the Brexit vote is hampering our economy. If the Government persists with its plan for a hard and destructive Brexit, our growth figures are likely to get even worse.

“Leaving the largest trading bloc in the world for an inferior deal will not be offset by the illusory promise of quick new trade deals with other countries around the world. The result will be less trade that leaves us all poorer.

“To support our economy and protect jobs, the best deal for Britain will be for us to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union, thus continuing to enjoy totally free trade with the world’s biggest market on our doorstep.”

True plight of shrinkflation revealed

Magnifying glass.

Have you ever popped a new bag of crisps open, only to find it contains more air than deliciously fried potato? Or found yourself curiously peckish after wolfing down your favourite chocolate bar?

If so, you’ve fallen victim to shrinkflation - the practice where manufacturers quietly cut their product sizes without changing the price.

In a new report, the Office for National Statistics shows that more than 2,500 products have shrunk in size over the past five years but prices have stayed the same.

UK shrinkflation

Food and drink are particularly vulnerable, perhaps because they are vulnerable to fluctuating commodity costs.

The ONS says we can’t blame it on Brexit, though; this phenomenon has existed for a long time.

Today’s report explains:

Weight changes occur most often in food products rather than any other item category. There are also consistently more reductions across both the food category and non-food items.

However, despite some media speculation, there has not been a change in trend since the EU referendum – our data shows that shrinkflation has been used in practice consistently across the past 5 years.

Consumer journalist Harry Wallop has been tweeting some particularly egregious examples:

However, the ONS reckons shrinkflation doesn’t actually undermine its inflation data, as it tracks these changes and adjusts its data accordingly.

Updated

The IMF’s new forecasts highlight the dangers posed by the Brexit talks, says Mihir Kapadia, CEO of Sun Global Investments.

He writes:

“With the IMF’s growth forecast for the UK cut from 2% to 1.7% for the year, this means there is again a focus on the debate about the effect of Brexit on the country’s business. While the IMF’s downgrade has been based on ‘tepid performance’, the ultimate impact of Brexit continues to remain unclear. The key factor which threatens to derail the economy and significantly reduce market confidence is the potential for either the Brexit talks collapsing or reaching stalemate.

At the moment, there appears to be negligible progress on the talks and the IMF certainly would have factored the risk of talks stalling in reducing their economic growth forecast.”

Here’s a handy reminder of today’s IMF forecast changes:

European markets suffer losses

A wave of anxiety is sweeping through Europe’s stock markets this morning.

In London, the FTSE 100 index has shed 64 points or 0.9% to 7388.

EasyJet is one of the big fallers, down 3%, after rival budget airline Ryanair announced plans for price cuts this summer.

Joshua Mahony of IG explains:

The FTSE has suffered a rude awakening to the new week, with the gains of last week clearly left in the rear-view mirror. One of the biggest drags we have seen has come from the airline sector, with Ryanair’s warning of a potential air fare war in the coming months leading to sharp falls for easyJet and IAG, the owner of airlines including British Airways, Iberia and Aer Lingus.

This morning the IMF cut its growth forecast for the UK for the first time since the EU referendum over a year ago. Chief amongst its concerns is the tepid economic performance seen in the first quarter of 2017, with the enactment of Article 50 coinciding with a deterioration in both business and consumer confidence.

European markets are also in the red.

Germany’s DAX has shed 0.5%, dragged by car companies such as Volkswagen and Daimler. That follows reports that the German auto industry colluded in a “secret technology cartel” for the past 20 years.

European stock markets this morning
European stock markets this morning Photograph: Thomson Reuters

UK businesses should heed the IMF’s warning that Britain’s economy is weakening, says Markus Kuger, Senior Economist at Dun & Bradstreet:

“The IMF’s downgrade reflects the undercurrent of political and economic uncertainty in the UK, as the impact of Brexit on the economy remains unclear. The first quarter of the year saw a mediocre economic performance and Dun & Bradstreet rates the level of risk in the UK as ‘deteriorating’.

The slow progress of Brexit negotiations is creating considerable unpredictability for businesses operating in and with the UK. This has only been intensified by the results of the general election in June, as the government’s narrow parliamentary majority is further complicating the process of leaving the EU.

“The best advice for businesses is to closely monitor the economic climate and the progress of EU negotiations, and use the latest data and analytics to assess risk and identify potential opportunities. As Brexit negotiations progress organisations should get a clearer picture of the future, but until then careful management of relationships with suppliers, customers, prospects and partners will be key to navigating through these uncertain times.”

IMF's Global Outlook: What the experts say

The International Monetary Fund’s new growth forecasts are getting plenty of coverage this morning.

The Financial Times reports that the Fund expects the “broadest synchronised upswing” in a decade.

Better growth in China, the euro zone and Japan is making up for a slower-than-expected US economy and Donald Trump’s stalled economic promises as well as a faltering UK, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday.

In its latest update, the IMF left its April forecasts for 3.5 per cent global growth this year and 3.6 per cent next year unchanged. But the lack of change in the world’s headline growth masked what the IMF said was a rotation in the sources of growth.

Sky News flag up that the UK has been downgraded, while Europe’s recovery looks to be gathering pace:

The International Monetary Fund has lowered its growth forecast for the UK to 1.7% for 2017.

The organisation said a weaker than expected performance meant it was revising expectations from the 2% it predicted in April.

The US also had its economic forecast downgraded to 2.1% from 2.3%.

It comes in contrast to major European countries including Germany, France, Italy and Spain, where growth exceeded expectations.

Germany has been revised up by 0.2 points to 1.8%, France by 0.1 points to 1.5%, while Italy and Spain have both been revised up by 0.5 points to 1.3% and 3.1% respectively.

Reuters sums up the global picture:

The International Monetary Fund kept its growth forecasts for the world economy unchanged for this year and next, although it revised up growth expectations for the eurozone and China.

In an updated World Economic Outlook published on Monday, the IMF said global gross domestic product would grow 3.5 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018, unchanged from estimates issued in April.

“While risks around the global growth forecast appear broadly balanced in the near term, they remain skewed to the downside over the medium term,” the IMF said in updated forecasts released in the Malaysian capital, Kuala Lumpur.

But...forecasts are made to be missed. Steve Hawkes of The Sun reminds us that the IMF predicted Britain would plunge into recession if it voted to leave the EU.....

Ranko Berich of Monex Europe is refreshingly sceptical about the IMF’s crystal ball.....

Here’s Julien Lafargue, European Equities Strategist at JP Morgan, on today’s eurozone PMI reports:

Following one of the best quarters in the past six years, a slowdown in the Eurozone’s pace of expansion was to be expected. Yet, economies in the region continue to grow strongly, and the details of today’s survey point to a continuation of this trend in the coming months.

Encouragingly, the recent strength of the Euro does not appear to be cited as a concern at this point with new export order growth in Germany’s goods producing sector accelerating slightly in July.

If sustained, the Euro’s appreciation may represent a headwind. However, at this stage, we believe it is not enough to derail the recovery in the region and we would expect the ECB to prevent further appreciation if it comes to a point where it jeopardizes the region’s economic momentum.

That appreciation has continued this morning, with the euro hitting a two-year high.

Eurozone recovery continues, but growth slips a little

Breaking: Companies across the eurozone are continuing to expand robustly, although growth has dipped to a six-month low.

That’s according to Markit’s latest healthcheck on the euro area, including this morning’s figures from France and Germany.

Manufacturing firms led the way, with strong order book growth, rising backlogs and healthy job creation during this month.

However... the figures are a little weaker than in the spring.

Eurozone PMIs
Eurozone PMIs Photograph: Markit

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, says the data suggests Europe is still growing strongly (echoing the IMF’s upbeat comments this morning).

“The July fall in the PMI indicates that the eurozone’s recent growth spurt lost momentum for a second successive month, but still remained impressive.

“The survey data are historically consistent with GDP rising at a quarterly rate of 0.6%, cooling slightly from a pace of over 0.7% signalled for the second quarter.

“The slowing pace of economic growth signalled by the surveys and the accompanying easing of price pressures adds to the belief that ECB policymakers will be in no rush to taper policy, and will leave all options open until the central bank sees a clearer picture of the sustainability of the upturn.

“It’s too early to know for sure whether the economy has merely hit a speed bump or whether the upturn is already starting to fade. The evidence so far points to the former, with the economy hitting bottlenecks due to the speed of the recent upturn.

“Forward-looking indicators such as new order inflows remain elevated, suggesting robust growth will be sustained in coming months. Job creation is consequently booming as companies seek to expand capacity in line with growing demand.

German growth slows

Germany’s ‘flash PMIs’ have just been released, and they suggest private sector growth has hit a six-month low.

Manufacturing and service sector companies in Europe’s largest economy reported that activity rose at a slower rate this month.

This pulled the ‘Flash Germany Composite Output Index’ down to 55.1 in July, down from 56.4 in June.

That suggests Germany’s private sector is growing that the slowest rate since January, after a very strong start to 2017.

German PMI

So what changed this month?

Well, Germany companies report that growth in manufacturing output and total new orders slowed this month, even though there is still “high demand” from customers in both Europe and Asia.

Trevor Balchin, Senior Economist at IHS Markit, believes Germany is still enjoying “strong underlying growth”.

The easing seen in July follows the strongest quarter in six years, and manufacturing continued to expand at a historically sharp rate. New export order growth in the goods- producing sector accelerated slightly and suppliers remained under substantial pressure.

French factory growth hits six-year high

A French flag

Boom! France’s factories are enjoying their best month since 2011, thanks to a surge in new orders.

That’s according to the latest French PMI report from Markit, just released.

Markit found that manufacturing output accelerated to its fastest rate in 75 months, jumping to 55.4 in July from 54.8 in June.

Service sector growth slowed a little, sending the services PMI down to 55.9 from 56.9.

Any reading over 50 shows growth, so this indicates that the French economy is still growing strongly.

French companies reported that new business picked up strongly this month, creating larger backlogs of work and encouraging them to take on more staff.

Annabel Fiddes, Economist at IHS Markit, explains:

“Steep increases in output and employment were key takeaways from the latest release, with manufacturing firms noting the quickest rise in staff numbers for nearly 17 years.

“Further increases in total new orders and backlogs suggest that companies will continue to ramp up output and add to payrolls going forward, and marks a solid start to the second half of the year.”

IMF's global outlook: the key points

Despite cutting its UK and US growth forecasts, the IMF still thinks the global recovery is ‘firming’.

That’s because it revised up its growth expectations for the eurozone to 1.9% this year, up from 1.7% in April.

For China, the IMF expects stronger growth of 6.7% in 2017, up 0.1 percentage point. Japan’s growth forecast this year has also been raised, from 1.2% to 1.3%.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, the Fund says:

Growth has been revised up for Japan and especially the euro area, where positive surprises to activity in late 2016 and early 2017 point to solid momentum.

China’s growth projections have also been revised up, reflecting a strong first quarter of 2017 and expectations of continued fiscal support. Inflation in advanced economies remains subdued and generally below targets; it has also been declining in several emerging economies, such as Brazil, India, and Russia....

Growth projections for 2017 have been revised up for many euro area countries, including France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, where growth for the first quarter of 2017 was generally above expectations. This, together with positive growth revisions for the last quarter of 2016 and high-frequency indicators for the second quarter of 2017, indicate stronger momentum in domestic demand than previously anticipated.

This infographic has more details:

IMF: key points

Updated

The IMF has also cut its growth forecast for the US, having concluded that Donald Trump will struggle to deliver the infrastructure plan he promised.

Growth this year has been cut from 2.3% to 2.1%, while 2018’s forecast has been slashed from 2.5% to 2.1%.

It says:

While the markdown in the 2017 forecast reflects in part the weak growth outturn in the first quarter of the year, the major factor behind the growth revision, especially for 2018, is the assumption that fiscal policy will be less expansionary than previously assumed, given the uncertainty about the timing and nature of U.S. fiscal policy changes.

Market expectations of fiscal stimulus have also receded.

Big Ben.

Britain’s finance ministry has responded to the news that the International Monetary Fund have cut their UK growth forecasts this year.

A Treasury spokesperson insisted “the fundamentals of our economy are strong”, adding that the ongoing Brexit talks are crucial:

“This forecast underscores exactly why our plans to increase productivity and ensure we get the very best deal with the EU are vitally important.”

The agenda: IMF cuts UK growth forecast

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

A new week brings new concerns over Britain’s economy.

The International Monetary Fund has cut its forecasts for UK growth this year, citing recent evidence that the economy is weakening.

The IMF now expects Britain’s GDP to only expand by 1.7% this year, down from 2% growth forecast in April.

If they’re right, it suggests that Brexit uncertainty may be hurting the UK.

Maurice Obstfeld, the IMF’s economic counsellor, pointed to a marked change in early 2017. He said the UK’s growth forecast had been lowered based on its “tepid performance” so far this year, adding:

“The ultimate impact of Brexit on the United Kingdom remains unclear.”

The IMF still expect the UK to grow by 1.5% in 2018, but said one key risk facing the global economy was that the Brexit talks would end in failure.

But the Fund is rather more optimistic about Europe.

Germany’s growth has been revised up by 0.2 points to 1.8%, France by 0.1 points to 1.5%, while Italy and Spain have both been revised up by 0.5 points to 1.3% and 3.1% respectively.

Here’s our full take:

Also coming up today:

We get a new healthcheck on the eurozone economy this morning, with the latest ‘flash PMI’ surveys from data firm Markit.

They are expected to show that private sector companies in Germany and France continued to grow strongly this month, after posting their fastest growth since 2011 earlier this year.

Royal Bank of Canada say:

The day’s main data release are ‘flash’ PMIs for the euro area, France and Germany. These are the readings for July so will provide an important indication of how the euro area economy has begun Q3.

The June readings pointed to a slight loss of momentum at the end of the second quarter but that was coming off their highest level in six years in April and May and, at 56.4, the average composite reading for the quarter was still pointing to activity picking up from Q1.

The fall between May and June was attributable to the service sector; by contrast the manufacturing PMI remained comfortably above its long-run average. With other indicators of domestic activity remaining robust we see some scope for the services PMI to recover a little this month and expect it to rise to 55.6 with the manufacturing reading remaining unchanged from its recent elevated level at 57.4.

The agenda:

  • 8am BST: French manufacturing and service sector PMI for July
  • 8.30am BST: German manufacturing and service sector PMI for July
  • 9am BST: Eurozone manufacturing and service sector PMI for July
  • 2.45pm BST: US manufacturing and service sector PMI for July
  • 3pm: UK home sales for June

Updated

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