“UFC World Champion. Undefeated 15-0,” read Ilia Topuria’s Instagram bio. He was not UFC champion; he was not 15-0. Not for another week or so.
Perhaps Topuria’s words aggravated fans so greatly because of the arrogance behind them; maybe they were aggravating because, not so deep down, those fans knew the featherweight’s words might be more of a spoiler than a prediction.
So, when Topuria backed Alexander Volkanovski up to the fence at UFC 298, a sickening, ominous feeling must have risen from the pit of many a stomach. And when the Spanish-Georgian drilled a right hook into the chin of the most dominant 145lb champion in a decade, removing the strength from Volkanovski’s legs, the light from his eyes and the cognition from his mind, what was there to do but bow a head in grudging acceptance? To bow down to the new featherweight king.
Topuria’s second-round debilitation of Volkanovski was his first of a fan favourite and divisional great in 2024. Later in the year, he spoke similarly prophetically of what he would do to Max Holloway, and proceeded to do it.
Holloway offered more resistance than Volkanovski, but a sense of inevitability flared into something more urgent when, in round three, Topuria deceived Holloway with a beautiful double-feint – a jab upstairs and left hook to the body, neither intended to land – before jettisoning a right cross into the former champion’s face with a gruesome crack.
Even one of MMA’s great chins could not withstand the force of a blow like that, and within seconds, Topuria produced a left hook that drove Holloway to the canvas with a violent heft.
With all of this in mind, it was natural for fans to fear for another beloved icon when Topuria said this month: “I feel so powerful at 155lb. When I touch Oliveira’s chin, it’ll explode.”
Whatever happens in the main event of UFC 317, where Topuria moves up to fight Charles Oliveira for the vacant lightweight title, the Brazilian’s chin will not literally explode. To state as much is to state the obvious. Yet such is Topuria’s conviction in his sentiments, and so consistent is the 28-year-old in manifesting them, that it wouldn’t be shocking if officials from the Nevada State Athletic Commission were seen hoovering up shards of Oliveira’s jaw by the end of Saturday night.
That is the fear of many an MMA fan as the unbeaten Topuria, who vacated the featherweight belt in February, surprisingly early into his reign, prepares to take on “Do Bronx” in Las Vegas. However, as much as the paragraphs above insinuate a disdain for Topuria among the MMA fanbase, that would be a mischaracterisation of “El Matador”’s relationship with the fandom.
Topuria is disliked by some, adored by others, but respected by most. In this way and others, his career so far has emulated that of Conor McGregor’s early days in the UFC. The Irishman called his shot time and again, irking then disproving his detractors, and ultimately collecting the featherweight title with a 13-second demolition of the great Jose Aldo. Without making a defence of the belt, McGregor immediately turned his attention to the lightweight title, which he soon tore from Eddie Alvarez with one of the sport’s finest clinics.
Similarly, Topuria did not dwell at 145lb, recording a single title defence before deciding he did not want – or need – to keep cutting weight. While he will not follow McGregor in becoming a simultaneous two-weight champion, the Spanish-Georgian can still join a small group of two-division UFC titlists. Oliveira, meanwhile, is aiming to become a two-time champion, having held the lightweight strap from 2021 until 2022.
And to write off the Brazilian here would be unwise. He is, after all, statistically the most dangerous fighter to have ever graced the Octagon, with more stoppage wins and more submissions than any other competitor.
So often, those finishes have come from the jiu-jitsu specialist, 35, pressuring opponents into mistakes. He drives an astounding pace, flitting forward with front kicks, constricting opponents in clinches, and packing a surprising punch for his lanky frame when he finds the right boxing range.
Yet Do Bronx also has a proclivity for getting dropped and flirting with danger. Sometimes, yes, he’ll seemingly fall in a bid to lure opponents to the ground, where he is serpentine and suffocating. But the chances of simulating a knockdown against Topuria are slim.
Topuria, who has limited but relevant experience at lightweight, at times exhibits effortless power; at others, he swings for the fences and splinters them. Like Oliveira, he enjoys stalking forward, so the outcome on Saturday may depend on who can impose that motion on the other.
But even if Oliveira can tie up Topuria, can he launch his trademark knees and elbows before El Matador produces the kind of body hooks that have served him so well throughout his career?
Truthfully, there is an air of inevitability (there’s that word again) around Topuria finding the shot to put Oliveira down and out. In typically confident fashion, however, Topuria has even teased a submission of the greatest submission artist in UFC history. “I feel sorry for Charles,” he said. “Whatever is least painful for him, that’s what I’ll do, because I like him a lot.”
A submission of Oliveira would be Topuria’s boldest statement of all – more audacious than any verbal output, if you can believe it. Some fans and pundits wouldn’t dare to entertain that result, yet it might not be as shocking as one would think.
Islam Makhachev forced Oliveira to tap in 2022, as his wrestling trumped Do Bronx’s jiu-jitsu after a knockdown, and Oliveira was previously submitted three times as a professional. Topuria is known as one of the UFC’s sharpest boxers, but his jiu-jitsu is underrated. He has not often needed it in recent fights, but it was that strand of his skillset that drew a submission of grappling specialist Bryce Mitchell in 2022. Then there is Topuria’s wrestling, which contributed to his clinic against Josh Emmett in 2023.
Topuria’s eclectic game brought him to featherweight gold, and now it has brought him to the cusp of lightweight glory – and to Oliveira.
Maybe Oliveira can halt Topuria’s frightening momentum. Most fans, however, would admit that Topuria’s lightweight coronation feels like it is just one big punch away. Maybe even one slick choke. It simply feels inevitable.
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